投资项目中的实物期权及其相互作用

本文首先对投资项目中的实物期权行了分析；在此基础上，从定性和定量的角度研究了实物期权之间的相互作用，并分析了多个实物期权的可加性。     

基于自动补货技术开发的便利店门店库存管理模型

本文针对当前我国便利店门店存在库存管理不合理的问题．运用了经典预测技术和数据分析知识，引用了SPSS数据分析软件的P—P概率图．结合当前最新发展的库存管理思想。为门店开发了支持自动补货系统的上下限库存管理模型．从而完善了门店的库存管理系统。     

基于可靠度理论的现役框架结构的维修设计

现役建筑结构经过一段时间的使用，其抗力和荷载效应都与设计时的不同。本文根据实际情况，采用串联分析模型，计算结构体系的失效概率。并通过对结构体系的失效概率直接进行调整，实现对现役结构可靠度的维修设计。以此对结构的安全性进行评估，为框架结构的维修决策提供了依据。     

OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE AND FIRM EXIT ROUTES

ABSTRACT

Our study presents empirical evidence about the role of ownership structure for firm exit probability by explicitly differentiating between distinct exit routes (bankruptcy and forced liquidation, voluntary liquidation, mergers and acquisitions – M&A, and removal from the court register). Based on the population of Slovenian firms in the 2006–2012 period and using multinomial probit, our findings support the predictions of agency theory. Ownership concentration, share of the largest owner, and the difference in shares between two largest owners all decrease the likelihood of exit for all studied exit routes but M&A. The magnitude of their impact is largest for exits, in which owners play a decisive role, i.e. voluntary liquidation and removal. The link between the number of primary owners and exit likelihood is U-shaped with the lowest exit probability for firms with around two owners.     

CPV模型研究产业集群的经济周期性风险

本文在深入分析Creditportfolio View（CPV）模型的原理基础上，利用了现代信用风险KMV模型计算出我国产业集群的违约概率．然后利用CPV模型进行一系列的运算以校验违约概率，最后分析我国产业集群违约概率值的特点。     

从古桥的无奈看国有企业的市场退出

目前,国有企业在退出市场过程中要面对经济、体制、感情等多方面的障碍。为此,国有企业退出市场时,在防止国有资产流失的前提下,要实施管理创新,变被动退出为主动退出;政府要加强宏观控制,降低企业退出成本,为劣势企业顺利退出市场创造宽松的环境和条件,形成企业有进有退的市场机制。     

The Impact of Basel II on Lending to Small- and Medium-Sized Firms: A Regulatory Policy Assessment Based on Spanish Credit Register Data

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact on bank credit exposures to small- and medium-sized Spanish firms of the current proposal for reform of the 1988 Capital Accord using information from the Spanish Credit Register. Capital requirements for exposures to those firms, according to the various revisions of the proposed capital reform (from the January 2001 consultative document to the April 2003 one), are calculated to analyze whether the existing pattern of bank financing of small- and medium-sized firms might be altered. Finally, the incentives for individual banks to adopt the advanced internal ratings-based approach proposed by Basel II are evaluated.     

主债务人破产后保证人停止计息的法理与实践

我国《企业破产法》第四十六条第二款规定:"附利息的债权自破产申请受理时起停止计息。"但是该条规定是否及于保证人在实务中存在不同的裁判路径。对不同判决的分析,法院比较偏向于保证从债权的范围不应超过主债权,所以停止计息也应当及于保证人。本文从突破保证责任从属性的角度分析,论证破产止息不及于保证人的合理性,并对现在的破产止息制度进行思考。     

马尔可夫链在经济预测上的应用

本文将马尔可夫链引入到经济学中 ,通过建立产品的状态转移概率矩阵 ,利用马尔可夫链进行分析和计算 ,给出产品的市场预测、利润预测及风险决策的数学模型 ,从而给经济预测提供切实可靠的理论依据。