基于Tobit回归的融资决策影响因素分析

运用中国上市公司1990～2009年的有关数据,采用Tobit回归模型分析了中国A股上市公司融资决策的影响因素。结果表明融资决策(资产负债率)与实际所得税率正相关;公司规模与资产负债率正相关,而资产担保价值、获利能力和成长性与资产负债率负相关,这一结果与发达国家和其他新型国家的发现相一致。     

丝绸之路河西走廊物流业效率演化分析

构建了分析河西走廊物流业效率演化的指标体系,基于2009-2017年河西走廊物流业统计数据,运用DEA-Malmquist指数法测算了各市物流业效率和技术进步率,采用Tobit回归模型分析了该地区物流业效率的影响因素,并从省内、省域间、各经济区域间三个方面进行了对比分析。实证分析表明,相较于全国各省市地区,河西走廊物流业整体水平较低,物流业效率和技术进步率的强正相关性普遍存在,其物流业发展对政策偏向具有较强的依赖性;同时,技术进步率低下和基础设施匮乏也是制约物流业发展的重要因素。基于此,从政策照顾与资金投入、科技进步与管理水平和市场运营与体系建设三个方面,为河西走廊物流业发展提出了建议与改善措施。     

Should sequels differ from original movies in pre-launch advertising schedule? Lessons from consumers' online search activity

Sequels have become a profitable strategy in the U.S. motion picture industry because of their strong name recognition. However, while the established positioning of a sequel may help insulate it from competing firms' advertising messages, its familiarity may cause moviegoers to be more easily satiated with advertising from the sequel. Therefore, this study examines how sequels differ from original concept movies in terms of their ad effectiveness. We focus our analysis on pre-launch periods, given these periods' importance in shaping the financial outcomes of motion pictures. We consider the weekly online search volume of a movie as a measure of consumer interest in it, and thus as an intermediate response to pre-launch advertising. We then develop a model that assumes ad effectiveness can decline, due to copy and repetition wearout, and increase, due to forgetting, over time. We find that copy wearout is greater for original movies, while repetition wearout and forgetting are greater for sequels. These findings suggest that sequels should allocate more in early pre-launch periods and less immediately before release, relative to originals, to maximize pre-launch consumer interest.     

Exploring cruise ship passenger spending patterns in two Uruguayan ports of call

The cruise industry has become a significant component of the Uruguayan tourism economy in the last few years. The present study aims to provide a better understanding of the cruise industry by considering the expenditure of cruise ship passengers disembarking at the ports of call of Montevideo and Punta del Este as a key variable in the economic analysis of the costs and benefits. We estimate two cross-sectional regression models for cruise passenger expenditures, and show that the size of the group the visitors travel with and visitor mobility within the country are the most important variables to explain individual expenditure behaviour. We also include some management recommendations that policy-makers could implement in order to improve the economic profits from cruise ship tourism.     

How Do Household Tasks Shape Employment Contracts? The Provision of Care in Portugal

This study illustrates the complexities involved in outsourcing domestic work to the market. It draws on an original dataset of paid domestic workers in Portugal to examine how specific tasks interact with and explain contractual arrangements. A fuzzy cluster analysis categorizes paid domestic workers into caregivers and cleaners; however, a great degree of overlap implies that caring also entails cleaning tasks necessary for the care receiver’s well-being. A subsequent Tobit regression analysis shows that caregivers have more formal and stable contracts but earn lower wages and have longer working hours relative to cleaners. The study finds a segmentation of national origin and that some migrants are at a disadvantage in care work. The study also examines how employers deal with the idiosyncrasies of domestic work such as navigating trust-related issues.     

Tobit or OLS? An empirical evaluation under different diary window lengths

Researchers analysing time-use data often estimate limited dependent variable models because time spent must be nonnegative and cannot be more than the total amount of time in a given observation period. While the traditional empirical technique applied to such cases is maximum likelihood estimation of a Tobit (censored regression) model, recent debate has questioned whether linear models estimated via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) are preferable. On the one hand, Tobit models are deemed necessary to address the significant censoring (i.e. large numbers of zeroes) typically found in time-use data, in the face of which OLS estimators would be biased and inconsistent. Yet, optimization occurs over a longer period than that covered by the typical time diary (often a day), and thus some argue that reported zeroes represent a measurement problem rather than true nonparticipation in the activity, in which case OLS would be preferred. We provide direct empirical evidence on this question using the Australian Time Use Surveys, which record time-use information for two consecutive diary days, by estimating censored and linear versions of a parental child care model for both 24-hour and 48-hour windows of observation in order to determine the empirical consequences of estimation technique and diary length.