Military expenditure in post-conflict societies

Post-conflict situations face a high risk of reversion to conflict. We investigate the effect of military expenditure by the government during the first decade post-conflict on the risk of reversion. We contrast two theories as to the likely effects. In one, military spending deters conflict by reducing the prospects of rebel success. In the other it acts as a signal to the rebels of government intentions. In the signalling model, low military spending signals that the government intends to adhere to the terms of the peace settlement and so reduces the risk of renewed rebellion. We investigate the effects of post-conflict military spending on the risk of conflict, using our existing models of military expenditure and of conflict risk. We find that, consistent with the signalling model, high military spending post-conflict significantly increases the risk of renewed conflict. This effect of military spending is distinctive to post-conflict period, and becomes progressively more pronounced over the decade. Received: April 2004, Accepted: December 2004, JEL Classification: H56, F35, O10     

‘World war three’: A historical mirage?

Public belief in a major, convulsive military clash between East and West, marked by an apocalyptic nuclear exchange, is now widespread. It may be argued that such a conflict is scarcely in prospect, and that the notion of such a Third World War has little contemporary strategic value, either as a real prospect or a salutary myth. This article examines the strong contemporary reasons for the prominence of this image, and traces its fundamental roots in deceptive historical precedent.     

战争报道中的两面信息

战争报道须应对矛盾性信息：有关敌方及其行动或意图的一些好消息,对己方及其行动和意图的一些批评.具有战争宣传特点的战争报道也不能忽略这一信息,而是使用两面信息以抵御之.战争宣传融合矛盾性信息可以加强对读者的效果：表明敌方最终是＂坏的＂,己方是＂好的＂,报道看起来更像平衡的报道,感觉不到宣传的意味.     

淮南抗日根据地的互助合作运动研究

为了打破敌伪的经济封锁,减轻地主对农民的剥削,克服小农经济的局限性,淮南抗日根据地开展了互助合作运动。根据地在组织农户参加互助时,总结经验、树立典型,循序渐进,逐步推广,抓住群众需要,解决群众困难,尊重群众意愿,利用适当形式,从而有效组织了互助合作。互助合作运动开展中,也遇到不少问题,如形式主义、强迫命令;违背公平合理原则;经营管理效率不高;农民的观望、落后分子的破坏等。根据地采取了一系列措施,应对这些问题。如在.经济条件相近、关系和睦的农户间开展互助,对落后分子进行说服教育,建章立制,惩戒营私舞弊者;发扬民主、确保公平等。互助合作运动的开展,提高了生产效率,克服了小农经济的弊端,加强了基础设施建设;创造了物质财富,改善了民众生活。淮南抗日根据地互助合作运动对当今的农民专业合作社仍有一定的参考借鉴意义。     

Mercantilism: a materialist approach

ABSTRACT

Historians and economists have shown renewed interest in mercantilism over the last couple of years. From this interest, a dispute has arisen about whether mercantilism should be seen as an incoherent economic thought or if it is possible to ‘reconstruct’ its basic principles. In line with this latter attempt, this paper is intended to provide a materialist explanation for varying degrees of belief in shared mercantilist assumptions. My hypothesis is that belief in mercantilist assumptions is significantly dependent upon how economic and security issues materially interact in a given time and space, with uncertainty and insecurity profoundly favouring mercantilist dispositions in economic thought. To analyse this hypothesis, the paper sets the first steps for relating the credibility of mercantilism with changes in British economic and military history from the sixteenth to the nineteenth century. Section 3 presents ideas to further investigate this hypothesis. Section 4 concludes the paper.     

How beer created Belgium (and the Netherlands): the contribution of beer taxes to war finance during the Dutch Revolt

ABSTRACT

The present-day border between Belgium and the Netherlands can be traced back to the separation of the Low Countries after the Dutch Revolt (1566–1648) against Spanish rule. The capacity to finance the escalating cost of war determined the outcome of this conflict. As Spain struggled to provide regular pay to its troops, its war efforts were often plagued by mutiny. In contrast, the Dutch Republic managed to raise large sums for its war budgets. As we show in this article, excise taxes on beer consumption were one of the largest income sources in Holland, the leading province of the Dutch Republic. Over the course of the Revolt, Dutch beer taxes brought in the equivalent of 29% of Spanish tax revenues on silver from America. Beer taxes thus played a crucial role in financing the Dutch Revolt which led to the separation of the Low Countries and, eventually, the creation of Belgium.     

价格战的替代策略及其组合分析

在不完全竞争市场中,一些产品发展到了一定时期,总是避免不了要经受价格战的洗礼。面对行业内一家企业的主动降价,其余的企业似乎除了被动跟随之外别无选择。但笔者认为,企业可以采用其它有效策略,绕开价格战泥潭,化被动为主动,建立非低价竞争优势。     

抗战时期法币贬值对根据地社会经济的影响

法币贬值是20世纪40年代中国经济史上的重大事件,其影响不仅限于物价上扬和人们生活水平的降低,由此带来的连锁反应对当时社会财富的分配、阶级结构的调整等所产生的作用在一定意义上甚至比根据地货币政策更为直接彻底。因此,在考察根据地社会形态变迁的过程中,应把法币贬值这一重大经济事件纳入其中。同时,法币贬值使边币大量发行,根据地经济进入了独立自主、自力更生的新阶段。     

U.S.-China trade war and competitive advantage of Vietnam

China has been losing international competitiveness in labor-intensive industries due to various factors, including the trade war with the United States and globalization. Vietnam, however, has rapidly expanded its labor-intensive exports. The paper proposes to explore the future of labor-intensive industries in Vietnam due to the U.S.-China trade war. The paper examines export performance data from United Nation Comtrade for 10 specific labor-intensive industries that serve the U.S. market between 2000 and 2020 to assess the possibility of Vietnam overtaking China's position as the world's largest manufacturer. Using situation analysis, the paper compares the competitive advantage of Vietnam in labor-intensive industries due to the U.S.-China trade war. The paper found that China's competitiveness was negatively impacted for the final two periods, while Vietnam's competitive advantage increased.