Municipal bankruptcies and crime

While the importance of municipal bonds for the provision of public services is well-documented, the consequences of municipal bankruptcies remain understudied. We contribute to this literature by studying the effects of municipal bankruptcies on crime. Using the staggered difference-in-differences approach and agency-level crime data, we find that violent and property crime rates rise after successful (approved by the bankruptcy courts) Chapter 9 bankruptcy filings. The association between successful municipal bankruptcy and crime remains robust to alternative estimation methods, including a novel empirical technique that allows for the treatment effect heterogeneity and dynamics, and several robustness checks and falsification exercises. Our exploratory evidence suggests that the rise in crime rates is due to lower public safety expenditures. Our findings highlight the importance of efficient financial management for local government entities and the need for particular attention to law and order in the local jurisdiction going through bankruptcy.     

期待可能性论对预防刑罚观之实践问题的消解

期待可能性论与预防主义刑罚观是两个不同范畴、不同功能的刑法理论，二者出现了结合的态势。积极预防刑罚观导致刑法过度化问题，“立法要扩张，司法要谦抑”，需要运用责任论加以限制。责任理论也朝着机能化方向发展。期待可能性是现代责任论的核心。机能责任论作为一种升级版的规范责任论，在其理论框架中，期待可能性概念的地位虽然受到了一定限制，但并没有被完全否定，而是作为决定行为人对法律态度的一个根据被提出来。期待可能性依然具有刑法合理评价的价值，积极的一般预防主义本身也不排斥期待可能性，相反，应借助期待可能性论纠正一般预防观在实践中扩大打击面的弊端。我国立法规定为运用期待可能性论宽恕犯罪人提供了必要的空间，但现行教科书将期待不可能性作为无罪过事件并不科学。只有在刑事责任范畴中确定期待可能性论，才可以有效维持期待可能性论的两种评价功能。对网信犯罪的处理，可以进一步验证该理论的合理性。     

世界经济霸权周期:一个一国模型

本文以Modelski的霸权周期论为重要假设,构造了一个动态优化模型揭示世界经济霸权国家在霸权周期内的行为特征:通过稳定的对外掠夺量来最大化净收益。从该模型可以引出两个假说:如果技术和制度对经济增长的贡献不变,霸权国家在霸权周期初期的经济增长率高于前一时期;在霸权结束后一段时间内的经济增长率低于前一时期。荷兰、英国和美国的历史经验总体上支持两个假说。     

Do Surveillance Cameras Affect Unruly Behavior? A Close Look at Grandstands

How do surveillance cameras affect unruly spectator behavior? I examine this question using a natural experiment from the Swedish soccer league. Stadiums in Sweden introduced surveillance cameras at different points in time during the years 2000 and 2001. I exploit the exogenous variation that occurred because of differences across stadiums in the processing time taken to obtain permits for cameras as well as delays in the supply of equipment. Conditioning on stadium fixed effects, unruly behavior was found to be approximately 65 percent lower in stadiums with cameras compared to stadiums without cameras. The identification strategy provides a unique possibility to address problems regarding endogeneity, simultaneous policy interventions, and displacement effects.     

惩罚对犯罪的威慑效应：基于中国数据的实证研究

通过构建破案率、逮捕率、起诉率和重刑率四个指标来衡量惩罚的确定性和严厉性,借此研究惩罚对犯罪的威慑效应。实证结果发现,无论是惩罚的确定性还是严厉性均对总犯罪率、财产犯罪和暴力犯罪产生了显著的威慑作用。其中破案率的威慑力最强。而无论惩罚的确定性还是严厉性对暴力犯罪的威慑作用均小于财产犯罪。这些结论对治理犯罪及刑事政策的完善都颇具启示意义。     

Search for a theory of organized crimes

Casual empirical observations reveal no systematic relationship between the overall crime rate and organized criminal activity. We develop a search-theoretic framework to study the interactions not only between formal labor and crime sectors but also between individual and organized crimes. In equilibrium, individual and organized criminals face different arrest risks, success rates, reward structures and outside options. We characterize agents' “occupational choices,” the gang's hierarchical structure and the responses of unemployment, crime rates and crime composition to changes in labor-market conditions and crime-deterrence policies. We further assess the effectiveness of arrest versus punishment policies in deterring individual and organized crimes.     

The enemy you can’t see: An investigation of the disruption of dark networks

We examine the optimal disruption of dark (covert and illegal) networks. Of central importance is that an interventionist will generally have incomplete information about the dark network's architecture. We derive the optimal disruption strategy in a stylized model of dark network intervention with incomplete information and show how it combines features of two types of disruption considered in the literature: random failure and targeted attacks. In particular, the optimal disruption strategy encourages greater risk as less of the architecture is observed. A laboratory experiment finds that subjects tasked with disrupting a dark network qualitatively mimic the theoretical predictions.     

金融职务犯罪问题的实证分析——以昆明市为例

在对昆明地区金融机构及金融监管机构深入调查的基础上,以2000~2005年昆明市检察机关立案办理的金融职务犯罪案件为研究对象,把金融职务犯罪置放于中国金融改革开放的大背景下考量,分析了金融职务犯罪案件的社会特征、案件特征和发案原因,并提出了对策建议。     

超越比例原则： 同态报应量刑原则的法理根基与实践意义

德国公法中的比例原则并不是刑罚的内在道德原则,而是外在于罪刑均衡的补充性政治原则。在预防性刑法时代,单凭比例原则无法对预防刑的扩张风险形成有效约束,而带有形而上学色彩的“点”或“幅”量刑限制理论都不具有现实可操作性。回归同态报应原则是捍卫古典罪刑均衡理念、防止重刑化趋势的可操作方案,实质是从“量”的思维转向“质”的思维。以同态报应作为量刑原则,不需要预设不合理的刑罚证成理论,也不必然导致不人道或无法操作的刑罚方式。同态报应的本质是罪犯角色的转换,将罪犯从试图脱离法秩序的优势地位转为受到法律强制力约束的弱势地位,从而否定罪犯的不法宣称,恢复法秩序的公信力。根据同态报应原则,社区矫正可以被视作一种具有普遍意义的典型刑罚,而不仅仅是对监禁刑的边缘补充。     

Social disruption theory and crime in rural communities: Comparisons across three levels of tourism growth

The study compares rural tourism places under different growth levels in terms of crime effects. Adopting social disruption theory, the study hypothesized that average crime rates would differ for tourism counties with different growth levels, and that high growth tourism counties would experience the greatest increase in average crime rates. The study used data from a sample of rural Colorado tourism communities. Results partially supported the hypothesis and confirmed some results of the relationships between rapid growth and crime identified in previous boomtown studies. The results of the study provide useful insights to public leaders and policy makers engaged in processes of evaluating alternative tourism growth strategies for their community.