How does the Funding Status of Defined Benefit Pension Plans Affect Investment Decisions of Firms in the United States?

We investigate whether the flexibility in making contributions towards defined benefit pension plans sponsored by firms in the United States allows managers to save cash and increase investments. Firms invest more at higher levels of pension deficit, defined as pension benefit obligations less pension assets, and scaled by total assets. At the median level (90^th percentile) of pension deficit, investments increase by 6.7 cents (9.4 cents) for every dollar increase in cash. As the pension deficit increases, firms deviate more from the predicted level of investment. These findings suggest that the incremental investments are more likely to represent overinvestment by managers. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and endogeneity concerns that may arise if investments are jointly determined with the funding policy of pension plans and the firm's target cash level. We repeat our main analysis for the United Kingdom and also find for that country that, at a fixed cash level, total investment increases as pension deficit increases.     

The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances: Evidence from the European Union

We revisit the relation between budget deficits and current account deficits for 28 European Union countries from 1996 to 2019. We find that an increase in budget deficit of 1 pp of GDP results in a deterioration of the current account deficit of 0.318 pp of GDP, which supports the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. On the other hand, dynamic panel estimates partially corroborate the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis in the presence of a fiscal rules index. In addition: i) the relation between the two deficits is asymmetric and the negative impact of the recent Eurozone banking and sovereign debt crisis on the current account balance is observed; ii) with right-wing governments, the impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is mitigated; if the government is on the left, the impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is amplified; iii) after 2010, the budget balance positively affects the current account balance; and iv) the positive impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is higher in the cases of non-Eurozone countries, high budget deficit countries, and low exports countries, whereas it is lower in the cases of Eurozone countries, low budget deficit countries, and high exports countries.     

Fiscal deficits and the socioeconomic consequences of rebalancing: Insights from a TVP-VAR with stochastic volatility

This article connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert, Horn, & Paetz, 2019); (ii) the unemployment-output trade-off is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behaviour of fiscal deficit shocks and the unemployment-output trade-off is studied in this article using a time-varying parameter (TVP) vector autoregression (VAR) with stochastic volatility techniques applied to the analysis of data from Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States of America. We confirm the trade-off heterogeneity across country, and its time-varying nature across time, showing in addition its fluctuation around a long-run reference value. We document significant short-run impacts of fiscal shocks on the unemployment-output trade-off which, based on the experience of the Global Financial Crisis, becomes larger in periods of economic turmoil. Policy-wise, the rebalancing of public finances may have unexpected adverse effects on job creation if implemented during slumps, precisely when the labour market sensitivity with respect to the performance of the product market is likely to be more acute. This message is particularly relevant in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.     

Do independent fiscal institutions cause better fiscal outcomes in the European Union?

This paper explores the budgetary implications of the independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) in the European Union (EU). We employ a dynamic panel model for the period 2000–2019 and find that these fiscal watchdogs have a positive and significant influence not only on government budget balance for the EU member states, resulting in smaller government budget deficits, but also on countries’ compliance with fiscal rules, results that hold across alternative fiscal balances. IFIs appear to have a beneficial impact on fiscal performance and compliance with numerical targets in countries with poorly designed fiscal responsibility norms but weaker influence when fiscal rules are less binding (well-designed fiscal rules). The findings remain significant regardless the year of accession to the EU (old vs. new members) or euro-area status (euro-area vs. non-euro-area members). However, we document that IFIs play a larger role in countries that established these monitoring bodies before 2013, indicating that experience matters in IFI performance. Also, our findings show that the influence of IFIs remains if we take into account institutional reforms in which their mandates were extended with different powers and tasks, which has a positive and significant effect on fiscal balances. Moreover, we find that, under the circumstance of systemic and banking crises, these institutions are associated with improved fiscal outcomes, reflecting their increased concern about the path of public finances and their role in reducing budgetary forecasting biases. Our results are robust to a variety of specifications and models, including alternative measures of the government budget balance and after controlling for a set of institutional characteristics and for potential endogeneity in the estimations.     

Has the acceleration of privatization become inevitable in Bahrain?

Bahrain remains the most vulnerable Gulf country due to its limited savings and sharp rise in debt levels, leaving it exposed to high financing risks. The financial crisis has been deepened by the economic double blow of the decline in oil prices and the effects resulting from the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. Bahrain has decreased subsidies and increased taxes on many products. Those measures seem, however, insufficient to mitigate the negative impacts on the economy. This paper presents a model based on a comparison between fast privatization and gradual privatization strategies undertaken in some Bahraini economic sectors. It shows that the contribution of privatization to economic restructuring is only as effective as the commitment of the government to maintain a high pace of privatization. This condition can provide needed revenues, and can particularly foster private investments and initiatives. Therefore, it may represent an appropriate context to elevate Bahrain out of the present equilibrium characterized by slow privatization and government dominance on the economy.