影响我国寿险业需求因素的实证分析

本文应用多元回归的方法建立模型,利用1985～2002年的时间序列数据,尝试性地对影响我国寿险业需求的主要因素--国内生产总值、基尼系数、市场化水平、名义利率、通货膨胀率等因素进行实证分析,得出了初步结论.     

China's health care reform: A tentative assessment

China has recently unveiled an ambitious new health-care reform plan, entailing a doubling of government health spending as well as a number of concrete reforms. While the details of the plan have not yet been completely announced, we offer a preliminary assessment of how well the reform is likely to achieve its stated goal of assuring every citizen equal access to affordable basic health care. The reform is based on three fundamental tenets: strong role of government in health, commitment to equity, and willingness to experiment with regulated market approaches. Within this framework, the reform offers a number of laudable changes to the health system, including an increase in public health financing, an expansion of primary health facilities and an increase in subsidies to achieve universal insurance coverage. However, it fails to address the root causes of the wastes and inefficiencies plaguing China's health care system, such as a fragmented delivery system and provider incentives to over-provide expensive tests and services. We conclude that China should consider changing the provider payment method from fee-for-service to a prospective payment method such as DRG or capitation with pay-for-performance, and to develop purchasing agencies that represent the interests of the population so as to enhance competition.     

内蒙古牧区社会保障问题研究——以西乌珠穆沁旗为例

内蒙古牧民基本养老保险制度和医疗保险制度的确立在一定程度上解决了老年牧民的后顾之忧,它的实行是改革开放成果惠及人民群众的体现,但内蒙古牧区有别于传统意义上的农村,农村社会保障体系在此并不完全适用。因此,有关部门在设计好相关制度的同时,应加大对贫困地区和贫困牧民的财政支持力度;大力宣传牧民养老保险制度和基本医疗合作保险制度的宣传,提高牧民的保险意识;扩大蒙医蒙药的覆盖范围。     

中国工程保险模式的选择

在经济全球化和科技信息化的推动下,高技术含量、高附加值和综合性建设项目日益增多,同时随着投资体制深化改革,投资主体多元化已成趋势。在允许非公有制资本进入法律未禁入的基础设施和公用事业情况下,如何引导和管理民间投资、保证工程质量、分散经济风险成为下一步改革的题中之议。笔者认为,借鉴国外经验,结合中国实际,采用业主为主安排的工程保险模式,不仅有利于保证工程质量和投资效益,而且有利于建立投资主体的利益激励和风险约束机制。     

Large portfolio losses

This paper provide a large-deviations approximation of the tail distribution of total financial losses on a portfolio consisting of many positions. Applications include the total default losses on a bank portfolio, or the total claims against an insurer. The results may be useful in allocating exposure limits, and in allocating risk capital across different lines of business. Assuming that, for a given total loss, the distress caused by the loss is larger if the loss occurs within a smaller time period, we provide a large-deviations estimate of the likelihood that there will exist a sub-period of the future planning period during which a total loss of the critical severity occurs. Under conditions, this calculation is reduced to the calculation of the likelihood of the same sized loss over an initial time interval whose length is a property of the portfolio and the critical loss level.Received: March 2003Mathematics Subject Classification: 60F10, 91B28, 91B28JEL Classification: G21, G22, G33Amir Dembo is with the Department of Statistics, Stanford University. His research was partially supported by NSF grant #DMS-0072331. Jean-Dominique Deuschel is with the Department of Mathematics, Technische Universität, Berlin. His research was partially supported by DFG grant #663/2-3 and DFG FZT 86. Darrell Duffie is with the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. We are extremely grateful for research assistance by Nicolae Gârleanu and Gustavo Manso, for conversations with Michael Gordy, and for comments from Michael Stutzer, Peter Carr, David Heath, and David Siegmund.     

A Value at Risk Approach to Background Risk

This paper studies the effects of an uninsurable background risk (BR) on the demand for insurance (proportional and with deductible). We study both the case of BR uncorrelated with the insurable one and the perfectly correlated one, in a Gaussian world. In order to perform our study, we exploit the new risk measure known as Value at Risk (VaR) and consider insurance contracts which are Mean-VaR efficient. We obtain results which depend on the parameters (moments) of both risks and on the magnitude of loadings charged by the insurance company, instead of depending on the risk attitudes of the insured, such as risk aversion and prudence.We demonstrate that, if loadings are not too high, the demand for insurance increases with positively correlated BR; it decreases with BR negatively correlated if the latter is less risky than the insurable one (in this case it can even go to zero, if loadings are too high); it goes to zero with BR which is negatively correlated and more risky than the insurable one.     

澳大利亚基本医疗保险管理体静

澳大利亚拥有世界一流的健康服务体系。国民医疗保险作为政府主导下的全民医疗保险,保障了所有澳大利亚居民都可以获得必要的和高质量的治疗、药物及医院服务。澳大利亚政府的国民服务部负责国民医疗保险的具体管理并提供服务。同时,澳大利亚政府鼓励居民在国民医疗保险之外,积极参加私人医疗保险。94％以上的澳大利亚居民对基本医疗保险满意。通过介绍澳大利亚国民医疗保险及政府对其管理的基本情况,旨在为我国医疗保险制度的改革提供参考。     

基于农村居民最低养老水平的财政支付能力研究

基于农村居民现实最低养老需求,对我国财政的养老补贴支付能力进行测算分析。以修正恩格尔系数为基础测度了农村居民最低养老保险水平,并依据农村恩格尔系数及物价指数的历史变动趋势,预测了2010-2020年农村最低养老动态水平;利用财政收入规模的自回归模型预测了2010-2020年的财政收入规模,结合普惠型养老金总额应为财政收入的5%国际经验,对基本养老金以及最低养老需求占财政收入的比重进行了测算和评价。目前的基本养老金在短期内对改善农村老年人生活有重要作用,但长期来看还需要不断增加,应优化财政支出结构。     

我国工业企业社会保险负担的区域差异分析——基于超越对数生产函数的实证研究

本文设计了企业社会保险负担率的指标,并根据超越对数生产函数构建了社会保险负担率的测算模型,分析了各地区工业企业的社会保险负担差异。结果表明：第一,我国工业企业社会保险负担从大到小依次是：中部、西部、东部、东北。与当前社会保险＂主要向西部地区和东北地区倾斜＂倾斜的政策取向存在一定差异。第二,各地区的企业社会保险负担位次,与企业利润水平位次负相关。因此确定企业社会保险缴费基数,应当综合考虑企业劳动报酬和利润水平因素。第三,企业社会保险负担位次与资本投入水平的位次负相关,企业社会保险负担增加将导致资本对劳动的替代,对就业问题产生一定影响。