发展地方特色经济的组织形式选择及其政策分析

文章从不同的视角对产业集群的优越性进行了论述,认为它是发展地方特色经济的最佳组织选择。然后就如何发展具有地方特色的产业集群提出了相应的政策建议。     

我国建国后死刑政策分析及建议

死刑的制定、实施乃至存废都与死刑政策密切相关。新中国成立后,我国死刑政策的发展大致经历了三个阶段。当今世界各国死刑政策已经或者逐步向着死刑当废的方向发展,在这一背景下,我国未来的死刑政策宜作相应调整。     

中日韩的FTA进程及其政策比较分析

中国、日本和韩国的FTA已经起步并正在争先恐后、竞争性地加快其速度。其中,日本和韩国迅速地调整和明确了FTA战略,设立专门机构,扩充人员编制,制定相关法规使FTA走向制度化,并加强有关FTA的系统研究,进行可行性论证,为决策提供科学依据。尽管中国作为发展中国家推行投资贸易自由化对国内产业将造成较大的冲击,但还是在积极推进。在这一过程中,中国还缺乏FTA总体战略规划,缺乏FTA经济、社会效果的评价体系和受损产业的补偿办法等的系统研究,更缺乏相关的制度保障等,这些问题亟待解决。     

A Classification of Dutch Manufacturing based on a Model of Innovation

Summary The paper studies the degree of homogeneity of innovative behavior in order to determine empirically an industry classification of Dutch manufacturing that can be used for policy purposes. Defining homogeneity in terms of an economic model distinguishes our classification from existing taxonomies such as those of the OECD, Pavitt and the various classifications based on a principal components analysis. We use a two-limit tobit model with sample selection, which explains the decisions by business enterprises to innovate and the impact these decisions have on the share of innovative sales. The model is estimated for eleven industries based on the Dutch Standard Industrial Classification (SBI 1993). A likelihood ratio (LR) test is then performed to test for equality of the parameters across industries. We find that Dutch manufacturing consists of three groups of industries in terms of innovative behavior, a high-tech group, a low-tech group and the industry of wood. The same pattern shows up in the three Dutch Community Innovation Surveys. The empirical part of this study has been carried out at the Centre for Research of Economic Microdata at Statistics Netherlands. The authors wish to thank Statistics Netherlands, and in particular Bert Diederen, for helping us in accessing and using the Micronoom data set. The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors. The authors also wish to thank Fran?ois Laisney, Patrick Waelbroek and participants at presentations in Maastricht, Strasbourg, Leuven and Lille for their helpful comments. The first author acknowledges financial support from METEOR.     

An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Antidumping Sunset Review Decisions

This paper is the first comprehensive analysis of the U.S. antidumping sunset review process required under WTO commitments. The econometric models study determinants of decisions by three U.S. actors: the petitioning industry, the Department of Commerce (DOC), and the International Trade Commission (ITC). Domestic industries facing potential vigorous competition seem to use sunset reviews to maintain current high domestic profits. U.S. governmental institutions use criteria broadly consistent with their legal obligations. Exports involving Chinese firms may face negative bias in the ITC process. JEL no. F1, F13     

Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime

We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the best monetary arrangement for the pegger. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42     

Industrial Policy and Technology Diffusion: Evidence from Paper Making Machinery in Indonesia

In this paper, we analyze the diffusion and adoption of paper making machinery in the Indonesian pulp and paper industry, from 1923 till 2000. We develop a machine level index of technological sophistication (mach), which measures the technological distance of each paper machine to the world technological frontier. The data reveal a pattern of rapid technological catch up. But catch up was not an industrywide phenomenon. Some modern firms installed state-of-the-art machinery, while others installed older vintages. The paper argues that industrial policy has played an important role in the speed and nature of diffusion of paper making machinery.     

试论产业政策的独立性

干预市场经济运行已经成为现代政府实现资源优化配置的重要手段,国家对经济的干预形式,一般被认为有两种:一种是宏观调控;另一种是微观规制。而产业政策是否可以并入宏观调控或微观规制,抑或它是一种独立的经济政策?目前学术界对此看法不一。文章通过分析微观规制、产业政策和宏观调控三者在实施的目的、作用的方式、作用的对象以及理论基础等方面存在的显著差别,说明了产业政策可以成为一种独立的国家干预经济的形式。     

The Effects of Central Banks’ Rate Change Patterns on Financial Market Variables

This study examines whether different patterns of change to the benchmark interest rates of central banks are associated with their contributions to variances in the forecast errors of three financial market variables: the long-term interest rate, the foreign exchange rate, and the stock market index. On average, the central bank’s interest rate accounts for approximately 20% of the variance in each variable. We find that the total range of changes is more important than the frequency of changes. The panel regression shows that the range and frequency of policy rate changes is positively associated with the volatility of long-term interest rates but no association with the volatility of stock prices and exchange rates. These results suggest that small and frequent adjustments of policy rates are desirable for reducing the volatility of interest rates. The panel VAR represents interest rate channel is a more important than exchange rate and stock price channel.