商业地产的定位流程与内容

文章认为商业地产的定位包括产品、主题形象、商业经营、目标市场等多方面的内容,需要结合当地市场特征、项目地块特征、商家及消费者的需求等,采用科学的流程与方法,才能具备较高的成功率。     

基于模块化理论的柔性流程及其影响因素的实证研究

模块化系统理论指出模块化设计能够提高系统的柔性。模块化程度高的业务流程具有“封装”和“即插即拔”的特性,使得业务流程更具有柔性,可快速的相应环境的变化。本文在模块化系统理论和交易成本经济学的基础上提出了模块化业务流程影响因素模型和相关假设,顾客需求的多样性、供应商专业化程度将促成流程的模块化设计,流程的实物资产专用性、人力资产专用性、程序资产专用性将减少流程模块化设计的吸引力。实证结果支持了这些研究假设。     

基于工程建设三类因素内部关系的工程目标评价研究

工程建设的目标可分为质量、进度及资源投入目标,从工程建设全生命周期来看,三大目标之间相互制约、相互影响,总体关系可归纳为统一性（替代关系）与制约性（平衡关系）。这两大关系的不同影响导致总体目标发生变化,初始目标与最终目标之间的演化博弈过程可以用马尔可夫转移矩阵来表示。文章将最终的演化稳定策略细分为6类。马尔可夫矩阵体现了工程建设中的中期控制的动态变化过程,对目前工程建设中广泛推广Turnkey模式缺乏中期控制是个有益的补充。     

Assessing supply chain risks with the analytic hierarchy process: Providing decision support for the offshoring decision by a US manufacturing company

This paper reports the process used by a US manufacturing company to assess supply chain risks within the context of an offshore sourcing decision. The case study company was faced with the objective of finding a new supplier for two of its major product lines. Five alternatives were considered: (1) sourcing finished goods from Mexico; (2) sourcing finished goods from China; (3) sourcing parts from China and assembly in the US; (4) sourcing parts from China, assembly in a Maquiladora in Mexico with investment; and (5) sourcing parts from China, assembly in a Maquiladora in Mexico with no investment in the venture. To find the best solution, action research methodology was combined with the application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Through iterative and structured discussions, 17 risk factors were identified, which were subsequently grouped into main and sub objectives. AHP was then used to evaluate the importance of each risk factor, and to determine the best alternative. This study makes several contributions to the field of purchasing and supply management. First, it provides a comprehensive framework of empirically derived risk factors to be considered in an international sourcing context. Second, it shows how AHP can be used to assess these risk factors and alternatives as part of the framework to facilitate and support the final offshoring decision. And third, it illustrates the successful application of the approach by a US manufacturing company. As such, this paper contributes to the research streams of offshoring and risk management in purchasing and supply, as well as to decision-making under uncertainty and AHP. In addition, it serves as a practical methodology for firms in similar situations.     

Semiparametric time series models driven by latent factor

We introduce a class of semiparametric time series models (SemiParTS) driven by a latent factor process. The proposed SemiParTS class is flexible because, given the latent process, only the conditional mean and variance of the time series are specified. These are the primary features of SemiParTS: (i) no parametric form is assumed for the conditional distribution of the time series given the latent process; (ii) it is suitable for a wide range of data: non-negative, count, bounded, binary, and real-valued time series; (iii) it does not constrain the dispersion parameter to be known. The quasi-likelihood inference is employed in order to estimate the parameters in the mean function. Here, we derive explicit expressions for the marginal moments and for the autocorrelation function of the time series process so that a method of moments can be employed to estimate the dispersion parameter and also the parameters related to the latent process. Simulated results that aim to check the proposed estimation procedure are presented. Forecasting procedures are proposed and evaluated in simulated and real data. Analyses of the number of admissions in a hospital due to asthma and a total insolation time series illustrate the potential for practical situations that involve the proposed models.     

浅析工业设备支撑体系方案优化的思路

设备承重支撑体系是一种特殊的结构形式,在我国工业项目中的应用范围越来越广,设备支撑结构体系类似于民建钢框架结构、钢框架-支撑结构体系。重型设备的支撑点主要集中在结构体系的局部楼层,导致上下楼层质量、刚度比例偏差较大,设备布置偏心,不满足抗震设防要求[1]。随着传统工业的工艺技术不断革新、新型工艺技术的发展、重型设备的出现,优化钢结构承重支撑体系势在必行。在满足承载能力和使用要求的前提下,可打破常规规则与相对不规则结构形式间的界限。依据结构专业设计条件[2]、操作楼层和承重楼层分别设计的优化思路,对降低钢材用量、节约项目成本具有现实意义。鉴于此,论文主要对现阶段工业承重体系的优缺点进行分析,提出其承重钢结构体系优化的构想和措施。     

基于AHP-FCE模型的复杂产品系统项目风险评估研究

针对复杂产品系统(CoPS)的特点,在对CoPS项目风险识别的基础上,利用层次分析(AHP)法建立了CoPS项目风险的评价指标体系,确定了风险因素的权重;并引入模糊综合评价(FCE)的基本思想和方法,构建了CoPS项目风险的模糊综合评价模型。并且结合案例介绍了该模型的应用过程。     

医院门诊业务流程病人满意度研究

提供了一套构建医院门诊业务流程病人满意度指标体系的方法。首先对一所二级甲等医院门诊病人进行了两次问卷调查;在数据分析的基础上,提取指标并确定权重。最后,构建了一套评价医院门诊业务流程病人满意度的指标体系。     

Measuring financial risk and portfolio reversion with time changed tempered stable Lévy processes

Given that underlying assets in financial markets exhibit stylized facts such as leptokurtosis, asymmetry, clustering properties and heteroskedasticity effect, this paper applies the stochastic volatility models driven by tempered stable Lévy processes to construct time changed tempered stable Lévy processes (TSSV) for financial risk measurement and portfolio reversion. The TSSV model framework permits infinite activity jump behaviors of returns dynamics and time varying volatility consistently observed in financial markets by introducing time changing volatility into tempered stable processes which specially refer to normal tempered stable (NTS) distribution as well as classical tempered stable (CTS) distribution, capturing leptokurtosis, fat tailedness and asymmetry features of returns in addition to volatility clustering effect in stochastic volatility. Through employing the analytical characteristic function and fast Fourier transform (FFT) technique, the closed form formulas for probability density function (PDF) of returns, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) can be derived. Finally, in order to forecast extreme events and volatile market, we perform empirical researches on Hangseng index to measure risks and construct portfolio based on risk adjusted reward risk stock selection criteria employing TSSV models, with the stochastic volatility normal tempered stable (NTSSV) model producing superior performances relative to others.     

基于BPR的汽车总装系统实例研究

论文对汽车企业现存总装业务流程和装配工艺进行分析,并采用Worktlow-BPR软件进行建模.以效率,成本和质量为导向进行深入改造,对总装车间业务流程进行再造方案的设计.通过Workflow-BPR软件可以清楚地比较出再造前和再造后在装配时间和成本上的明显变化.对于提高企业的顾客满意度,推进企业管理进步,增强企业竞争力有着深远的意义.