Economic Risk Factors and Commercial Real Estate Returns

A great deal of research has focused on the links between stock and bond market returns and macroeconomic events such as fluctuations in interest rates, inflation rates, and industrial production. Although the comovements of real estate and other asset prices suggests that these same systematic risk factors are likely to be priced in real estate markets, no study has formally addressed this issue. This study identifies the growth rate in real per capita consumption, the real T-bill rate, the term structure of interest rates, and unexpected inflation as fundamental drivers or state variables that systematically affect real estate returns. The finding of a consistently significant risk premium on consumption has important ramifications for the vast literature that has examined the (risk-adjusted) performance of real estate, for it suggests that prior findings of significant abnormal returns (either positive or negative) that have ignored consumption are potentially biased by an omitted variables problem. The results also have important implications for dynamic asset allocation strategies that involve the predictability of real estate returns using economic data.     

金融全球化与金融风险

中国入世标志着中国经济已开始融入世界经济体系之中 ,而在经济全球化进程中伴随着金融全球化的大趋势 ,金融全球化对各国经济和金融体系既是机遇 ,也加大了风险 ,在金融全球化的环境下中国银行体系中存在的大量不良贷款和远不能满足巴塞尔协议要求的资本充足率 ,使中国银行业存在现实和隐含的金融风险。中国的商业银行和金融监管当局必须采取有力的对策来应对挑战     

美国财政创新与重建对我国财政政策选择的启示

本分析了克林顿政府的财政创新与重建路径和实践结果，从中得出对我国财政政策选择的启示。     

经济增长在险水平、条件波动性与经济增长态势研究

经济增长在险水平（GaR）和条件标准差（CSD）能够有效地度量国家经济风险波动的单向性和双向性。利用动态时窗和条件异方差模型，我们发现我国国家经济风险与经济周期波动密切相关，目前的国家风险状态已经体现出明显的稳定性。利用协整关系检验，我们发现我国国家经济风险与经济增长水平之间存在正相关的长期均衡关系，因此采取积极经济政策的“反周期”干预，所诱发的适度经济波动将有且经济快速稳定增长。     

油气勘探目标的经济评价

勘探目标经济评价要坚持常规经济评价和风险评价相结合，在用多种方法合理预测经济评价参数，充分考虑各种风险因素的基础上，认真做好风险评价研究，提高勘探目标经济评价的可靠性。     

Inequality, Crime and Economic Growth. A Classical Argument for Distributional Equality

This paper studies the dynamic general-equilibrium interactions between inequality, crime and economic growth by embedding the rational choice-theoretical approach to criminal behavior in a heterogeneous-agents endogenous-growth OLG model. Based on their respective opportunity costs, individuals choose to specialize in either legal or criminal activities. While legal households contribute to aggregate goods supply over time by either working or building human capital, criminals make a living by expropriating legal citizens of part of the latter's income. An increase in inequality lowers the economy's growth rate and possesses negative welfare effects for all agents with endowments equal to or above average and for agents with endowment below average that are born sufficiently far in the future.     

Capital mobility,wage bargaining,and social insurance policies in an economic union

In a two-country model with mobile capital we analyse decentralized social insurance policies. These policies are a compromise between the preferences of workers and capital owners. Due to wage bargaining, worker-based social insurance contributions are borne by capital owners. These contributions affect the profitability of investment, and consequently the direction and size of capital flows. Countries will take account of these effects in determining social insurance policy. Noncooperative decision making results in tax competition and an underprovision of social insurance. In addition, increasing economic integration, represented by increasing capital mobility, could imply a divergence of social insurance levels in the two countries.     

科学发展观和新自由主义发展观的论争

在我国的经济国理论界和社会公理论学界，如何科学发展，和谐发展，已经成为关注和讨论的热门话题。目前，中众争辩的问题，不是要不要改革，而是改革的方向之争，是坚持社会主义市场经济的改革方向，还是资本主义市场经济的改革方向，实质上是围绕科学发展观和新自由主义发展观之间的争论。科学发展观有三个含义即全面发展、协调发展和可持续发展，比较突出的有四个亮点。     

中国经济转型时期商业银行信贷退出问题研究

信贷退出要遵循两个基本原则:一是风险—收益对称原则,二是成本—收益均衡原则。退出成本最低、收益最大、能够较好地掌控风险的时期是信贷退出的最佳时机。判断何时为最佳退出时机必须准确把握行业经济周期、产业结构演进规律、企业生命周期、产品生命周期以及企业信用等级和财务等相关指标的变化。商业银行应该根据信贷进入的行业、区域、企业以及信贷产品制定相应的退出策略。信贷退出路径包括直接退出和间接退出,商业银行应首先考虑间接退出。商业银行信贷退出机制的构建主要包括转换观念,建立行业信贷分析预警退出机制、区域信贷退出机制、客户退出机制、信贷退出激励约束机制等内容。     

中国的经济增长、需求约束与税收结构

在我国目前的经济增长中,出现了投资需求过热而消费需求不足的结构性失衡状况。为此,可以把税收结构引入汉森-萨缪尔森模型,来研究税收结构对投资和消费的影响。通过实证研究发现,在税收结构中,流转税(间接税)比重的增加对投资增长有激励作用,而对边际消费倾向没有显著影响;所得税和其他税(代表了直接税)比重的增加,有利于抑制投资和过快的经济增长,相反,可以提高边际消费倾向,从而促进消费。