基于季节调整模型的我国铁路客运量波动分析

在研究TRAMO/SEATS季节调整模型计算方法的基础上,基于我国铁路2002年1月—2010年2月的客运量月度数据,应用Demetra软件,通过季节调整模型参数设置、模型的估计和检验,得到2010年3月—2012年2月的铁路客运量预测值,并对预测结果进行趋势性和季节性分析。研究结果表明,Tramo/Seats季节调整模型的预测精度较高。     

无证、醉酒驾车肇事保险公司交强险拒赔的法律分析——兼谈交强险条例第22条的理解与适用

社会上对于司机无证、醉酒驾车肇事,承保该肇事车的保险公司是否要在机动车强制保险责任限额范围内承担赔偿责任有不同的看法,但各家保险公司对此类保险事故一概拒赔却是不争的事实。各方对此现象有不同的看法,缘于大家对《交强险条例》第二十二条和《道交法》第七十六条有不同的理解,对它们之间的关系也有不同的解读。为此,笔者将运用法理、法意及逻辑原理对无证、醉酒驾车肇事保险公司交强险拒赔是否有法律依据进行分析,并为解决此问题提出立法完善建议。     

ETC系统关键技术研究

射频识别(RFID)技术在电子不停车收费(ETC)系统中的应用,实现了不停车自动交费、免现金、免找兑、与银行联网结算争货币电子化,解决了因停车交费而产生的交通堵塞和空气污染等问题.文中介绍了电子不停车收费系统的设计目标与设计原则,给出了电子不停车收费系统的主要功能,最后对电子不停车收费(ETC)系统所涉及的关键技术进行了详细分析.     

铁路运输调度高质量发展深化研究

铁路运输调度系统积极面对新冠疫情、极端天气以及市场波动对铁路造成的影响,发挥全国铁路运输集中统一指挥优势,推动调度安全有序稳定,促进运输效率高位提升,实现货运装车连创新高。在分析安全基础管理、路网能力配置、运力资源配置、运输总体增量、集中统一指挥等经营成效基础上,从充分释放路网运输潜力、稳定货运装车总量、提升天窗组织质量、深化运输提质增效、强化运输生产一体协同、强化调度信息化保障支撑等方面解析铁路运输调度发展经验,提出铁路运输调度高质量发展提升路径,即:全面深化基础管理,全面强化路网运力保障,全面贯通三级调度指挥,全面加强施工维修管理,全面推进调度信息化建设,全面提升十八点统计工作质量,全面强化队伍综合素质。     

Liberalisation of Air Traffic Services in Spain

The aim of the European Commission's Single European Sky initiative is to promote a series of structural changes within Air Transport to help improve its efficiency, continuity and sustainability. One of the key elements of the air transport system is Air Traffic Services (ATSs), which must guarantee safe and fluid operations. The Single European Sky initiative puts in place a series of mechanisms to replace the existing public monopolies with free market models. Taking advantage of this new framework, Spain has initiated a process of liberalisation of ATS Services, which may provide a business opportunity for operators with an interest in the area of air transport, and European providers who wish to expand their markets. This document sets out the new legal framework that has been put in place in Spain to promote this process, indicating the motives of these actions and the main implications the process will have, whilst maintaining the objective of guaranteeing continuity of service, and avoiding any barriers to entry, which changes of this type can give rise to.     

Competitive multi-facility location games with non-identical firms and convex traffic congestion costs

This paper studies a set of heterogenous competitive firms simultaneously locating facilities at a set of locations to serve a set of markets. Firms incur firm-specific transportation, congestion, and location costs, and market price is linear and decreasing in the amount shipped to the market by all firms. First, firms’ market-supply decisions for given facility locations are characterized using a variational inequality formulation. Then, firms’ location decisions are analyzed. A heuristic method is provided for finding equilibrium locations, and its computational efficiency is compared to a random search method.     

Cost analysis of road traffic crashes in China

Abstract

Fatalities and injuries resulting from road traffic crashes is always a serious problem. The overall economic losses caused by road traffic crashes are beyond imagination. Including the economic cost of property damage, productivity loss, medical cost, travel delay time cost, legal cost and insurance cost, the total economic cost of traffic crashes in China in 2017 is calculated as 490.1 billion yuan (72.6 billion USD 2017), which is equivalent to 0.60% of the GDP. The cost of productivity loss accounts for the highest proportion of total economic cost, which is 72%. The second is the travel delay cost, accounting for 12% insurance cost, property damage cost and medical cost are followed. The more serious the injury, the higher the unit economic cost. The unit cost of a crash that caused only property damage is 11,274 yuan. The unit cost of a minor injured crash is 20,223 yuan. The highest unit economic cost is the unit cost of a fatal crash, which is 3,181,394 yuan. This study provides important insights into the cost-benefit analysis of China's road safety policies.     

Exploring clinical metrics to assess the health impact of traffic injuries

In order to allow a deep knowledge of the nonfatal injuries, recently the European Commission adopted the maximum abbreviated injury scale classification which is based on medical diagnosis. This classification will open the door to a new source of information based on international hospital data such as diagnosis-related group and international classification of diseases. In this study, we seek to explore these clinical metrics, which are used to describe the diagnosis and the medical treatment, and to infer consequences of crashes mainly through the costs and severity. Therefore, statistical analyses were applied using generalized linear models selected depending on the type of response variable, i.e. discrete or continuous. Relationships between these metrics were identified revealing for instance that head is the region of the body associated with high severity as well as to higher health care costs. Additionally, a discussion is presented regarding study results and future developments of clinical metrics are pointed out.     

山东省交通运输与经济发展的关系研究

如何处理好交通运输与经济发展之间的关系,使交通运输与经济能够协调、可持续发展是当今决策者和理论界共同关注的课题,尤其是在当下经济危机时期,加大交通运输等基础建设投资成为经济刺激方案的重要组成部分。本文主要运用相关分析、主成因子分析、回归分析等方法从定量的角度阐述山东省交通运输与经济发展的相关性,探讨交通运输各重要指标与经济的内在联系,并通过计算经济与重要的运输变量的弹性系数来讨论如何从发展交通运输业的角度进一步刺激经济增长。     

我国城市交通拥堵成因与治理对策

论文从我国城市交通发展现状、拥堵成因及危害等方面进行分析,认为迅速增长的交通需求与有限的交通供给之间的矛盾是导致交通拥堵的内在原因;城市空间布局不合理与交通管理水平较低是交通拥堵的重要原因.在借鉴国外先进经验的基础上,提出了治理我国城市交通拥堵的对策建议.