Modeling and forecasting tourism demand: the case of flows from Mainland China to Taiwan

The study of tourism demand is attracting more and more attention. Hence, it is important to understand the variables that affect tourism demand and to forecast the demand. Many studies have been conducted to analyze the demands in various countries. Recently, China has been expected to become one of the largest originators of outbound tourists in the world. Hence, it is interesting to explore what the variables are that affect the Mainland Chinese arrivals to Taiwan and to forecast its corresponding tourism demand. This study applies neural networks to select proper models, and then to forecast the demand.     

Intermediate inputs,external rebalancing and relative price adjustment

The traditional multi-sector macro model without production inputs is a value-added trade model. This paper shows that calibrating such a misspecified value-added trade model to available gross-flow trade data – a common practice in the literature – can lead to mismeasured (i) preference weights and (ii) price elasticities. Further, the calibrated model can give substantially different predictions regarding the relative price response to external rebalancing, when compared to a preferred alternative model with inputs that is consistent with gross-flow trade data. We find that mismeasured preference weights and price elasticities both contribute sizably to deviations in model predictions and estimate correctly-measured parameters for the value-added trade model.     

Poverty effects of Russia's WTO accession: Modeling “real” households with endogenous productivity effects

We employ a computable general equilibrium model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. We incorporate all 55,098 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as agents in the model. The model includes FDI in services and Dixit–Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects in imperfectly competitive goods and services sectors, features which are crucial to the results. We show that incorporating the diversity of households though a real household model is important for assessing household impacts, but getting the key model features right is equally important.     

Methods and models for international comparative approaches to real estate development

Real estate development is a significant factor in planning the built environment. It shapes the way people live and work, and by doing so enables human activity to evolve. Real estate development forms a contemporary reflection of social, economic, environmental, and political forces at hand. Furthermore, due to globalization, we are increasingly witnessing similar trends for space despite institutional differences existing between countries and cities contained within their national borders. In this conceptual paper, we place a firm rationale towards international comparative real estate development study. Furthermore, we demonstrate current international comparative methods and a range of real estate development models, set against a new conceptual model in this field. It is put forward that this new model can be used within international comparative methods for study of real estate development both within and between national boundaries.     

Improving new technology venture performance under direct and indirect network externality conditions

This study compares the effectiveness of five responses to external uncertainty in markets with network externalities: avoidance, imitation, control, cooperation, and real options reasoning as a form of strategic flexibility. Our analysis of 385 new technology ventures shows that direct and indirect network externalities have opposite effects on the effectiveness of these strategies. Moreover, under network externalities, attempts to make ventures less dependent upon environmental instabilities perform differently compared to attempts to control the environment. Finally, we show that real options reasoning does not always perform better under conditions of higher uncertainty, such as uncertainty due to direct network externalities.     

Determinants of repurchase intentions of real estate agent services: Direct and indirect effects of perceived ethicality

Research on the psychological determinants of consumer repurchase decisions for professional services is limited. The authors focus on real estate agents and develop a model of determinants of repurchase intentions of agent services. The model was tested on a sample of clients (property sellers) for a Scandinavian real estate agent. The perceived ethicality of the service provider was found to influence repurchase intentions in three different ways. Clients’ co-production motivation moderated (increased) the effect of perceived ethicality. The findings have important implications for researchers and managers of real estate agent services.     

基于房价收入比与售租比对我国房地产价格的分析

针对我国房地产价格自2004年以来出现的不断大幅上涨的现实,本文通过房价收入比、售租比两项指标,对于我国房价高到了何种程度,以及这种房价高涨现象背后所隐藏的经济规律进行了较深入的分析。最后,对于政府如何严格规范我国的房地产市场秩序、如何审慎监管流入房地产行业的国有资产以及如何完善对低收入群体的住房保障,提出了几点建议。     

Real estate franchising: The case of Coldwell Banker expansion into China

This article discusses the Chinese real estate market, with special reference to Shanghai, and depicts an interview with Taiwan's largest real estate company, which bought the master international franchising rights of Coldwell Banker for China. As China's real estate market only recently opened to foreign investment, and since franchising in China is in its infancy, this article provides a unique examination of international franchising into a new product market area in the country. In addition, the article highlights some practices that could be adopted by professional service firms in their international expansion and discusses post-WTO implications to real estate franchising in China.     

中国外贸条件和实际汇率关系的实证分析

根据相关统计数据的研究,中国贸易条件变化与中美通货膨胀率间存在如下关系:中国贸易条件改善之时,正是中国通货膨胀高于美国之期;而中国贸易条件恶化之时,亦是中国通货膨胀低于美国之期。而购买力平价说又将两国汇率变动情况与两国间通货膨胀率相联接,由此,笔者拟以通货膨胀率为中介,对中国外贸条件和实际汇率变动关系加以实证分析,并对当前人民币汇率走势和解决中国外贸条件恶化的方式提出稍许评述。