日本加入中日韩东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应实证分析——以1980～2007年为例

本文以日本加入中日韩东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应为研究对象,通过对相关国家的经济指标时间序列(1980～2007年)进行了回归分析,得出了既定研究条件下的日本经济贸易的相关影响要素的相关系数,进行经济动向分析,得出了日本结盟后的相关贸易效应的相关分析结论,为促进东亚合作打下基础。     

绿色贸易壁垒对我国出口贸易的影响与对策

绿色贸易壁垒是通过环境标准和法规等对自由贸易形成障碍的一种非关税措施。近年来,绿色贸易壁垒已经成为国际贸易领域中对自由贸易妨碍程度最深的一种贸易壁垒,它已经对中国产品出口造成了极为不利的影响。本文旨在研究我国产品出口屡遭发达国家绿色贸易壁垒阻碍的原因以及在WTO框架下我国应该采取什么措施来规避绿色贸易壁垒,解决因此而引发的贸易争端,进而合理地利用绿色贸易壁垒来保护环境和人类与动植物的健康,并促进我国出口贸易的发展。     

流通业的奥运机遇与对策

我国举办2008年奥运会,是发展首都经济强有力的助推器,同时将对北京流通业产生极大影响,以流通业为研究对象,在阐述北京流通产业的现状、问题分析基础上,深入探讨了流通业的发展机遇并提出应对措施。     

我国纺织品遭遇特保的影响与策略

文章分析了与我国纺织品有关特保措施的特征,深入揭示了纺织品遭受特保的负面影响,并着重从纺织业自身角度探究了针对纺织品特保措施的应对策略。     

中日韩的FTA进程及其政策比较分析

中国、日本和韩国的FTA已经起步并正在争先恐后、竞争性地加快其速度。其中,日本和韩国迅速地调整和明确了FTA战略,设立专门机构,扩充人员编制,制定相关法规使FTA走向制度化,并加强有关FTA的系统研究,进行可行性论证,为决策提供科学依据。尽管中国作为发展中国家推行投资贸易自由化对国内产业将造成较大的冲击,但还是在积极推进。在这一过程中,中国还缺乏FTA总体战略规划,缺乏FTA经济、社会效果的评价体系和受损产业的补偿办法等的系统研究,更缺乏相关的制度保障等,这些问题亟待解决。     

A Systematic Decomposition of World Trade into Horizontal and Vertical IIT

We provide a systematic decomposition of world trade using harmonized bilateral flows at the most available detail (some 5,000 product categories), into three trade types: inter-industry, intra-industry in horizontally and in vertically differentiated products. The analysis is diachronic and considers country pairs such as France-Germany, United States-China, Malaysia-Singapore, or India-Nigeria. We show that the increase in IIT at the world level is due to two-way trade of vertically differentiated products. We find France and Germany having the highest share of IIT in their bilateral trade among all country pairs in the world. In value terms, the most important bilateral IIT is between the United States and Canada. Recently, specialization according to the classical theories of international trade (inter-industry trade), has recovered, due to the increasing participation of emerging economies in world trade. JEL no. F14, F15     

Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade

World trade evolves at two margins. Where a bilateral trading relationship already exists it may increase through time (intensive margin). But trade may also increase if a trading bilateral relationship is newly established between countries that have not traded with each other in the past (extensive margin). We provide an empirical dissection of post–World War II growth in manufacturing world trade along these two margins. We propose a “corner-solutions version” of the gravity model to explain movements on both margins. A Tobit estimation of this model resolves the so-called “distance puzzle”. It also finds more convincing evidence than recent literature that WTO-membership enhances trade. JEL no. F12, F15     

International Trade, OECD Membership, and Religion

Transaction costs in trade gravity equation are proxied by the distance that separates two trading partners, under the assumption that the distance elasticity is the same across all trading partners. We show that distance elasticity, however, critically depends on whether trading partners are industrial countries (i.e., members of the OECD) or share same religion. These heterogeneities are both statistically and economically significant. For instance, expected trade flows are the largest when an OECD member trades with a non-member and both are non-religious. Expected trade flows fall as much as by 62.9% between two non-religious, non-OECD members. Expected bilateral trade drops by 48.1% when both countries in the pair are OECD members while one is Christian and the other is Islamic. Both religion and OECD membership significantly affect the typical transaction costs implied by the gravity equation. JEL Classification Number: F13     

Migration Flows and Intra-Industry Trade Adjustments

In this paper we analyse the link between trade and migration. Focusing on the experience of Spain, we relate a marginal index of intra-industry trade to the stock of foreign workers—classified according to their country of origin and their situation in the Spanish labour market. We focus on the possibility that existing networks of foreign workers and their connections with their countries of origin could stimulate trade with the host country. Our results show a significant impact of the number of immigrants with work permits on intra-industry trade adjustment. However, this impact being positive or negative depends on whether foreign workers are employees or self-employed, the duration of the work permits and the type of job they occupy. JEL no. F10, F14, F15, F22     

Does Gravity Matter in a Service Economy?

This paper estimates gravity equations for bilateral services trade in a sample of 28 countries. It finds that the standard gravity variables of economic size and geographic proximity are significant factors in services trade. It also reveals positive effects of linguistic ties on services trade. There is evidence of a positive link between regional trade arrangements and services trade. Much of that effect appears to reflect the impact of bilateral goods trade on services trade. This implies that efforts to enhance goods trade—bilateral or multilateral—should lead to more services trade as well. JEL no. F13, F15, L80