商业银行房地产贷款信用风险定量压力测试方法研究

本文针对银行业房地产贷款压力测试难以有效开展的实务性问题,提出并详细说明了采用期权理论来计量在不同假设情境下的违约概率变化量,以实现房地产贷款信用风险压力测试的方法,以及利用该方法实现自下而上地对房地产贷款信用风险进行定量压力测试的方案。最后,本文以一个案例来辅助说明上述方法的具体应用,以及对该方法的评价。     

修正的房价收入比:衡量我国城市房价泡沫水平的更优指标

改革开放以来,我国城镇居民可支配收入连续多年高速增长,本文通过构建一个包含收入增长的模型,估算城镇居民可承受的按揭还款房价收入比极值。在此基础上,考虑到实际购房分为首付和按揭还款两部分,提出了修正的房价收入比这一新指标,用于衡量首付部分或按揭还款部分是否存在泡沫。通过实证检验,发现我国房地产市场的泡沫主要集中在首付部分,且当首付比例超过20%以后,所考察的13个重点城市的房价都存在严重的泡沫。     

美国房地产投资信托基金(REITs)分析

美国房地产投资信托基金(REITs)在房地产实现证券化过程中发挥着重要的作用,对美国房地产业的发展十分重要。本文介绍了美国房地产投资信托基金定义和发展历史,阐述了REITs金融分析的主要指标、对REITs经营活动的规定,并分析了REITs对美国房地产业发展的意义。     

Business cycle, unemployment benefits and productivity shocks

The dimension of aggregate fluctuations is quite different between the European and US economies. Such a result fully justifies attention to non-Walrasian features for improving the empirical performance of the RBC model. In this paper, we introduce two features, present in European economies, into the standard general setting of the infinite-horizon stochastic growth paradigm: trade union behavior and unemployment benefits. We show that this non-Walrasian economy (i) improves the ability to account for the stylized facts, (ii) displays realistic features in explaining the employment and productivity puzzles, (iii) may account for contractions.     

真实盈余管理动机下R&D削减行为与创新产出——数量、质量与效率

以2007—2017年沪深A股上市公司为样本，基于零盈余、上期盈余和分析师预测盈余对真实盈余管理动机进行刻画识别，检验公司在真实盈余管理动机下削减R&D支出对创新产出的影响。研究发现，与其它动机相比，真实盈余管理动机下的R&D削减会导致未来三期更低的创新产出、创新质量及创新效率。进一步，扩大盈余管理识别范围、使用全样本进行双重差分、替换被解释变量分别检验后，结果依然稳健。     

Space Grabs: Colonizing the Vertical City

Much attention has been paid recently to land grabs in rural and urban areas of the global South, but relatively little attention has been paid to such activities in the third dimension—vertical space. Yet vertical space has also been increasingly colonized, as manifest in the transformation of mega-city skylines through the proliferating number and height of high-rises in both central cities and peri-urban developments. We investigate how floor area ratio policies, originally designed to control densification, have been reworked to facilitate densification through floor area uplift. Thus a tool originally developed to advance public welfare has been used to facilitate the profitability of real estate projects for developers and to benefit local governments. Taking DKI Jakarta as our case study, we sketch out the coevolution of this policy with urban regimes, focusing on the mid-2010s when compensation measures were formalized and made transparent. By using a particular project in Jakarta's central business district we show how the benefits of floor area uplift favor private sector developers over the local government. In a context of rapidly increasing land values, increasing demand for housing from an emergent middle class, and particularly the privatization of planning, this unevenness systematically favors the private sector.     

Catch-up inflation and nominal convergence: The balancing act for new EU entrants

The paper addresses some of the macroeconomic implications of the simultaneous pursuit of the goals of nominal and real convergence in the presence of a fast and sustained catch-up process. It is argued that when pursued simultaneously, nominal and real convergence may give rise to conflicting policy targets for the new EU members and acceding countries. The reason is that a fast catch-up process within a rigid macroeconomic framework is very likely to be accompanied by catch-up inflation, which is an equilibrium feature of this process. The paper proposes a simple accounting framework which is used to simulate the likely range of the expected catch-up inflation in the new EU members and acceding countries and discusses some of the related policy implications.     

Former Soviet Union as the World champion in cheapness

The paper assesses the relationship between income and price levels in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) republics relative to remaining countries during the period 1991–2000. The basic idea of the paper is that the price levels of FSU republics were in the 1990s remarkably lower not only vis-à-vis the non-transitional economies with income levels similar to those of the FSU republics but also vis-à-vis non-FSU transitional countries. The author finds out the cross-country relationship between income and price levels among non-transitional economies and derives from this equation the income-predicted price levels for the FSU republics both at the very beginning, in the middle and at the end of the 1990s. Based on his calculations, the author assesses the differences between the FSU republics’ income-predicted and actual price levels and compares the results with those of the non-FSU transitional countries.     

Note on ‘Loss of monetary discretion in a simple dynamic policy game’

Jensen (1994a) finds that loss of monetary discretion leads to lower welfare. However, by extending his model we show that if real base money holdings are relatively low, as is likely to be the case for modern economics, a zero-inflation rule may well be preferable to monetary discretion. If the emphasis on achieving the output and public spending targets falls, a zero-inflation rule is more likely to be preferred. The increased support for binding policy rules thus conforms with a less tolerant attitude towards inflation.     

政策对房地产价格影响分析

政策作为影响地价的重要因素对地价起着全面性、覆盖性的影响作用。近年来土地价格变化较大，增长较为迅猛，部分长三角、珠三角和京津地区的增长速度较快，为此国家出台了各项政策以调控房地产市场。通过建立1997-2006年上海市房地产价格指数的回归模型，将房地产政策量化后作为影响房地产价格的指标进行回归分析，验证了政策对房地产价格的实际影响力。