国际金融市场与国际原油期货市场溢出效应实证检验——基于VAR-BEKK模型的分析

文章通过构建VAR模型和BEKK模型对道琼斯股票市场、美元/欧元汇率市场与国际原油期货市场的动态关系进行了实证检验。结果表明：道琼斯股票市场与WTI原油期货市场存在双向的价格溢出效应,以及前者向后者的单向波动溢出效应;美元/欧元汇率市场存在向WTI原油期货市场单向的价格溢出效应和波动溢出效应。所以,国际原油期货市场与国际金融市场联系紧密,国际原油的金融属性日益体现,其价格变动更多受外部国际金融市场风险影响。     

异质性企业出口行为的实证研究——基于中国企业面板数据

在近年兴起的新—新贸易理论中,出口行为与企业生产率之间的双向因果关系的实证研究逐渐成为主要的热点领域。许多学者用不同国家企业数据验证了自我选择效应和出口学习效应两个逻辑相反的假设。我们利用中国企业的微观层面数据对该命题进行验证。结果表明,自我选择效应显著,而出口学习效应不显著。最后在分析中国企业国际化行为特征的基础上,给出政策建议。     

中国股市规模效应和账面市值比效应的实证分析

本文以2002—2010年中国A股股票作为研究对象,对中国股市的规模效应和账面市值比效应进行了实证分析。结果表明,在样本期间内中国股市存在规模效应和账面市值比效应,而且规模效应不具有显著性、账面市值比效应具有显著性。本文认为风险溢价和投资者非理性行为的综合作用是规模效应和账面市值比效应产生的主要原因。     

Churn analysis for an Iranian mobile operator

To survive in the challenging environment of a global market, organizations must recognize and analyze customer attitudes. To be competitive, organizations must recognize and forecast customer preferences and behaviors to maximize customer retention before their rivals do so. This research identifies factors that affect customer churn, the single most valuable of an organization's assets. One year's data from call log files relating to 3150 customers were selected randomly from an Iranian mobile operator call-center database. Binomial Logistic Regression was the method of analysis used in this research. The results of this research indicate that a customer's dissatisfaction, their amount of service usage and certain demographic characteristics have the most influence on their decision to remain or churn. The results also imply that customer status (active or inactive status) mediates the relationship between churn and the cause of churn. The Iranian government's current plan to privatize the telecommunications industry without deregulation leads to a non-square competition environment. Deregulation in favor of delegating more authorities of customer care is necessary in order to develop a square private competition environment in the Iranian mobile telecommunications industry.     

基于挤出效应的住房保障规模对商品住房价格的影响

中国房地产市场中保障性住房的角色和作用愈加重要,保障性住房建设规模正在逐年扩大.商品住房价格变化是供给需求作用的结果,但是随着保障房供给规模的增加,商品住房价格的涨幅也会发生改变,说明保障房的供给规模会对普通商品房的供需产生影响.本文以北京市商品住房市场为例,选取住宅需求、住宅供给、住房投机对价格的影响为自变量,住宅价格为因变量,利用多元回归模型对商品住房价格变化进行实证研究,同时通过考虑保障房供给对住房市场产生的不同挤出效应,分析保障房供给规模供需变化对房价产生的影响,进而为政府制定相关的住房保障政策提供建议和对策.     

直接转矩控制技术在油田应用效果分析

介绍一种新型的电机控制技术——直接转矩控制技术,并对该技术在油田现场的应用效果进行了分析。该技术通过控制定子电压,实现了对电机转矩的直接控制。现场节能测试结果表明,节能效果显著。因此,该技术具有一定的经济效益和推广应用价值。     

挪威酒精饮料税收制度改革及其启示

挪威在酒精饮料税收制度方面不但成功地进行了消费税改革,限制了酒精饮料消费,纠正了外部效应,而且还对酒精饮料包装开征了环境税,实施了专款专用政策,平衡酒精饮料消费的私人成本与社会成本,加大违章违法行为惩处力度,并在酒业领域实施专卖制度、许可证制度。这些改革使挪威的酒精饮料税收制度从以税收为基础向以控酒为基础转变,其改革的经验对我国酒精饮料税收制度改革也提供了值得借鉴之处。     

Foresighting FLOSS (free/libre/open source software) from a developing country perspective: The case of Turkey

Since free/libre open source software (FLOSS) promotes collaboration and contributions from different parties in software production and innovation processes, it can create a unique opportunity for developing countries, by generating an innovative capability in software technology. To benefit from this opportunity, it is important to understand the strategic factors and future trends that affect the development of an efficient FLOSS economy in developing countries.This paper aims to examine the strategic factors and future trends that are likely to affect the development and deployment of FLOSS in Turkey. Based on the internal and external factors identified through the practice of technological foresight, a SWOT analysis will be carried out to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for Turkey in creating a competitive software industry that can benefit from the advantages of FLOSS. Accordingly, with regard to the required technical infrastructure, an innovative/competitive business climate, skilled human resources and support for institutional structures, policy suggestions are outlined here that could be usefully implemented by government, industry and universities.     

Technology sourcing and outward FDI: A study of IT industry in India

Dunning’s eclectic or the OLI framework suggests that MNCs exist and grow due to possession of ownership (O) advantages consisting of the tangible and intangible assets of the firm (including technology); location (L) advantages consisting of production factors such as transportation, infrastructure, and human and natural resources available in the host country; and internalisation (I) advantages owing to firm’s competitive advantage in producing internally rather than selling or licensing technologies to others. There are several studies that have analysed MNCs of developed country origin from the perspective of both developed (home) and other developed or developing (host) countries. Recently, however, MNCs from developing countries are also making their presence felt in the world. Yet, there are hardly any studies that analyse MNCs of developing country origin.Using data on 130 firms from the high-tech Information Technology (IT) industry of India, we investigate whether ownership advantages (O), as proposed in the eclectic theory, holds true for the presence of MNCs from developing countries. Specifically, we analyse whether firm-specific technological advantages generated through differential technology sourcing at home (India) are important in determining inter-firm differences in the decision to invest abroad. The technological sources considered are in-house R&D efforts, import of designs, drawing and blueprints, and import of capital goods. The study reveals that in-house R&D efforts are indeed important for the firms to invest abroad. Size and export intensity of the firm also influence the decision of the firm to invest abroad. The study recommends a proper innovation and resource management strategy for developing country firms for efficient allocation of resources, technology sourcing, and technology assimilation.     

兰渝铁路辐射带的经济差异及原因

以人均GDP为主要测度指标,采用GeoDA软件提供的空间分析方法,以兰渝铁路沿线120公里范围内的主要行政单元为研究对象,分析了兰渝铁路辐射带的经济空间分异状况。结果表明:辐射带经济发展水平差异显著,在地理上存在较强的空间依赖性;经济发展的热点区域位于重庆境内,是整个铁路辐射带内的唯一辐射中心,另一个端点城市兰州的辐射能力弱;区内无二级节点城市引导经济发展,因此随着距离的增加,重庆的经济辐射能力呈现出明显的衰减效应。在此基础上,从资源禀赋、政策体制、投资环境、区域软实力等角度分析了影响兰渝铁路辐射带经济差异的主要原因。