新兴产业的竞争战略

新兴产业是指正处于产业生命周期中成长期阶段的产业。现代科学技术的发展使新兴产业不断出现,发展新兴产业对于我国赶超发达国家有着重要意义。本文介绍了新兴产业的结构特征,并对限制新兴产业发展的问题进行了分析,提出了使新兴产业获得竞争优势的相关战略选择的建议。     

我国新能源产业风险资本介入研究

在分析我国新能源产业特征的基础上,从新能源各细分产业发展中存在的问题入手,探讨了我国新能源产业发展中的瓶颈。通过分析我国风险资本介入新能源产业的现状和问题,提出了促进我国新能源产业风险资本介入的对策。     

重庆市两江新区产业布局与劳动力聚合效应研究

比较分析了两江新区和滨海新区的功能区及产业布局,利用就业弹性系数模型对未来10年两江新区产业发展所需的劳动就业数量进行了预测。主要结论是:二、三产业的增长对劳动力就业产生了较强的聚合效应,第一产业产值的增加一定程度上对就业增长产生了"挤出"效应。未来10年,两江新区将聚合劳动力137～142万人。据此,提出了两江新区的产业布局思路,以及发展、促进就业的政策建议。     

税收政策与居民消费需求——基于结构效应视角的新思考

本文运用税收经济效应原理系统阐释所得税、商品税与财产税对居民消费需求的作用机制,在考察我国税制结构整体状况及其对居民消费需求负面影响的基础上,通过建立动态面板数据模型与采用GMM估计方法实证估计税收政策对居民消费需求的结构效应,结果发现：一方面,财产税挤入居民消费;另一方面,商品税和所得税均挤出居民消费需求,但开征利息税能够显著降低个人所得税对居民消费需求的抑制效应。基于理论分析与实证估计结果,本文认为,政府为了提高税收政策对居民消费需求调节的针对性与激励效果,应充分发挥税收政策的结构效应,积极推进与实行“有增有减”的新一轮税制改革,构建与扩大居民消费需求相协调的税制结构。     

新兴工业区人才聚集关键影响因素实证研究

将区域人才聚集关键影响因素归纳为组织—产业—区域三层次互动所形成的综合环境因素和人才服务—人才市场—人才制度三方构成的人才发展政策因素。对曹妃甸新兴工业区的实证研究表明,综合环境因素对现阶段该区域人才聚集影响显著,而人才发展政策因素的影响并不显著。     

新常态下内需拉动经济增长是否存在有效边界*

新常态下,中国如何维持经济中高速增长既是重点,也是难点。由于外需拉动型经济增长方式逐渐难以为继,扩大内需的重要性日益突出。然而,扩大内需真的是有效国策吗？投资和消费拉动经济增长,是否存在有效边界？基于此,本文通过构建面板门限模型,利用2012-2013年中国275个市级数据,对内需拉动经济增长是否存在有效边界问题进行了实证检验。研究结果显示：投资拉动经济增长确实存在有效边界,当投资率较低时,增加投资能够有效拉动经济增长,当投资率已经较高时,增加投资对经济增长的拉动作用将不再显著;消费拉动经济增长也存在有效边界,当投资效率较低时,增加消费会抑制经济增长,当投资效率足够高时,增加消费才能够有效拉动经济增长。\     

习近平新时代流通发展观的核心思想及其演化脉络

作为习近平新时代中国特色社会主义经济思想重要组成部分的流通发展观,是中国流通现代化的思想指南和行动纲领,对于实现党的十九大提出的伟大战略目标具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。文章总结习近平新时代经济思想流通发展观的核心思想四大方面的内容,考察分析该理论体系形成过程中所经历的三个不同阶段,进一步梳理其形成的历史脉络,以便深刻理解和把握这一科学理论体系,指导中国流通现代化的伟大实践。     

Export intensity of foreign subsidiaries of multinational enterprises: The role of trade finance availability

We examine the relationship between the role of trade finance availability and the export intensity of foreign subsidiaries of multinational enterprises (MNEs). In developing our hypotheses, we draw upon insights derived from “new” internalisation theory (international business literature) and international trade finance (international economics literature). We empirically test these hypotheses using survey data compiled from subsidiary managers in six ASEAN countries, supplemented with host-country level data. We conceptualise, empirically test, and establish that the subsidiary-level capability in combining and utilising internal and external debts is an important subsidiary-specific advantage to support export intensity. We find that subsidiaries employ intra-firm loans from MNE internal capital markets and, to some extent, bank loans from external financial institutions to boost their export intensity. Subsidiaries may have concerns about foreign exchange risks, but the use of appropriate foreign exchange risk management is positively associated with export intensity. We discuss the implications of our findings for theory and practice.     

On the impacts of carbon tax and technological progress on China

Using a dynamic national computable general equilibrium model, we investigate the impact of carbon tax and energy efficiency improvement on the economy and environment of China. The Chinese social account matrix is presented based upon the latest input–output table (2012 IO table) and other data. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is designed according to several forecasts about China by 2030, followed by six policy scenarios, including different levels of carbon tax and technological progress as well as their combinations. The results show that carbon tax will frustrate the overall economic growth slightly. The CO₂ emission will be 13.81% lower in 2030 compared to BAU case if the carbon tax scheme is carried out at a rate of 200 RMB/ton of CO₂. Technological progress will stimulate the economic growth, enrich the household and government income, increase total investment and make most sectors prosperous with the exception of energy industries.     

Empirical research on time-varying characteristics and efficiency of the Chinese economy and monetary policy: evidence from the MI-TVP-VAR model

Based on the general time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model and data mining technology, this study proposes a new extension mixed innovation time-varying parameter stochastic volatility vector autoregressive model and investigates time-varying characteristics and efficiencies of different shock effects on China’s monetary policy towards inflation and GDP. Using sample monthly data for 1979–2014, we utilize typical time points to illustrate the mechanisms between different economic variables via the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and impulse response function. The empirical results show that the monetary transmission mechanism in China can be effective in the real economy, but with delay and efficiency leakage. The average delay and maximum efficiency can be measured through the MI model, which can capture accurate information of economic variables, effectively improving the precision of macroeconomic regulation and control. Meanwhile, the difference between the impacts of different channels is obvious; while the impact of interest rates is not significant, the impact of stock market is significant. The action mechanism between GDP and the inflation rate undergoes a gradual structural change, evidently displaying time-varying characteristics and a gradually weakening impact over time.