An Empirical Investigation of Firm Longevity: A Model of the Ex Ante Predictors of Financial Distress

Empirical models of a potential failure process that incorporate distress states between the extremes of corporate health and bankruptcy are uncommon. We depict financial distress as a series of financial events that reflect varied stages of corporate adversity. Our intent is to provide information regarding the influence of certain risk dimensions and firm-specific attributes on distressed firm survival over time. Within a theorized distress framework, we utilize the techniques of survival analysis to longitudinally track firms, grouped a priori according to an initial decline in operating cash flows. We find that the event of default has a significant positive association with business failure. Further, we document that the significant accounting covariates tend to change conditional on a firm having progressed through the diverse stages of distress. These findings accentuate the heterogeneous nature of financial distress and potential business failure.     

Easy cleanups or forbearing improvements: The effect of CEO tenure on successor’s performance

Long CEO tenure can harm firm performance even after the CEO is replaced. We analyze this issue by conditioning post-turnover firm performance on the length of the preceding CEO’s tenure. Identification comes from instrumenting sudden CEO deaths as an exogenous shock to tenure length. We find that when a successor takes over after a long-tenured CEO, operating performance and stock returns are significantly lower, restructuring costs are higher, “big baths” are larger, and firm recovery is slower. Weaker corporate governance and a long-tenured CEO with lower skills amplify these post-turnover effects.     

论公允价值计量与国有银行改制上市

本文主要分析了目前我国四大国有商业银行改制上市与金融稳定的关系以及会计披露在金融危机中的角色。本文认为,国有银行改制上市过程中,采用国际会计准则,尤其是公允价值计量,将会带来损益的剧烈波动。在中国特殊的银行信用机制下,银行系统会将很小的经济波动或者银行支付危机放大,最终可能酿成金融动荡。因此,在国有银行改制上市过程中,要充分研究公允价值计量的影响,慎重做出相关决策,将负面影响减少到最低限度。     

中国的金融发展、所有制结构调整与经济增长

本文利用中国分省面板数据证明:银行虽然将大部分资金贷给了国有企业,但是通过所有制结构调整,主要包括合法的国有企业改制,和不合法的国有资产流失等形式的资金漏损,使得银行信贷资产从国有企业手中转移到民营企业手中,提高了信贷资金的使用效率和资本边际生产率,促进了经济增长."拨改贷"使得银行贷款成为国有企业的主要外部资金来源,银行贷款的偿还压力推动了国有企业的改制,而政府出于保护银行信贷资产安全的需要也会催促国有企业加快改制.本文的结论为财政、外汇资金补充银行资本金和国有银行体制改革提供了理论和经验支持,为转轨国家的经济改革次序提供了启示.     

人力资本、技术创新与制造业结构调整——以宁波为例

技术创新是制造业结构调整的关键,人力资本则是技术创新的主体与重要源泉。为此,本文构建了促进制造业结构调整的人力资本与技术创新协调发展机制,并以宁波为例分析了宁波制造业的人力资本与技术创新发展状况,发现宁波制造业商务人力资本与技术创新之间还没有形成协调发展的良性互动机制,因此今后宁波制造业应加大高层次创新型人才的引进与培养力度、加强高级技能型人才的引进与开发力度加大研发经费投入、加快技术进步与创新,以加快制造业结构调整并实现优化升级。     

The value relevance of corporate restructuring charges

We document in this study that investors react positively to restructuring that is expected to be successful in improving firm performance. Investors’ reaction is significantly negative to unsuccessful firms when the magnitude of restructuring charges is high. Our results also show that investors’ reaction is significantly positive to restructuring that is intended to save costs through “workforce reduction” and “facility closings/consolidations”, but it is insignificant when restructuring is undertaken to recognize decline in asset values by asset write-offs and/or write-downs. Investor reaction is measured by 12-month buy-and-hold abnormal returns, whereas successful restructuring to improve the firm performance is based on the change in operating performance, measured by the industry-adjusted return on equity (ROE), over two subsequent years after restructuring.

我国上市公司财务困境与公司业绩之关系分析

文章通过对上市公司陷入财务困境后采取的重组措施以及重组前后公司业绩的定量分析,初步回答了我国上市公司财务困境与公司业绩的关系问题。     

中国国有企业民营化绩效研究

本文研究中国国有企业民营化是否有效的问题。我们通过对国企民营化进程的考察来对此问题作出经验解答。根据世界银行一份对中国五个城市、覆盖六个行业的近300家国有企业(SOEs)1996—2001年间的调查数据,我们发现:(1)绩效较好的国有企业优先被民营化;(2)总体上来说,中国的民营化是富有成效的,尤其是提高了销售收入,降低了企业的成本,并最终导致企业盈利能力和生产率的大幅提高;而且在获得这些收益的同时并没有带来大规模的失业问题;(3)由民营机构控股、彻底民营化的企业比那些仍然是国有控股、部分民营化的企业绩效表现更好。     

Internal and contextual drivers of dairy restructuring: evidence from French mountainous areas and post‐quota prospects

The end of the milk quota system in Europe has resulted in substantial structural changes to the dairy industry, calling its future into question, especially in mountainous areas. This study analyzes the internal and contextual factors that influence dairy restructuring in French mountainous areas. Three complementary logit models are used to specify farmer decisions (e.g., dairy production exit, stability, and growth). Original and exhaustive geo‐located administrative datasets are combined to create a farm longitudinal dataset and characterize farm‐restructuring patterns on a fine geographical scale. Farm size, corporate legal status, and specialization are positively associated with farm growth. Viable diversification strategies through either farm processing or agro‐environmental scheme contracting are also highlighted. Farm sustainability is supported by the economic success of the local industry and the propensity to adopt extensive practices. With respect to public policy, dairy policy appears to have the strongest impact. Thus, the liberalization of dairy policy threatens the future of dairy farming, particularly in areas with low milk density and no production under labels. This work calls for a policy that promotes the collective dimension of dairy farm performance. The current rural development policy alone may be insufficient to support farms’ long‐term sustainability.     

地方理论:城市空间发展的再生理论

地方理论(Sense of Place)在城市与景观空间规划与发展领域中,代表着对环境研究的一种新角度和新方法,代表着当代城市与景观规划与设计研究的新视野。地方理论强调人与环境之间的感知、认知和记忆关联,是一种空间的再生产策略和方法。本文以地方理论为本体,探讨地方理论的本质内涵、构成体系及解构城市空间再生的方法论维度,如地方实践模式、地方再现模式、再现地方模式以及地方理论在城市规划与设计中的区位活化观、设计活化观、遗产活化观、形态活化观、产业活化观等再生设计策略,从而丰富和完善地方理论体系及城市规划与景观规划设计理论体系。