Of lessees,lessors, and discount rates and whether pigs have wings

Recent articles on leasing suggest five principles that should aid analysts to understand this durable, much misunderstood financial instrument. The principles are 1) the lessor must be happy too, 2) the operating inflows have nothing to do with the case, 3) financial, like physical, matter tends to be preserved, 4) debt is a function of after-tax flows, and 5) inability to use tax shelters cuts two ways. In this paper we illustrate these principles and use illustrations to demonstrate that each of these principles has merit. We argue as well that the impression, often left by the principles, that leasing seldom benefits all parties to the transaction is incorrect.     

绿色壁垒的滥用与缺失--发达国家和发展中国家的博弈

绿色壁垒出现的间接原因是为了保护环境,维持可持续发展的需要,直接原因则是贸易保护主义所采取的新的贸易保护手段;基于该手段对于其运用主体有一定的要求,发达国家因此受益。但是基于该壁垒将是发展的大势,发展中国家要加快自身的改革发展,积极应对,将其带来的负面影响降到最低限度。     

西部大开发中的金融市场建设

西部金融市场应该是开放型、复合型的金融市场。开拓完善西部金融市场宜树立大金融概念,从财政、金融、证券、保险、基金等方面着手。面对国际、国内市场化的社会经济环境,构建西部金融市场应主要依靠市场机制的力量,同时,也需要政府部门强有力的扶持。在西部大开发初期,政府的宏观调控和政府扶持尤其重要,本文就此提出了六点金融政策创新建议。     

比较优势与西部开发

落后地区在实现“追赶战略”中有着潜在“比较优势”;西部欠发达地区“比较优势”难以发挥的原因是市场机制不足;西部地区走出困境、重新赢得“比较优势”的内生要求是市场充分运行。     

Testing for weak-form efficiency of crude palm oil spot and future markets: new evidence from a GARCH unit root test with multiple structural breaks

There is a sizeable literature that tests for weak-form efficiency in commodity and energy spot and future prices. While many studies now allow for multiple structural breaks to address the criticism that conventional unit root tests have low power to reject the unit root null in the presence of structural change, the extant literature overlooks the fact that conventional unit root tests are biased in the presence of conditional heteroscedasticity. We apply a recently developed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) unit root test with multiple structural breaks to crude palm oil spot and future prices and find much more evidence against weak-form efficiency than that found using tests that fail to allow for conditional heteroscedasticity. Our results point to the importance of allowing for heteroscedasticity when testing for efficiency in commodity and energy spot and future prices.     

The effects of domestic rice market interventions outside business-as-usual conditions for imported rice prices

The Philippine government intervenes in the domestic rice market through the imposition of import tariffs and the provision of producer and consumer subsidies. While policymakers are aware that these programmes come with allocative efficiency costs, they justify the programmes on the grounds that they insulate the domestic economy from unexpected price spikes in the international rice market. An interesting matter for policy evaluation is to quantify the insulation benefit that the programmes provide in circumstances of sudden severe import price spikes. To examine this question, we undertake a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation in which the Philippines is subject to an external rice price shock. We find that the insulation benefit of the support programmes under a 2008-like event is worth approximately 0.10% of real consumption. However, the cost of insuring against these price spikes is significant. We estimate the annual cost of the rice market interventions at approximately 0.40% of real consumption.     

东北地区与长三角等地区域旅游合作对比研究

文章对比分析了国内区域旅游合作研究与实践的热点地区长三角、泛珠三角、环渤海三个区域的合作过程中取得的成功经验,指出了合作过程中存在的问题。通过东北地区与上述三个区域的对比,分析了东北地区区域旅游合作的基础、优势、存在的问题,针对东北区域旅游合作的实际问题提出了相应建议。     

Technological forecasting at the Korean stock market: A dynamic competition analysis using Lotka–Volterra model

The purpose of this paper is to attempt to analyze the dynamic relationship between the Korean Stock Exchange (KSE) and Korean Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (KOSDAQ), two competing markets at the Korean stock market, in the viewpoint of technological forecasting of competition. The Lotka–Volterra system of equations, one well-known competitive diffusion models, is adopted to represent the competitive situations of the Korean stock market and it is estimated using daily empirical index data of KSE and KOSDAQ during 1997–2001. The results show that there existed a predator–prey relationships between two markets in which KSE acted as a prey for the time being after the emergence of KOSDAQ. This interaction was altered to symbiotic relationship and finally to pure competition relationship. We also perform an equilibrium analysis of the estimated Lotka–Volterra equations. As a result, we find that there is an equilibrium point in a dynamic sense. However, the equilibrium point could be unstable in the latest pure competition relationship.     

加入WTO十年的中国农产品贸易与竞争力问题研究

中国已成为世界农产品贸易大国。在农产品加入WTO十年中,由于成功地运用了两个市场,两种资源的互补性发展格局,带来了农产品贸易额不断增长的可喜局面,但另一方面,由于对外依存度越来越大,农产品国际竞争力整体不强等原因,中国农产品的未来发展仍面临种种问题,因而,制定相应政策目标和政策优化显得极为重要。     

Using dead reckoning in economic projections

Economics is an inexact science, measurement of basic data is at best approximate, and most interesting relationships change relatively rapidly in developing countries. Key variables determining economic prospects are often impossible to include into models. Models and their mathematical algorithms however are deceptively precise, which often complicates the process of constructing and using economic projection models in developing countries.This paper will examine those macro models intended for operational policy purposes and how they are used. These models try to be analytically good and have sufficient plausibility to influence policy. Thus, a great deal of judgment is required in constructing, using, and interpreting projection models in developing countries: the “dead reckoning” element.