能源消费、经济增长与碳排放关系研究——以福建省为例

改革开放以来,福建省GDP、能源消费量和碳排放量均呈增长趋势。基于协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,考察了福建省1978—2009年能源消费、经济增长和碳排放量之间的关系。结果表明,福建省能源消费、经济增长与碳排放量三者之间存在长期均衡的协整关系;短期内存在着从经济增长到二氧化碳排放以及从能源消费到二氧化碳排放的格兰杰因果关系;长期内存在从经济增长和能源消费到二氧化碳排放的格兰杰因果关系。     

国际碳金融市场发展对我国的启示及借鉴

碳金融市场的发展为控制温室气体排放提供了市场化的手段,同时也促进了金融交易的拓展与金融产业的升级。介绍了国际碳金融市场的市场结构、发展现状及主要经验,认为我国应该借鉴国际碳金融市场发展的经验,从健全法律法规、完善碳交易制度、培育碳金融服务中介、建立碳金融产品体系等方面入手构建我国的碳金融市场。     

中国碳排放量影响因素研究——基于省级面板数据的分析

采用中国30个省（市、区）2000～2010年的相关数据,运用面板数据模型对中国碳排放量的影响因素进行实证研究。面板协整检验表明：区域碳排放量与人均GDP、产业结构、人口数量、能源价格、能源效率和人均可支配收入之间存在长期稳定的内生经济关系。运用面板模型估计各因素的影响系数分析,认为对中国东部、中部、西部地区碳排放量影响最大的三大因素为人均GDP、人口数量和能源效率。     

The Goals of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality and China’s New Energy Revolution

Based on the full consideration of both domestic and global environments and conditions, the adherence to the conviction that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets, and the comprehensive weighing of pros and cons, the Chinese government has made a major strategic decision to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, which is crucial to the overall green transformation of the economy and society and the long-term benefits of the Chinese nation. With the new energy revolution and energy mix diversification driven by the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, nonfossil energy sources centered on photovoltaic energy will gradually dominate the energy mix, while the status of electricity and hydrogen energy will be significantly enhanced and the consumption of coal and petroleum will decline significantly. Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals are both challenges and opportunities for China. Specific challenges are embodied in the large pressure of economic and energy restructuring, the rising manufacturing costs, the difficulties in withdrawing coal-fired power stations, the possibility of unstable grid operations due to large-scale integration of photovoltaic and wind power into the power distribution network, and the supply risks of key metals, while specific opportunities are emerging in the strong competitiveness of photovoltaic and wind power equipment, lower dependence on foreign petroleum and gas supply and accelerated low-carbon green transformation. China should strengthen the top-level design of the path to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, encourage innovation of green low-carbon technologies, accelerate economic and energy restructuring, strictly restrict the construction of new high-emission and energy-intensive projects, and steadily promote the adjustment and withdrawal of the existing high-emission and energy-intensive projects.     

International Experience,China’s Development and Prospect of Carbon Market Construction

Carbon market, which is capable of scientific quantifying and marked-based pricing of carbon emission, is an important way for countries to achieve the target of carbon emission reduction. The global carbon market, after more than ten years of development, has developed a mature mechanism. China started the trial of carbon market in 2011. After ten years of exploration, the national carbon trading market was officially launched in mid-July 2021. Against the backdrop of carbon neutrality, the national carbon market will shoulder a greater mission of carbon emission reduction and speed up its financialization and internationalization. However, it should take a dialectical attitude toward the opportunities and risks of carbon market financialization. In the future, China can promote the development of carbon market through efforts to develop market participants, clarify the attributes of carbon finance, prevent potential risks of carbon finance, improve the connection mechanism with the international carbon market, and innovate carbon finance services.     

碳排放权交易、损益偏离与绿色经济效率关系研究

"双碳"目标展现了中国作为负责任的大国,对建设人类命运共同体的担当,碳排放权交易是实现这一目标的重要途径,但其对地区经济与环境的双重影响依然有待检验。结合1997—2017年中国省级数据,采用包含非期望产出的SBM-DEA模型测度地区绿色经济效率,以碳排放权交易试点为准自然实验,运用合成控制法评估试点政策对地区绿色经济效率的影响,并采用空间计量模型从损益偏离视角展开机制检验。研究发现:碳排放权交易试点政策能够显著提升地区经济效率,运用双重差分模型和PSM-DID进行稳健性检验后,基本结论依然可靠。缓解"收益在外,污染在内"的损益偏离现象,是碳排放权交易试点机制提升绿色经济效率的有效途径。随后提出通过进一步完善碳排放权交易市场机制,进而推动我国绿色发展的相关政策启示。     

低碳物流探析

低碳物流是物流产业在低碳经济背景下发展的新阶段,其与低碳经济的发展理念保持一致。中国物流产业存在低碳意识薄弱、装备和技术水平落后、信息化水平低、粗放经营等问题。建立低碳物流,应积极引进或开发低碳物流技术,建立低碳物流信息系统,推行共同配送、第三方物流和逆向物流的运作体系,同时还应有政府在金融、税收政策和法律法规方面的支持。     

中国CO_2排放与经济增长联动性实证分析

笔者在测算我国1953年～2007年间CO2排放量的基础上,通过对数据的经济计量检验,建立联立方程组模型,研究CO2排放量与人均GDP间双向因果关系,并分析各种因素对CO2排放量的影响。实证结果显示,我国CO2排放量与人均GDP间变动关系并不是简单EKC模型中的倒U型,有着更为复杂的相互作用关联。人均GDP提高导致CO2排放量上升的同时,能源利用效率的提高、能源消费结构的改善,以及资本设备更新速度的加快,都将减少CO2排放。     

低碳经济发展中的碳排放驱动因素实证研究——以浙江省为例

本文基于三大产业和居民生活部门的12种能源消费量数据,较全面地测算了1995—2008年浙江省碳排放量,建立了碳排放驱动因素分解模型,将碳排放的驱动因素分解为能源强度、结构调整、经济发展和人口规模等四大类效应,并采用对数平均权重分解法(LMDI)测算了各类效应对碳排放量的贡献值、变化趋势及相互作用机理。研究结果表明,1995—2008年,浙江省碳排放量呈现不断上升的趋势;经济发展和人口规模对碳排放的正向驱动效应远超过能源强度和结构调整产生的负向驱动效应。本文同时测算出浙江已跨越了碳排放强度的高峰阶段,但仍处于碳排放强度高峰迈向人均碳排放量高峰的阶段。为缩短不同碳排放高峰的跨越时间,降低高峰峰值,本文提出了加快低碳经济发展的相关政策建议。     

瑞典碳税对产业结构水平影响的实证分析

为了降低二氧化碳的排放水平,实现可持续发展,一些国家以碳税作为发展低碳经济的重要手段。碳税是从多方面促进低碳经济的,对产业结构的升级和转型至关重要。在分析瑞典碳税政策、测算瑞典产业结构水平的基础上,本文对瑞典碳税与产业结构水平的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明,瑞典碳税是提高瑞典产业结构水平的重要因素。据此,本文提出了关于我国开征碳税的建议。