Probabilistic forecasting of heterogeneous consumer transaction–sales time series

We present new Bayesian methodology for consumer sales forecasting. Focusing on the multi-step-ahead forecasting of daily sales of many supermarket items, we adapt dynamic count mixture models for forecasting individual customer transactions, and introduce novel dynamic binary cascade models for predicting counts of items per transaction. These transaction–sales models can incorporate time-varying trends, seasonality, price, promotion, random effects and other outlet-specific predictors for individual items. Sequential Bayesian analysis involves fast, parallel filtering on sets of decoupled items, and is adaptable across items that may exhibit widely-varying characteristics. A multi-scale approach enables information to be shared across items with related patterns over time in order to improve prediction, while maintaining the scalability to many items. A motivating case study in many-item, multi-period, multi-step-ahead supermarket sales forecasting provides examples that demonstrate an improved forecast accuracy on multiple metrics, and illustrates the benefits of full probabilistic models for forecast accuracy evaluation and comparison.     

Do supermarkets’ emails have any value for their customers? The effect of emails’ content and interestingness on customers’ attitude and engagement

Supermarkets use relational emails mainly to foster sales and support promotional campaigns, while brands and more exclusive retailers use more non-transactional contents in order to foster a positive attitude towards their brands, but also a better customer mood. Using the Stimulus-Organism-Response framework we study the role of relational email content and interestingness of emails emanating from supermarkets on consumer’s perceived value and on their attitude and engagement towards the supermarket, but also on their mood. Building a dedicated relational email perceived value scale and comparing three types of content, this article highlights the importance of emotional value even in a utilitarian context (supermarket). A few recommendations are offered to help supermarkets to provide value-added content to their customers in order to foster preference and loyalty in a highly competitive market where discounters are gaining shares.     

Doing Business in Global Markets:

A frequently overlooked component of succesful international trade involves the efficient distribution of products. The present paper looked at international freight forwarder perceptions of the easiest and most difficult countries for arranging international freight operations. The forwarders overwhelmingly indicated that Great Britain was the easiest country for arranging international freight operations, which China emerged as the most difficult. Study results could be helpful both as competitive benchmarks and in formulating public policy.     

农村居民选择超市或集市购买的决定因素与比较——来自全国28个县(市)1308名农村居民的调查

农村居民选择超市或集市购买的决定因素对"农改超"和"农超对接"具有重要意义。本文对全国28个县(市)的1308位农村居民进行随机调查,研究结果表明,农村居民既选择农村集市又选择超市购买产品,但农村居民选择两者购买的意愿及其影响因素、感知程度等存在显著差异。农村居民选择集市或超市购买的共同决定因素包括产品质量可靠性和购买便利性;不同的决定因素体现为,农村居民选择在集市购买主要取决于购买文化与习惯,而选择在超市购买则取决于超市销售服务水平,这种决定因素的差异导致农村超市与传统集市互补共存。     

The sound of silence: Why music in supermarkets is just a distraction

Retailers use music in the service environment to try to change consumer behaviour with a view to increasing spend, or improving consumer mood. Previous research has largely focused on music but ignored the effects of other noises within a servicescape: yet all noises can impact consumers' affective states, and their behaviour.This study examines the role of both planned and other sounds within the supermarket environment. In particular, this study investigates the cognizant and emotional reactions of supermarket customers, and explores their shopping intentions in the context of shoppers' understanding of and reaction to the sounds they perceive.     

我国“新零售”实践回顾与展望——基于上半场“需求端”与下半场“供给端”转型期视角

新零售是以消费者体验为中心的数据驱动的泛零售形态,它表面上体现为零售渠道的变革,本质上将冲击供给端,对供应链产生重构影响。经过两年多的发展,新零售对需求端的赋能改造已取得成效,对供给端乃至全链条的变革影响将成为基本趋势。回顾我国新零售的实践历程,从国家和区域视角来看,一方面国家政策法规的不断出台为其发展提供了多方面条件,产生直接或间接推动作用;另一方面阿里巴巴推行的新零售之城战略和上海、北京等典型城市的示范作用又为其发展提供了舞台,使新零售在诸多区域获得较大程度的发展。从产业和企业视角来看,一方面新零售起源于实体零售和网络零售的自身缺陷,得益于消费升级和新技术发展驱动,总体上面临广阔的发展前景;另一方面核心企业依托全域战略积极探索和布局新零售,逐渐形成了阿里苏宁系和京腾辉系两个战略联盟,孵化出盒马型新物种等系列创新业态。展望新零售,供给端变革和全链化整合将主导其发展,行业内外整合趋势将进一步增强,业态丰富和融合趋势以及智慧零售特征也将进一步凸显。     

Conveying conscientiousness: Exploring environmental images across servicescapes

The study explores how conscientiousness gets conveyed across servicescapes in two specific retail contexts: a supermarket and an organic food store, both of which claim an environmentally oriented branding strategy. Data collected from a qualitative approach and a photo elicitation technique consist of 20 semi-structured interviews with consumers of organic food products. The present study contributes to extant retailing literature by demonstrating that a conscientious corporate brand image requires long-term, comprehensive dedication by retailers. Moreover, this study contributes to research into retailer branding by uncovering a nostalgic dimension of conscientious branding, which in this setting means acknowledging the effects of the past.     

The Development and Regulation of Network Financial Supermarket in China

网络金融超市属于金融创新的一种表现形式,体现了以人为本的经营过程,强调以客户为中心的服务理念。本文分析了网络金融超市的理念与模式,以及我国网络金融超市发展潜在问题与风险,在此基础之上,提出从技术手段、营销手段与管理手段三个层面发展网络金融超市业务,并从监管角度提出相关建议,目的在于规范网络金融超市业务,使其健康发展。     

外国超市投资中国市场的财务风险分析与管理

本文针对投资中国市场的外国超市在中国市场可能面临的主要财务风险结合中国的宏观经济环境进行了分析，着重分析了除所有投资都要面临的一般财务风险外，作为进入中国市场的外国超市，还将面临的由于不同的经济环境而产生的汇率风险、利率风险、价格制定风险和通货膨胀风险，并针对这四种风险提出了相应的解决措施。     

A mixed-methods study of retail food waste in New Zealand

Little is known about the amount of food wasted in the retail sector. This study aimed to quantify retail food waste in New Zealand (NZ) and identify key drivers for food waste reduction, using a mixed-methods, observational study design that consisted of three parts: onsite food waste audits undertaken in 16 selected stores (complete data from 11 stores); semi-structured interviews with key retail staff from each store; and obtaining existing data from retailers. Retail food waste in NZ was estimated at 13 kg/capita/year for all food waste and diverted product (i.e. all food not sold or utilised at a retail level), which included 5 kg/capita/year designated as food waste (i.e. food directed to landfill, protein reprocessing and compost), with 3 kg/capita/year of this sent to landfill. Fresh vegetables (27%), bakery (23%), meat and fish (19%) and fresh fruit (17%) contributed the most to discarded product. The motivators for encouraging food waste reduction were: concern for the environment; making profit; caring for the community; and doing the ‘right’ thing. The barriers to food waste reduction were: training and educating staff; food safety concerns; quality standards; availability and capacity of waste diversion avenues; and lack of available resources. Audit data and food waste data recorded by retailers were similar. NZ has a number of policies and practices that successfully divert retail food waste away from landfill, in particular, retailers have established relationships with various groups that use their waste as a resource including protein reprocessors, local farmers, and food rescue charities.