Repeated Dichotomous Choice Formats for Elicitation of Willingness to Pay: Simultaneous Estimation and Anchoring Effect

Repeated dichotomous choice contingent valuation data are generated from responses to a succession of binary questions regarding alternative prices for an environmental good. In this paper we propose a simultaneous equation model that allows for endogeneity and error correlation across the responses at each stage of the bidding process. The model allows us to study the evolution of anchoring effects after the second dichotomous choice question. Estimation involves the Bayesian techniques of Gibbs sampling and data augmentation, and the application focuses on the preservation value of a natural area. The results for a data set involving up to four successive dichotomous choice questions show that restricted multiple-bounded models are rejected by the data with the general model. In addition, willingness to pay tends to stabilize after the second stage in the elicitation process for the general unrestricted model. When taking anchoring effects into consideration, it is revealed that individuals’ responses in the latter stages are influenced by the sequence of bid prices offered in earlier questions. Nevertheless, they do not have a significant effect on welfare estimates.      

Evidence from China on the value relevance of operating income vs. below-the-line items

This study investigates the value relevance of operating income vs. below-the-line items in the Chinese stock market. The motivations for this study are twofold. First, there is a need for empirical evidence of the value relevance of earnings components given that previous findings of value relevance in China at the aggregate level have often been questioned in the literature. Second, the reporting environment for earnings components in China provides an interesting opportunity to present additional evidence on the pricing of persistent vs. less persistent earnings. Chinese GAAP is more specific in defining the scope and specifying the format of reporting earnings components with different levels of persistence. In addition, differing from the U.S. evidence in the extant literature, below-the-line items in China is overwhelmingly income-increasing and frequently account for a large percentage of a firm's reported net income. By linking valuation analysis with earnings time-series properties, we present additional evidence to support value relevance in China: An earnings component is impounded in stock prices as long as it is persistent and nonpersistent below-the-line items are value irrelevant. However, the time-series properties of earnings components are not fully priced by the market. The earnings-response coefficients are larger for below-the-line items than for operating income, although below-the-line items are less persistent and have lower predictive power. In discussing this pricing anomaly, we identify some unique institutional factors that may be responsible for the results.     

关于保险企业营销队伍建设的思考

保险营销是保险市场开放和保险业务发展的必然产物 ,保险营销队伍建设是保险营销业务健康发展的基础性工作和根本保证。保险公司在大力发展保险营销业务的同时 ,必须注意抓好保险营销人员队伍建设 ,培训保险营销队伍的爱岗敬业精神和集体团队精神 ,努力为营销人员创造施展才能、实现自我价值的空间 ,保证营销队伍的稳定发展和健康发展     

Consistency in Mixed Demand Systems: Contingent Valuation and Travel Cost Data

In contrast to previous literature, we propose a consistency test that does not impose any particular common functional form for the preference structure underlying the travel cost (TC) and contingent valuation (CV) models. We derive testable consistency conditions between TC and CV data in the context of mixed demand systems when valuing changes in environmental quality. These conditions are a subset of the rationality conditions. The proposed consistency tests are implemented combining TC and CV data. The empirical results show that it is possible to combine stated TC and CV, but not revealed TC and CV data.     

On a 2 × 2 factorial design where the use of randomized response is one of the factors

This paper discusses a survey where some respondents were asked sensitive questions directly and others were asked the same questions using randomized response. The use of randomized response was a factor in a 2 × 2 factorial design and dice were used to perform the randomization. First, the paper shows that the perturbation due to the dice can be described using the concept of misclassification and known conditional misclassification probabilities. Second, the paper formulates the likelihood for loglinear models and shows that latent class software can be used to analyse the data. An example including a power analysis is discussed.     

Valuing high altitude spruce-fir forest improvements: importance of forest condition and recreation activity

High altitude spruce fir forests are typical around the world and are often subjected to multiple forms of recreational use. In this paper, we use household and recreation group data for a spruce fir forest high in the Appalachian Mountains of the U. S. to evaluate the benefits from forest protection (i. e., from improving the forest condition). Our benefits estimation procedures use the referendum-type, contingent valuation (CV) approach of Cameron (1988). We modify the usual practice of obtaining a single willingness-to-pay (WTP) value by using alternative questionnaire scenarios and conducting tests to examine i) household and recreation group value sensitivity to forest condition, and ii) recreation group differences in WTP for forest protection. A first sample of southeastern U. S. households was asked to value a forest protection program for a spruce-fir forest showing no impact from insect disturbance or atmospheric deposition. The second sample was asked to value a protection program for a forest already experiencing impact from insect infestation and air pollution. Logit analysis of the two samples revealed no statistically significant difference in household WTP between the two forest protection programs. Further analysis indicated that consumptive forest users (i. e., hunters and anglers) held forest protection values that were sensitive to a change forest condition, while nonconsumptive forest users (i. e., campers and hikers) held values that were insensitive to the same condition change. Recreation group comparisons revealed that consumptive forest users also held lower values for forest protection than nonconsumptive recreationists. These results demonstrate the importance of estimating public values for forest protection in terms of heterogeneous groups rather than as a homogeneous whole.     

项目管理技术在国家审计项目管理中的应用

项目管理方法和应用工具的不断完善和创新,使得项目管理技术日臻成熟,并大大拓展了项目管理技术方法的应用领域。国家审计项目管理和现代项目管理在理论和实务两方面都具有高度的一致性,项目管理的绝大部分技术都能在国家审计项目管理中得到应用和推广,包括审计项目的计划管理、成本管理、进度管理、风险管理、后评估等多个方面。充分借鉴项目管理技术,可以有效解决我国国家审计项目管理中存在的缺乏审计项目管理标准、项目控制流于形式、审计质量控制流程薄弱、审计风险控制能力差、审计效率低下等突出问题,促进审计工作的科学化和规范化。     

小型潜水电泵监督抽查的技术标准

文章提出了小型潜水电泵监督抽查依据的国家行业技术标准。