Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model

The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting of a stochastic method and CGE model. The former, related to the Monte Carlo analysis, provides the likely changes in rainfall patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the scenarios simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the greater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change and variability, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach.     

YAWL语言及其系统的初步研究

工作流和工作流管理系统的合理应用可大大提高办公自动化的程度,而现有的工作流系统在支持工作流基本模式上存在一定的缺陷。一种新出现的YAWL语言较好地支持了工作流现有的基本模式,文章就YAWL语言及其系统的执行方法进行了初步的研究。     

The ideology of class and tourism confronting the discourse of advertising

Starting from Baudrillard's analysis of the ideological character inherent in all consumption, touristic consumption, for many reasons ,has a special place in this social semantic. Here, advertising plays an important if not essential role because tourism is a product consumed outside of normal time and daily social space. Therefore the social semantic asserts itselfless through the product itself than through its representation: the discourse of advertising. But advertising discourse is plural, each form having its own ideology, competing with others. Behind the commercial competition lies a competition of social classes, but with a new typology, no longer based on the capital/favor relationship. Four ideological models are analyzed and illustrated with their advertising messages: the traditional model, the clerical/executive model, the youth model, and the “intellectual class” model.     

河北省低碳消费模式面临的困难分析

当前,河北省构建低碳消费模式面临的困难主要是高碳能源占比过高在短期内难以改变,政府对低碳消费模式的支撑体系不健全,低碳核心技术和产品研发能力低,居民消费观念和消费习惯转变滞后等。河北省低碳经济的发展还处于起步阶段,低碳消费模式作为低碳经济的重要组成部分,其发展应当引起有关部门的高度重视,并采取切实可行的措施努力解决低碳消费模式构建过程中遇到的各项困难,从而加快河北省经济发展方式的转变,提高人民群众的生活质量。     

少数民族纹样在“多彩贵州”文化品牌营销中的运用

"多彩贵州"作为贵州省的一张"名片",已成为一个著名的文化品牌。为丰富该品牌内涵,保持其市场价值,通过运用市场营销中的企业形象理论,对"多彩贵州"文化品牌在视觉识别层面上的价值进行研究。结果表明,贵州少数民族纹样具有较强的视觉识别性及艺术性,可以有效提升"多彩贵州"文化品牌的识别度,保护该省原生态文化资源,并开发出具有更高价值的贵州本土旅游产品,以实现产品更大的市场价值。     

地震灾区典型农村居民点空间变化与农户生计特征

文章以都江堰市典型乡镇的3个行政村为研究对象,在农户问卷调查、历史资料分析的基础上,利用GIS技术、景观分析、数理统计等多种手段,研究了3个行政村居民点灾前2007年和灾后2010年的格局变化与农户生计特征。结果表明:①地震灾区典型农村居民点的空间格局在灾前灾后受多重因素的影响发生了较大的变化;②典型农村居民点总体上处于在规划引导下从分散向聚集的转变过程中;③居民点的空间变化对农户生计的选择造成了一定的影响。     

林业县域经济发展模式研究——基于十大产业发展典型县(市)的实地调研

林业县域经济是国家林业发展的基本单元,是区域绿色经济发展的重要力量,是促进农民致富和改善社会福利的关键。通过在林业十大产业发展兼具优势与特色的典型县(市)开展实地调研,归纳总结了林业县域经济发展的典型模式,包括以专业基地为主的产业化发展模式、以人才为中心的科技文化引领发展模式、以招商引资为主的民营中小企业集群发展模式、以保育开发自然资源为主的生态经济发展模式、以生态治理为目标的循环经济发展模式。     

农村土地流转的必然性及流转方式初探

文章认为,家庭承包责任制的缺陷、农村产业结构的变化要求农村土地流转。土地流转是农民增收的客观保障,是市场经济条件下土地管理的客观要求。目前国内在促进农地流转的实践中出现了转包、互换、转让、租赁、反租倒包、联合经营、土地股份合作和拍卖等数种类型。土地流转方式各有特点,受各种因素的影响和限制,在实践中不可强求一致。只要符合有关法律、法规规定,深受农民的欢迎和好评,都要积极加以推广和倡导,在实施过程中予以规范和完善。     

商业银行学习模式与竞争力培育互动关系研究

银行的学习能力对其保持长久的生命力至关重要,而构建与竞争力培育实践相结合的学习模式更是我国银行的现实选择和客观要求.本文首先从理论上分析了银行学习与竞争力培育的互动关系,并从国外银行的实践角度进行了实证分析,认为基于竞争力构建学习模式是银行发展的必然选择;然后,对我国银行基于竞争力构建学习模式的意义进行了阐述,指出其具有较好的应用前景;最后,提出了基于竞争力的三个层面学习模式.本文认为,基于我国银行现有的学习能力,应该采取相关的辅助性策略,以各种支持性措施逐步提高学习能力,从而缩短学习与竞争力培育的距离,渐次推进学习模式的演化.     

Predicting multi-faceted activity-travel adjustment strategies in response to possible congestion pricing scenarios using an Internet-based stated adaptation experiment

This paper reports the estimation of several discrete choice models describing reactions of individuals to congestion pricing scenarios. The models were estimated on data obtained in a stated adaptation experiment that was administered through the Internet and designed to examine how individuals adjust their activity-travel patterns. An activity-based approach is used meaning that all choice facets of activity patterns are taken into account as well as a complete set of activities. Estimates of price elasticities of travel demand are in line with other findings reported in the literature. Results of the stated adaptation experiment suggest that changing route or departure time is the most important way of adapting work trips, whereas public transport and working at home play a more limited role. For non-work activities changing route and switching to bike are the dominant responses.