证券投资组合损失率概率评价模型的开发与实证检验

通过建立证券投资组合损失率概率评价模型,定义损失率概率为单个资产或投资组合的损失率超过市场平均损失率的概率,用于对投资组合的风险进行评价。以某基金为例,计算得到该基金的损失率概率为39.74%,表明该基金有39.74%的概率损失率超过市场平均损失率。以证券投资组合损失率概率最小为目标函数,采用遗传算法进行求解,得出该基金投资组合损失率概率最小时的投资权重系数,最小损失率概率为36.01%,与该基金公司的投资组合相比,损失率概率降低了3.73%,实例证明该模型是降低证券投资组合风险的一种实用方法。     

台湾《消费者债务清理条例》评析及对大陆出台个人破产制度的展望

随着中国大陆地区社会主义市场经济体制的确立和深化,无论是在法律制度的设计上还是广大群众的观念接受程度,都需要一定的磨合期,再加上城乡二元结构的差异,使得中国大陆在个人破产制度的推动上难度较大。本文尝试借鉴台湾经验,期望对未来中国大陆个人破产制度的增修作一比较参考,使整体市场退出机制更加完善。     

购销广告中的数学学问

本文通过对需求市场的分析，得出人们的潜在购买量随广告费的增加而增大。但实际需求量是随机的。为使问题简化，并做出定量分析，本文假定实际需求量服从均匀分布，并用数学方法确定广告费和购进量的最优值。     

信用视角的消费者破产立法原因分析

现代市场经济条件下，消费信用不断向广度和深度发展，以银行为媒介的消费信用更为普遍。经济周期波动、社会不可抗力、银行管理不善、消费者理财不善及恶意欺诈等是消费信用蕴涵的主要风险。消费信用经济的扩大化，使得很多家庭在遇到就业、医疗、婚姻等问题时的脆弱性增加，导致消费者负债额的不断上升，消费者破产制度无疑是应构筑的最关键的和最后的一道防线。     

经济类院校概率统计课程教学的改革与探索

文章提出概率统计课程教学改革的几点建议：教学内容的选择上，要有针对性、专业性、层次性；教学方法的运用上，要注重多样性、灵活性、创新性；同时注意加强数学实验课；数学建模课的教学。强调教学要理论联系实际，培养学生的应用能力。     

Adaptation investments and homeownership

This article develops a model where ownership improves the efficiency of the housing market as it enhances the utility of housing consumption for some consumers. The model is based on an extended Hotelling–Lancaster utility approach in which the ideal variant of housing is obtainable only by adapting the home through a supplementary investment. Ownership offers low costs of adaptation, but has high contract costs compared with renting. Consumers simultaneously choose housing demand and tenure, and because of the different cost structure only consumers with strong preferences for individual adaptation of the home choose ownership. This article analyses the consumer’s optimization. The model provides an explanation for the observation that homeowners typically live in larger dwelling units than tenants. It also provides an explanation for a high price of housing services tending to reduce homeownership rates.     

企业并购估值中的威斯通模型扩展研究

威斯通模型是企业并购估值贴现现金流模型中具有代表性的研究。在威斯通固定增长模型的基础上,建立了考虑未来经营失败概率的估值模型;对威斯通超常增长而后无增长模型进行了修正,探讨了企业在超常增长期采取不同投资策略对其价值的影响,建立了一个更为简明的估值模型,并给出隐含超常增长期限的一种计算方法。     

Instant‐count sampling: A technique for estimating recreation use in municipal settings

Instant‐count sampling was tested on four municipal recreation areas in Athens, Georgia. Users were counted instantaneously on the areas at randomly selected times. From these counts, estimates of use and standard errors were achieved with a minimum of sampling time required. Errors ranged from 10.2 to 37.8 percent of estimated use and did not exceed 23.6 percent for total use.     

DSGE pileups

The sampling distribution of estimators for DSGE structural parameters tends to be non-normal and/or pile up on the boundary of the theoretically admissible parameter space. This calls into question both the reliability of asymptotic approximations and the presumption of correct specification. This paper seeks to develop a conceptual framework for understanding how these phenomena arise, and to provide pragmatic methods for dealing with them in practice. The results are presented in three examples and a medium scale DSGE model.     

Risk analysis of the EASA minimum fuel requirements considering the ACARE-defined safety target

We present the results of flight simulator experiments (60 runs) with randomly selected airline pilots under realistic operational conditions and discuss them in light of current fuel regulations and potential fuel starvation. The experiments were conducted to assess flight crew performance in handling complex technical malfunctions including decision-making in fourth-generation jet aircraft. Our analysis shows that the current fuel requirements of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) are not sufficient to guarantee the safety target of the Advisory Council for Aviation Research and Innovation in Europe (ACARE), which is less than one accident in 10 million flights. To comply with this safety target, we recommend increasing the Final Reserve Fuel from 30 min to 45 min for jet aircraft. The minimum dispatched fuel upon landing should be at least 1 h.