基于短期观测资料的冰厚极值统计

基于概率设计原理，对三种由短期冰厚观测资料推求极值分布的方法进行了探讨，分析了这三种方法的适用范围。根据ＪＺ２０－２ＭＵＱ平台上测得的１９９７－１９９９年度日冰厚资料，采用上述三种方法推求年极值冰厚的概率分布，并推算了不同重现期的极值冰厚，可为渤海海上结构物设计提供参考。     

Investing in natural capital as management strategy in fisheries: The case of the Baltic Sea cod fishery

Many of today's fish stocks are officially managed following the precautionary approach. Yet, different political objectives and uncertainties among fishermen about their economic future make its implementation difficult. Over 75% of all commercially valuable stocks are exploited, overused, or collapsed and in a state of recovery [FAO, 2004. The state of the world fisheries and aquaculture. FAO, Rome. Managing fish stocks with an ecosystem-based approach is likely to stop the divestment of natural capital by combining sustainable use strategies with the preservation of marine ecosystems. Using the example of the Baltic Sea cod fishery, we show that a recovery program is economically and ecologically viable and reduces negative externalities. While policy makers must assist fishermen during the early years of the program, fishermen will experience greater landings and profits in subsequent years.     

苏南地区发展绿色物流的路径与对策研究

本文在论述苏南地区物流企业发展现状的基础上,针对绿色物流发展中货物包装、货物运输、货物储存三个方面产生的环境污染问题进行分析,提出通过采取易燃液体膨胀余位分段设置、实施物流包装模数标准化及选择可重复使用、回收利用其规格为1219×1016mm的塑料托盘替代木制托盘为最佳、创建物流企业生态效益评价体系等策略,借鉴国外发展绿色物流的经验,绘制出苏南地区实现绿色物流的路径图,探讨了解决上述三大问题的途径和对策,以期对苏南地区绿色物流的发展提供理论支撑与实践指导,更好地促进苏南地区物流业与国际接轨。     

Introduction

SUMMARY

Since the beginning of the transition from centrally planned to market economy, the FDI outflows of the Russian Federation have consistently exceeded the inflows. In the 1990s, most of the outflows were of an informal nature, and unregistered in the balance of payments, or misregistered under other items. Since 2003, their recording has improved. However, the question remains: how can a lower-middle income country become a net capital exporter? It is supposed to be the combined result of economic and political factors such as the economic and business environment, still deemed to be difficult. The fact that the ‘oligarchy’ created under the presidency of Boris Yeltsin (1991-1999) continues to control large parts of the privatized natural resources of the country also stimulated capital exporting behavior. With the political changes currently taking place, only a limited increase in the influence of the State is expected to happen. Moreover, the strategic interest of Russian firms to control their vertical value chains through outward FDI is expected to remain in the longer term.     

湘南地区特色农业发展及其区域布局初探

湘南的农业自然生态环境、资源以及区位、交通、市场、原有农业基础等均具有发展特色农业的优势。但也存在着特色农业规模小、产品科技含量不高、品牌优势不突出等问题，今后必须以市场需求为导向，以区域比较优势为依托，以提高效益为中心，优化政策，加大投入，加强农产品精深加工，并调整好特色农业的布局和强化特色农产品基地建设。     

苏南农民工社会保障的实证研究

苏南农民工社会保障虽略好于江苏全省情况,但仍存在不少问题。苏南民工就业劳动合同签订率低,大部分农民工未参加任何社会保险,参加医疗、养老、工伤、失业、生育和综合保险的人数比例低。苏南农民工主要就业于私营、个体和股份制企业,就业于集体、国有企业的也有一定的比例。农民工平均工作时间长,而月收入仅相当于本地居民平均收入的60-80%。其原因,除了劳动力过剩、城乡两元体系和关系网络外,主要是由于农民工受教育程度低,工会组织不健全等。     

"冰山理论"与《老人与海》

海明威认为好的作品应如冰山，有藏有露，有虚有实。通过对其代表作《老人与海》的时代背景、创作意图、艺术形态、艺术手法的分析，进一步阐释了这一重要的创作理念。     

中国南海发展滨海生态旅游的思考

南海，地处热带，亚热带，我国管辖的面积达200万km^2，跨广东、广西、海南三省区沿海，具有漫长曲折的海岸线，众多的港湾和岛屿，滨海旅游资源十分丰富，本文探讨了滨海生态旅游的特点，意义，分析了我国环南海的粤、桂、琼三省区发展滨海生态旅游存在的主要问题并提提出了相应的对策。     

我国主要沿海港口的动态效率评价

本文利用数据包络分析法(DEA)对我国50家主要沿海港口1999—2002年的经营效率进行总体分析与评价,并利用Malmquist生产率指数对这些沿海港口的效率变动进行分析与评价。研究结果表明,我国沿海港口存在严重的投入拥挤与资源浪费现象;同时,各区域的沿海港口在总体效率、纯技术效率与规模效率方面存在地区差异,沿海港口的纯技术效率在下降。这些结果表明,要从根本上提高港口经营效率,一方面,必须整合港口资源,防止盲目扩大港口的基础设施;另一方面,通过港口与其他系统协调发展来消除影响港口效率提高的因素。     

环南海国家邮轮产业利益相关者均衡机制——基于协同博弈模型的探讨

环南海国家一直在积极推动邮轮产业合作,它们互为域内主要邮轮旅游目的地和客源国。与此同时,作为新兴产业,邮轮产业协同发展及区域合作还存在一定的短板。基于协同博弈的观点对环南海国家邮轮产业协同发展和环南海国家邮轮产业利益相关者均衡机制的构建进行探讨,以期为推动环南海国家邮轮产业、海洋旅游、区域经济的发展建言献策。