Semiparametric time series models driven by latent factor

We introduce a class of semiparametric time series models (SemiParTS) driven by a latent factor process. The proposed SemiParTS class is flexible because, given the latent process, only the conditional mean and variance of the time series are specified. These are the primary features of SemiParTS: (i) no parametric form is assumed for the conditional distribution of the time series given the latent process; (ii) it is suitable for a wide range of data: non-negative, count, bounded, binary, and real-valued time series; (iii) it does not constrain the dispersion parameter to be known. The quasi-likelihood inference is employed in order to estimate the parameters in the mean function. Here, we derive explicit expressions for the marginal moments and for the autocorrelation function of the time series process so that a method of moments can be employed to estimate the dispersion parameter and also the parameters related to the latent process. Simulated results that aim to check the proposed estimation procedure are presented. Forecasting procedures are proposed and evaluated in simulated and real data. Analyses of the number of admissions in a hospital due to asthma and a total insolation time series illustrate the potential for practical situations that involve the proposed models.     

The effects of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries

This study examines the effects of three types of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries with a new method of isolating oil price shocks. Based on monthly data from January 1997 to January 2019, we find that each oil price shock has the largest effect on U.S. inflation among the G7 countries and each country’s response to oil price shocks is different. Moreover, a rolling-window analysis shows that supply shocks, demand shocks and risk shocks have dynamic effects on inflation. The effect of supply shocks on inflation is strong before the financial crisis, but weakens during the crisis. However, the effect of demand shocks increases sharply in this time. The effect of risk shocks mainly occurs during the financial crisis and the European debt crisis. In addition, this study uses two ways to verify the robustness of the results. Our empirical results have important implications for policymakers and manufacturers, since the results provide a good explanation for the response of inflation in the G7 countries to the oil price shocks from different sources.     

Assessing the reversal of investor sentiment

Assessing the reversal of sentiment in stock markets is needed because, according to the social mood cycle, the change of social mood over time is an antecedent of price movements. The purpose of this study is to empirically assess reversal of investor sentiment, to show the phases of social mood cycle from increasing mood to decreasing mood, and to explain the dynamic change in market inefficiency from increasing to decreasing. Growth modeling, developed particularly for dealing with the change over time, is used in this study for assessing the reversal of investor sentiment. The autocovariance structure of errors and the variances/covariances of the random coefficients are all taken into account in the model. The results have indicated that the change in investor sentiment over time is inverted U-shaped for the entire market. Moreover, arbitrage constraint and stock characteristics exert a joint moderating effect on sentiment reversal. Less arbitrage constraint can strengthen sentiment reversal only when the market for individual stocks is dominated by noise traders. Based on the results obtained, we discuss asset pricing, liquidity management, and market intervention.     

Is there a diversification “cost” of Shari’ah compliance? Empirical evidence from Malaysian equities

Islamic equity portfolios work with a smaller investment universe given the filtering of non-Shari’ah compliant stocks. It has been theoretically argued that this culminates in suboptimal portfolio diversification, which in turn adversely affects risk-adjusted returns. We offer empirical evidence that such a conceived portfolio diversification “penalty” is far from a foregone conclusion, at least empirically. Our results tend to indicate that Islamic portfolios are not invariably handicapped in terms of portfolio diversification. We also explored dimensions that may account for differences in the relative investment performance between Islamic and conventional portfolios, such as portfolio constraints, short selling and market conditions. We believe this paper is among the first to apply substantial empirical analysis specifically with respect to the portfolio diversification perspective on Islamic equity investments.     

Assessment and selection of management consultants: A comparative cognitive study between small- and large-scale companies

This paper explores alternative ways of evaluating and ultimately hiring a generalist consultancy for short- and medium-term projects, and how this is shaped by the size of the clients’ company. What buying factors do managers of small and large firms have in mind when hiring consultants for their projects?Instead of employing surveys incorporating predefined buying factors based on what the researchers think would be important, a cognitive mapping methodology - the repertory grid technique - is applied to investigate the underlying phenomena. Using the repertory grid technique to draw mental models is a novel research technique within the supply management field. Recent behavioral supply chain management research found the behavior of managers to be critically influenced by mental models: the lenses through which managers perceive, simplify and interpret the world.Results show differences between the buying factors used in small- and large-scale companies: managers of large companies are more ‘reputation and outcome-oriented’ and managers of small businesses are more concerned with ‘how the services are rendered’. However, both constituents stressed the importance of expertise, quality and the relationship between the client and the management consultancy, although the character of such a relationship differed between small- and large-scale firms. Results also point out criteria that managers of small and large companies employ to discriminate between good and poor performing consultancies and to judge service delivery. The practical implications for both companies hiring consultancies and the consultancy companies are discussed. For consultancies, our findings can help tailoring their efforts to a differing clientele when marketing and selling their services. For companies hiring consultancies, fixating too much on particular buying factors may lead to biased decisions.     

财务共享下管理会计在中小企业的应用研究

为提高企业的综合效益,论文对管理会计在中小企业中的应用问题展开详细讨论,以此为基础,提出管理会计在财务共享模式下的具体应用策略,为中小企业未来的可持续发展及经济效益稳定增长提供有利保证。     

信息化环境下企业内部审计模式思考

随着信息技术的高速发展,大数据技术呈现出爆发增长并逐渐渗入各行各业。基于信息化的大背景,大数据技术已被越来越多的企事业单位广泛运用,为企业发展带来更多可能性。大数据审计作为一种新型内部审计手段,具备独特的优势,将其运用到企业内部审计中可以较大程度提高内部审计的效率。但是它也为内部审计带来了一定不确定性,进而增加其审计风险。论文就大数据审计在企业内部审计中的应用进行了相关分析,并提出了相应的应对措施。     

论企业核心人才的界定与管理

现代企业间的竞争实质上是人才的竞争,特别是核心人才的竞争。企业发展中核心人才是促进企业发展和创新的动力,核心人才的挖掘和管理直接影响企业的命脉,因此,企业必须要加强对核心人才的界定和管理,明确哪些人才为核心人才,并采取针对性的管理方式,才能促进企业的健康发展。论文主要对企业核心人才的界定进行分析,并探究核心人才的管理策略。     

试论基于结构性减税降费的小微企业税收筹划路径

现阶段,我国针对经济的实际情况,推出了一系列减免税优惠政策,以此进一步推动经济的平稳发展,能够有效地帮助一些小微企业缓解经营过程中面临的压力。鉴于此,论文针对现阶段基于结构性减税降费的小微企业税收筹划路径进行分析和阐述。     

试论大数据技术在生态环境保护领域的应用架构及相关技术

促进大数据在生态环境保护领域的深化应用,可以提高生态环境监管能力,并实现环境管理工作精细化。实践中需要把握生态环境信息化的大数据需求,对其应用架构及相关技术进行深入探究,以从多维度出发挖掘有价值的信息,更好地服务生态环境保护工作。