我国寿险公司规模效率与内含价值的实证分析

本文运用数据包络分析方法(DEA)研究各寿险公司的规模效率,使用截取回归模型(Tobit)分析影响效率的因素.研究发现,我国寿险业在快速发展的同时,没有明显表现出规模经济性;影响保险公司规模效率的主要因素是经营费用和保费收入,经营费用的负向影响作用大于保费收入的正向作用.寿险公司在扩大规模的同时,更应该注重提高效率和内含价值.     

人民币对美元实际汇率与中美贸易净出口关系的实证研究

中美双方的统计结果均表明,中美双边的贸易顺差是巨大的。按照中方提供的数据,格兰杰因果检验结果是人民币对美元实际汇率的变化对中美贸易净出口的变化没有统计上的影响;而按照美方提供的数据,人民币对美元实际汇率的变化对中美贸易净出口的变化有统计上的影响。然而,由于美方的数据夸大了中美之间实际上的净出口,因此美国的结论是不成立的。要解决中美之间的贸易冲突,在人民币汇率上做文章是行不通的,只有找出引起中美贸易净出口扩大的真正原因,才能有效解决中美巨额贸易顺差的问题。     

中国服务业增长的地区与部门特征

本文对中国服务业增长的地区与部门特征进行了实证分析,探讨了其中的影响因素.改革开放以来,中国服务业的发展速度是很快的,但与其他经济体相比,中国目前服务业存在着明显的"三低"现象,即服务业的增加值比重偏低、就业比重偏低和人均增加值偏低.中国服务业的发展具有鲜明的地区与部门非均衡特征.在影响目前中国服务业增长的诸因素中,人均GDP水平、城市化水平是最为重要的促进变量.因此,应继续推进城市化和市场化发展战略,缩小各地区服务业发展的差距和服务业各部门发展的差距,推动服务业全面均衡发展;促进服务业内部结构的调整与优化,注重服务业的集约化发展,使服务业的增长真正建立在劳动生产率的提高和技术进步的基础之上,增强服务业的产业整合力、经济牵引力和国际竞争力.     

Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we’ve really made

We examine the real-time forecasting performance of standard exchange rate models, using dozens of different vintages of data. Favorable evidence of long-horizon exchange rate predictability for the DM and Yen found in Mark (American Economic Review 1995;85:201-218) is present in only a two-year window of data vintages around that originally used. Approximately one-third of the improved forecasting performance over a random walk is eventually undone by data revisions. We also find the models consistently perform better using original release data than fully-revised data, and sometimes forecast better using real-time forecasts of future fundamentals instead of actual future fundamentals, contradicting a cherished presumption dating back to Meese and Rogoff (Journal of International Economics 1983;14:3-24).     

An Analysis of Price Discrimination in Brand Name Drug Wholesaling

Accounting measures of profitability are viewed by the academic literature with skepticism, perhaps even disdain. Accounting information and accounting rates of return are, however, relied upon extensively by market participants to compare and contrast the economic performance of alternative investments, alternative companies and alternative industries, at a single point in time and over time. We believe that accounting information and accounting measures of profitability can be useful under specific conditions. We agree that important concerns do arise about the appropriateness of accounting measures for certain analyses. However, one can take these concerns too far. We describe one such situation – one involving an antitrust complaint of price discrimination in a particular network industry – wholesaling in pharmaceutical product markets.     

外商直接投资地区集聚效应的实证研究

外商直接投资集聚的产生是一个动态的过程,它借助于产业集聚和国别集聚最终表现为区域集聚。本文以江苏省引进外资的数据对FDI地区集聚的特征、效应和形成机理展开深入的实证研究,结论表明集聚效应对外资的区位选择有着重要的影响,外商直接投资不同产业和国别的集聚效应有着很大的差异。     

现代服务业与制造业竞争力关系研究--以浙江先进制造业基地建设为例

随着制造业结构形式的不断变革,服务作为中间投入要素已越来越多地融入制造业;制造业企业活动的外置又带动了服务业的发展,服务业与制造业进入了一个高度相关、双向互动的阶段.本文以浙江为例,论述了先进制造业基地的建设必须与相关服务支撑产业协同发展,形成整体合力,从而保持竞争优势.     

Firm size, business experience and export intensity in SMEs: A longitudinal approach to complex relationships

The objective of the paper is to test the effect of firm size and business experience on export performance. In fact, despite a growing number of empirical studies, the question of the relationship between these variables is not clearly established. This research aims at contributing to a better understanding of these complex relationships with a special focus on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The authors develop a general model and test it using a sample of Italian manufacturing firms that spans the 1997–2001 period. Combining a time-series with a cross-sectional analysis, they use an econometric model in order to test the relationships. Their findings provide a strong support for both relationships. The results show that it is not business experience per se which is important but that it is the relative change in experience that truly impacts upon export performance. The model also reveals that industry effects are relevant.     

重新审视我国粗放型劳动密集产业

我国是劳动力资源大国,在国际经济贸易关系中,发展劳动密集型产业符合我国的比较优势。劳动力成本的比较优势应当是劳动力资源的成本和劳动力资源的效率的综合体现。而我国劳动密集型产业所表现出来的情况是,伴随着时间的推移,劳动力资源的成本呈上升趋势,劳动力资源的效率则呈下降趋势。因此,必须从战略的高度,重新审视我国粗放型劳动密集产业的比较优势与竞争优势的问题。     

企业能力、产业竞争力、比较优势与政府作用--也论中国激光视盘播放机工业的发展启示

关于比较优势和政府作用的片面理解,将对产业竞争力的塑造和国家政策的制定形成危险的错误导向.针对比较优势理论在解释产业竞争力的源泉上依然具有的巨大效力和科学性,中国政府应谨慎防范用产业政策和技术政策去人为创造竞争优势的"竞争优势陷阱".正是通过中国激光视盘播放机工业发展经验的分析证明,技术相对落后国家的企业要在开放市场条件下获得竞争优势,特别需要充分利用自己现阶段存在于自然资源和劳动力方面的比较优势.中国DVD工业目前被征收专利费的处境,更清楚地说明,即使是新科等领头企业目前也还不能定义自己的核心竞争力为技术能力和产品创新,而要进一步通过比较优势打造竞争优势.创造一个自由、开放和充分竞争的环境,让遵循客观规律的企业获得强大的自生能力,是各国政府的首要作用.