化学专业概率统计和数据处理课程教学研究

概率统计与数据处理课程教学的关键是在教学内容的每一个相关环节设置"问点",这样可以有效激发学生的学习兴趣,提高学习效果。     

中国商业银行跨业兼营财险和基金之模拟分析

通过使用模拟合并的方法分析中国商业银行跨业兼营财险和基金的潜在风险和收益,研究结果表明商业银行跨业兼营财险和基金能增加银行的收益,并提高单位风险的报酬,同时能显著降低商业银行的破产概率;研究结果同时显示,合适的财险和基金业务资产比重对于达到最佳的跨业兼营效果是必不可少的.此外,对比研究发现商业银行同时跨业兼营财险和基金比商业银行单一跨业兼营财险或者基金能获得更大的风险分散收益,因此支持银行同时跨业兼营财险和基金.     

Chapter 11 and Asbestos: Encouraging Private Enterprise or Conspiring to Avoid Liability?

This paper explores the American bankruptcy system -- especially the Chapter 11 code -- which since 1978 has allowed insolvent companies the opportunity to restructure and reorganise with the benefit of court protection from creditors. Particular attention is focused on asbestos companies, such as Johns--Manville, which have been among the most consistent and controversial filers for bankruptcy under Chapter 11. The history of asbestos and Chapter 11 is explored, against the backdrop of the burgeoning asbestos crisis, caused by increasing mortality and litigation. Some of the business and ethical issues involved are highlighted by examining in detail a recent bankruptcy (Federal Mogul/T&N in 2001) that has implications in both Britain and America. Chapter 11 bankruptcy is evaluated, particularly in the light of the trend towards similar mechanisms of insolvency in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world. It is concluded that, certainly as regards the experience with asbestos, Chapter 11 offers an inefficient and inequitable method of rehabilitating or rescuing failing businesses.     

De Vetula: a Medieval Manuscript Containing Probability Calculations

De Vetula , a poem that contains probability calculations on the throw of three dice, was written in the mid-thirteenth century. The poem was widely circulated, read and quoted. There is strong evidence that some of the medieval readers clearly understood how the probability calculations were obtained. Based on the discussion given here, it is put forward that an elementary probability calculus was established and known in Europe from about the year 1250. A translation of the relevant section of the poem is given.     

黄土边坡稳定性分析的概率方法

黄土边坡稳定性分析是一个不确定性问题,包含很多不确定性因素,而且土的抗剪强度可变性很大。在进行了大量实验的前提下,估计抗剪强度的可变性,运用概率的方法进行边坡的稳定性分析,计算黄土边坡的失稳概率。     

基于信息不对称非上市公司贷款违约研究

针对非上市企业融资困难的现状,从信息不对称角度出发,采用贷款抵押,利用修正的自由现金流模型估计非上市企业的价值,并结合企业的债务结构,建立了信息不对称下非上市企业信用风险模型,建立了企业的违约概率的预测模型,探讨了企业最大债务规模,并分析了贷款违约挽回率。     

Default and Recovery Risk Dependencies in a Simple Credit Risk Model

This paper provides evidence for the relationship between credit quality, recovery rate, and correlation. The paper finds that rating grade, rating shift, and macroeconomic factors provide a highly significant explanation for default risk and recovery risk of US bond issues. The empirical data suggest that default and recovery processes are highly correlated. Therefore, a joint approach is required for estimating time‐varying default probabilities and recovery rates that are conditional on default. This paper develops and applies such a model.     

An Empirical Investigation of the Effects of Rounding on the SPF Probabilities of Decline and Output Growth Histograms

I consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future, as well as their reported output growth probability distributions. I make various plausible assumptions about respondents’ rounding practices, and show how these impinge upon the apparent mismatch between probability forecasts of a decline in output and the probabilities of this event implied by the annual output growth histograms. I find that rounding accounts for about a quarter of the inconsistent pairs of forecasts.     

论重整企业信用修复的特征、机制与方式

重整企业信用修复日益受到重视,并且司法实践已经开启个案探索,亟待推进重整企业信用修复的制度建设.重整企业信用修复制度应当以企业拯救为目的,以准予修复为原则、不予修复为例外,以主动、高效为根本要求.重整企业信用修复应当构建以"府院协调"为基础,信用服务机构、银行等多元主体参与的机制,并且对信用修复方式进行革新,为重整企业...