论金融危机中美国的错误逻辑

2008年的金融危机到现在已过五个年头,美国的经济仍没恢复,欧洲各国又陷入更深的危机之中。因此许多人反思美国人错在哪里？为此,我们首先分析了金融危机对美国经济的冲击,让美国人看到错误逻辑的危害;第二,挖掘美国错误逻辑的社会根源;第三,分析美国怎样才能改变错误的逻辑。     

我国的财政赤字与李嘉图等价:1981-2010

李嘉图等价定理认为,在一定的条件下政府财政赤字通过债务发行还是增加税收来融资是无关紧要的,政府支出与总需求无关。这是因为理性的经济主体会意识到当前的赤字就是将来的税收负担。文章根据我国1981-2010年的时间序列数据,利用协整分析方法和向量误差修正模型,对李嘉图等价的有效性进行了检验。实证结果表明:无论长期还是短期李嘉图等价定理在我国并不成立,财政支出对居民消费具有促进作用,逆周期的积极的财政政策是有效的。这很可能是由于李嘉图等价定理的前提条件在我国尚不存在。但实证结果也显示,居民可支配收入对居民消费的影响远远大于财政赤字和国债发行。因此通过减税等政策措施增加居民可支配收入应当成为财政政策的重点。     

财政赤字规模应把握社会承受力限度

平衡财政赤字有举债和银行透支两个途径,二者可兼用。举债要视当期财政收入状况为前提,银行透支超越社会承受力一定限度将致发通胀。因此,必须关注财政赤字规模的社会承受力。从全国看,财政赤字规模---一定限量银行透支应以一定限量社会闲置货币资金的存在---社会承受力为依托。财政赤字宜用积极手段平衡。     

美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率的灰色关联度分析

运用灰色关联度分析方法研究美中经常性贸易逆差与人民币汇率以及美国对华限制出口的相关关系,研究表明:人民币汇率与美中贸易逆差灰色关联度较小,显著小于与美国对华高科技出口限制因素的关联性.因此,不存在我国操纵汇率补贴出口企业保持对美国的贸易高顺差,美中贸易逆差主要是结构性逆差以及美国对华限制性出口政策的结果,人民币升值无益于美中贸易逆差的缩小.     

财政赤字与积极财政政策

财政赤字是宏观调控的手段，对其评价，关键是看宏观经济状况和社会总需求小于总供给，财政赤字就是好的；社会总需求大于总供给，就不能搞财政赤字。因此，对于积极财政政策淡出的时机及其进度，需要认真选择。     

Simulation Analysis of Public Debt and Fiscal Deficit in Austria – Optimal Economic Policies for the Past and the Future

The macroeconometric simulation model AMOD1 and the optimization algorithm OPTCON are used to evaluate fiscal policies for Austria since the late seventies. In particular, the question of optimal (debt stabilizing) fiscal policies for the past and for the future is analyzed within the framework of a medium-scaled simulation model. The first set of optimization experiments aims to assess optimal fiscal policies for debt stabilization for the historical period 1978–2000 while trying to maintain reasonable growth rates of approximately 2 percent of real GDP. Optimal values of the instruments and the targets are compared to empirical data for Austria. A second set of simulations calculates optimal paths for the fiscal instruments for the period 2001-2010, particularly with respect to the criteria of the Stability and Growth Pact, which is mandatory for member states of the Euro zone.     

Covid-19, Economic Growth and South African Fiscal Policy

Following years of fast-rising debt levels, we show that the Covid-19 crisis worsened an already deteriorating fiscal position in South Africa. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short-run, once-off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth. We then explore the past efforts of government to maintain or restore fiscal sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function using a Markov-switching model. Following the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the budget, we subsequently establish the deficit, expenditure and revenue adjustments that the government will have to make to restore fiscal sustainability. Finally, we consider the merits of introducing a debt ceiling.     

日本应对新冠疫情的经济刺激政策及其制度性扭曲

面对新冠疫情的严重冲击,日本政府通过空前财政支持,日本银行辅以超额基础货币支持等公开市场操作,一定程度上抑制了企业大规模破产、大量工人失业和严重经济衰退,同时也直接带来了日本股市的空前繁荣。但过度财政刺激极大加重了日本政府的国债负担,长期"超量化宽松"的金融政策严重扭曲了市场的资源配置功能,极大削弱了日本市场经济体制的政策应对弹性和抗打压能力,事实上形成了一种变相向国民征税的市场外循环体系和制度性扭曲。     

Experimental evidence on the resilience of a cap & trade system for land consumption in Germany

The German government has committed to substantially limiting future land consumption. Among the most prominently discussed policy instruments is the implementation of a cap & trade system for land consumption, in which a limited amount of certificates is allocated to and traded by municipalities. Since these certificates would be a prerequisite for conducting building projects, this system is expected to reduce urban sprawl and foster the efficient allocation of land consumption projects. While previous empirical studies have supported these projections, the potential fragility of a cap & trade system in the case of macroeconomic shocks has not been considered. In three laboratory experiments, we simulate the impact of economic and budgetary crises within a cap & trade scheme for land consumption. We find that a market-based system succeeds in compensating macroeconomic disturbances with only minor welfare losses. Certificate prices in auctions and trading are somewhat more volatile before shocks, yet normalize afterwards. Trading volumes and the specifics of project realizations remain largely unaffected. Unrelated to the macroeconomic shocks, auction and market prices persistently diverge, leading to income redistributions to the state. Overall, our evidence supports the introduction of a market-based certificate scheme to reduce land consumption in Germany due to its resilience against potential shocks.     

FTPL-Perspective on Tradable Deficit Permits in the EMU

The Growth and Stability Pact restricts member states in their fiscal policy but also causes inflexibility in the pursuit of wide-ranging economic and social reforms. Tradable deficit permits allow more flexibility for individual member states and provide a stick for those who exceed the deficit limit but also a carrot to those who stay below it. But does the trade in deficit permits affect the monetary objectives of the European Central Bank (ECB)? We argue that from a perspective of fiscal theory of the price level, trade in deficit permits can lead to higher inflation depending on the growth rate and the debt/GDP ratio of the member states.