Comments on “Consumption Values of Trade Unions”

The credit default swap (CDS) is implicated in the global financial crises because a vast market for securities collateralized by subprime mortgages and consumer debt could not have materialized if hedge funds and other holders of these instruments lacked a means of hedging default "risk." The argument is made that the CDS is an inherently defective concept because it is based on the assumption that future states of the economy are subject to probabilistic risk as opposed to uncertainty in the Keynes-Knight-Shackle-Davidson sense. The CDS also manifests the paradox of derivatives. By enabling individual money managers to safely increase leverage, it causes a system-wide buildup of leverage and financial fragility.     

A cause for policy concern: the expansion of household credit in middle-income economies

This article discusses the significance of the recent growth in household credit across a range of middle-income economies. This growth is understood primarily as a result of policy, including the promotion of individual borrowing as a means to fund access to housing, education and health. A formal model of credit extension and allocation is developed, establishing that consumption lending makes a comparatively stronger contribution to aggregate profitability as well as financial fragility than production lending. Consumption lending may be understood to create distinctive endogenous tendencies to credit-market instability. The findings point to the need for a critical reconsideration of reliance on this lending for social and macroeconomic policy.     

有关外贸企业信用风险及其管理的研究

随着我国市场经济的不断发展,外贸企业之间的竞争日益激烈。很多外贸企业为了占据国外市场,会推出优惠的信用条件,以此作为增加客户的手段,但其信用风险也会随之增加。分析了导致外贸企业信用风险增加的原因,并提出对应管理措施。只有不断降低信用风险,以此提高外贸企业的竞争力,才能使企业不断扩大经营规模,促进企业的不断发展。     

Monetary dynamics: a market approach

The behaviour of the short-run responses implied by the identification of a long-run money demand relationship is examined. These responses have recently been interpreted as representing the policy stance of the monetary authority. However, as movements in the monetary aggregate reflect both demand and supply adjustments, estimating the short-run dynamics solely within the money demand relationship may produce biased results. In order to address this issue, the paper explicitly acknowledges the importance of the supply of money function by including the function alongside the demand for money function. While the interaction of the two equations continues to produce the long-run quantity theory result, the additional detail provides more accurate estimates of the individual short-run adjustments within the two equations.     

Jointly issued notes: a financial instrument to improve SME credit worthiness in China

A financial instrument to improve the credit worthiness of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), i.e. Jointly Issued Notes (JINs), improves the average credit rating of SMEs by eight notches, from BBB to AA+, thus reducing borrowing cost by 298 basis points. This research note describes the various kinds of JINs, and then analyzes their effect on the credit worthiness of SMEs. We conclude that the JINs successfully facilitate access to credit at lower rates in China.     

Financial deregulation,credit allocation across sectors,and economic growth: evidence from China

This paper investigates whether financial deregulation causes economic growth through financial development. Financial development is measured by two channels: (1) changes in the allocation of credit across sectors, and (2) changes in savings and investment rates. We measure financial deregulation in China at the provincial level from 1981 to 1998. Our results suggest that financial reform causes economic growth in China. Further, its effect largely comes through the reallocation of credit across sectors, rather than changes in savings and investment rates.     

Analyzing the role of mutual guarantee societies on bank capital requirements for small and medium-sized enterprises

This paper analyzes the impact of the guarantee provided by mutual guarantee societies (MGSs) on the risk premium that banks should charge for small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) loans under the new Basel Capital Accords (Basel II and III). We also examine whether the foreseeable decrease in the theoretical credit risk premium would be compensated by the cost of the MGS guarantee. To do so, we develop a rating system for SMEs that uses a large sample of Spanish firms over the period from 2005 to 2009. We find that the final effect of the guarantee on the SME risk premium depends on the values taken by the credit variables of the MGS (essentially, the probability of default).     

Does Targeted Monetary Policy Matter? A Perspective from China

Several major central banks have experimented with targeted monetary policy to improve credit resource allocation. This policy only applies to ‘eligible’ banks. For example, The People's Bank of China conducted seven targeted reductions of reserve requirements during 2014–15. This article documents the phenomenon of targeted monetary policy and evaluates its effects. The results show that, in the case of China, this policy has generated an extra significant, positive return on the stocks of eligible banks, amounting to 1.2–1.3 per cent in a four‐day treatment period. This substantial return gives commercial banks an extra incentive to align with the policy goals of central banks.     

我国消费信用存在的问题与对策探讨

消费信用是我国经济发展的内在动力。然而,目前我国消费信用存在着诸如消费信用品种及其提供者缺乏、风险控制能力不足、法律法规不健全等问题。今后,我们应该转变消费观念,倡导居民消费信用,健全个人消费信用体系,建立和完善相关配套法律法规等,从而使我国的消费信用更加科学有序地发展。     

信用对服务业增长的影响：理论探讨与经验研究

本文首先通过超边际分析对信用促进服务业发展的机制进行形式化证明,然后利用包括32个OECD经济体与90个非OECD经济体在内的共122个国家或地区1997-2011年的数据,运用静态面板固定效应模型和动态面板FD-GMM估计方法,并按照全部样本、OECD样本与非OECD样本的类型进行经验研究,最后审查了研究结论在中国的适用性。结果发现：静态面板模型下,信用水平与服务业增长率显著正相关,这一结论对全部样本、OECD样本、非OECD样本都成立;动态面板模型下,信用对服务业增长的促进作用在全部样本与非OECD样本中仍显著,但是在OECD样本中不显著;信用推动服务业增长的边际生产力随着信用存量的增加而递减;信用是推动我国服务业增长的重要因素,且其边际生产力较高。