我国个人破产制度的建立

个人破产是指有民事行为能力的自然人不能清偿到期债务时,按照破产程序,在保留他和他所供养人的生活必需费用和必要生活用品情况下,将其财产拍卖,按一定比例分配给债权人的一项法律制度。它是市场经济长足发展的必然产物。但我国目前个人破产制度的缺失,使得现行破产法与经济发展不相适应,因此,随着市场经济的不断成熟,建立个人破产制度的要求在我国已相当迫切。     

Bank-led restructuring in Poland: the conciliation process in action1

Poland's 1993 Enterprise and Bank Restructuring Programme (EBRP) tried to force state-owned commercial banks to build institutional capacity and resolve their problem loans. The outcome of its innovative bank-led workout (‘conciliation’) process, documented in this study of 62 firms, is decidedly mixed. The EBRP forced banks to confront their problems, helped them to build instituional capacity in their workout units, and furthered the difficult task of weeding out and closing clearly unviable firms. Yet it had limited power to promote needed restructuring or privatization in firms. The conciliation agreements were relatively unsophisticated and include few tangible requirements for operational or management change. The first two years of implementation saw a slowdown (over earlier years) in the rate of layoffs, a decline in average operating profitablility, and very little real privatization. The main impact of conciliation appears to have been to reduce debt service and thereby give firms ‘breathing room’.     

Ethical Issues in Credit Card Solicitation of College Students – The Responsibilities of Credit Card Issuers,Higher Education,and Students

Credit card companies aggressively solicit college students, without regardfor the consequences of high credit car debt for these customers. Theethical conflict of the sale of easy credit to college students too oftenresults in hazardous outcomes akin to the solicitation of youth by cigarettecompanies. This paper will investigate the dangers that credit card use presents to theyoung customer, the unethical manner in which the companies that issue these cards promote their products to this audience, and the role of institutions of higher education. A majority of students are not only using credit unwisely (average balances of over $1000 regardless of who reports the data) but are payingexorbitant interest (18%–22%). The credit card companies call this``responsible' use. They are collecting enough interest and fees to morethan cover losses resulting from bankruptcy. They use a variety ofmarketing techniques to lure college students – glitzy `MTV' type shows,free prizes and gifts, special interest rate offers, and now they can pretendthrough `educational services' to explain to college students why credit cards are important.This paper investigates the ethical considerations of credit card solicitationof college students as a result of research into factors that influence thenumber of credit cards held by these students. Current solicitation policiesof colleges and universities are also presented.     

Parental Income and Continuing Education of Second Generation Immigrants in Sweden

Understanding the economic integration of minority ethnic communities requires an analysis of the educational process. This paper examines second‐generation immigrant youths’ educational attainments in comparison with those of similarly aged native Swedes. Binomial‐logit, grouped‐regression and multinomial‐logit models are applied to longitudinal data, 1991–1996. The results give evidence for socioeconomic determinants of post‐compulsory education and for parental influence on educational choices. Parental income affects second‐generation immigrants’ post‐compulsory education and Swedes’ choice of level of education. In general, the stronger the labour market positions of the parents, the higher the probability of the children continuing education. It is also found that the geographical origin of second‐generation immigrants matter, with youths of Asian origin having a higher probability of continuing their education. We suggest policy changes on different levels based on the evidence of the paper, as short‐run, long‐run and in general.     

PRICING EQUITY DERIVATIVES SUBJECT TO BANKRUPTCY

We solve in closed form a parsimonious extension of the Black–Scholes–Merton model with bankruptcy where the hazard rate of bankruptcy is a negative power of the stock price. Combining a scale change and a measure change, the model dynamics is reduced to a linear stochastic differential equation whose solution is a diffusion process that plays a central role in the pricing of Asian options. The solution is in the form of a spectral expansion associated with the diffusion infinitesimal generator. The latter is closely related to the Schrödinger operator with Morse potential. Pricing formulas for both corporate bonds and stock options are obtained in closed form. Term credit spreads on corporate bonds and implied volatility skews of stock options are closely linked in this model, with parameters of the hazard rate specification controlling both the shape of the term structure of credit spreads and the slope of the implied volatility skew. Our analytical formulas are easy to implement and should prove useful to researchers and practitioners in corporate debt and equity derivatives markets.     

台湾《消费者债务清理条例》评析及对大陆出台个人破产制度的展望

随着中国大陆地区社会主义市场经济体制的确立和深化,无论是在法律制度的设计上还是广大群众的观念接受程度,都需要一定的磨合期,再加上城乡二元结构的差异,使得中国大陆在个人破产制度的推动上难度较大。本文尝试借鉴台湾经验,期望对未来中国大陆个人破产制度的增修作一比较参考,使整体市场退出机制更加完善。     

Default and Recovery Risk Dependencies in a Simple Credit Risk Model

This paper provides evidence for the relationship between credit quality, recovery rate, and correlation. The paper finds that rating grade, rating shift, and macroeconomic factors provide a highly significant explanation for default risk and recovery risk of US bond issues. The empirical data suggest that default and recovery processes are highly correlated. Therefore, a joint approach is required for estimating time‐varying default probabilities and recovery rates that are conditional on default. This paper develops and applies such a model.     

基于信息扩散理论的管道第三方破坏概率模型研究及应用

管道第三方破坏模型中引入信息扩散理论,给出了第三方破坏的概率预测模型,并进行了实例计算。结果表明该模型可以对管道第三方破坏做出有效的概率预测。     

Scoring rules and survey density forecasts

This article provides a practical evaluation of some leading density forecast scoring rules in the context of forecast surveys. We analyse the density forecasts of UK inflation obtained from the Bank of England’s Survey of External Forecasters, considering both the survey average forecasts published in the Bank’s quarterly Inflation Report, and the individual survey responses recently made available to researchers by the Bank. The density forecasts are collected in histogram format, and the ranked probability score (RPS) is shown to have clear advantages over other scoring rules. Missing observations are a feature of forecast surveys, and we introduce an adjustment to the RPS, based on the Yates decomposition, to improve its comparative measurement of forecaster performance in the face of differential non-response. The new measure, denoted RPS*, is recommended to analysts of forecast surveys.     

Disciplinary sanctions in English Premiership Football: Is there a racial dimension?

This paper assesses the evidence for a racial difference in both the dispensation of formal disciplinary sanctions and in the number of fouls called by referees in professional football. The study uses a unique dataset comprising player match-level information drawn from five recent seasons of the English Premiership. These data were merged with data from other sources to identify, among other things, the racial affiliation of the player across four separate categories (viz., white, black, mixed race, and Asian). No systematic evidence of an unfair treatment of players from the non-white minority groups in respect of either the receipt of disciplinary cards or in the number of penalised fouls called by referees was detected.