ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators with the aim to provide early signals for turning points in the euro area headline and core inflation cycles. The headline (core) ALICE leads the reference cycle by three (four) months and the lead times extend to five (nine) months based on longer-leading series. Both ALICE indicators signalled turning points in the inflation cycles ex post and also performed well in a simulated real-time exercise. Moreover, in particular the headline ALICE also appeared to be useful for quantitative forecasting of the direction and level of inflation.     

Self serving reference points in double auctions

We present a novel approach for modelling self serving bias by way of reference dependence. Bias is modelled as a systematic individual level deviation of the endogenous reference point from the expected price of a good in a two person k-double auction. We find that bias decreases the efficiency of the model, and that efficiency is decreasing in both the level of bias and reference dependence.     

Data driven rank test for the change point problem

Data driven test procedure for detection of change is introduced and its properties are studied. The new solution is max-type statistic related to data-driven rank tests for two-sample subproblems. Simulations show that the new test possesses high and stable power. The test is consistent at essentially any alternative. Asymptotic null distribution of the test is derived. The work of the first two authors has been partially supported by the grants GAČR 201/06/0186 and MSM 02160839.     

大规模突发事件应急物资调度中的车辆路径问题

研究了n台应急车辆将应急物资从应急服务中心如机场、火车站运送到m个应急需求点,最后返回到应急服务中心的车辆路径问题,并以所花费的总时间最短且各辆车花费时间尽可能均衡为目标建立了模型,给出了改进的"最近搜索法",并用算例验证了模型的有效性。     

Holocaust concentration camp memorial sites: an exploratory study into expected emotional response

This study explored Dutch people's expected intensity of emotional responses of a potential visit to a concentration camp memorial site in the Netherlands. A total of 1050 online panel members participated in a questionnaire that contained a 33-item emotion scale. Results reveal that individuals with a closeness to the Holocaust expect to feel most emotions more intensely, specifically emotions that are traditionally considered ‘positive’, such as pride, love, joy, inspiration, excitement and affection. Overall, respondents expect to feel disgust, shock, compassion and sadness the strongest. Those who look from the viewpoint of the offenders mainly expect to feel emotions that are traditionally considered ‘negative’, whereas those who took the point of view of the victims also expect a more ‘positive’ emotional reaction to the visit. Managerial implications address aspects of education, storytelling and authenticity.     

Promoting entry of high-quality workers through US immigration policy

We examine how US immigrants would be affected by applying a simple point system for admission, as Canada does. Since US immigration policy emphasizes family reunification, immigrants have lower education and earnings than natives, with unauthorized immigrants’ education below legal ones. Using American Community Survey data, and Center for Migration Studies data, which allows us to distinguish legal from unauthorized immigrants, we examine the effects of requiring immigrants to meet 2 of 3 conditions: (1) a high school or college degree, (2) being less than 40 years old and (3) working in a professional occupation, while admitting the same numbers of immigrants. This policy changes the source countries of immigrants and there are large positive effects on immigrant earnings. Immigrants’ use of government transfer programs is reduced to below natives and income inequality falls. Finally, with existing policy, immigrant earnings growth is not enough to overtake natives given immigrants’ entering earnings disadvantage. With this point system, immigrants start at a higher level and surpass natives relatively quickly.     

基于价值工程的客户订单分离点定位冲突消解

提出了一种基于价值工程理论和多目标决策算法的即时顾客化定制(IC)下客户订单分离点(CODP)定位冲突消解方法。首先分析了最优CODP定位涉及的利益相关方,从成本、定制化程度和时间等方面研究了CODP定位的影响因素;然后基于价值工程理论,提出了IC生产模式下顾客价值的表达式,将顾客价值的功能因素数量化,综合运用价值指数法和求解多目标决策问题的优化算法,构造CODP定位冲突消解问题的优化算法,并给出该算法的具体实现步骤;最后应用该算法对某企业的典型案例问题进行求解,表明了该算法的有效性。     

成都市土地资源可持续利用评价

土地资源可持续利用评价是衡量土地资源是否达到合理利用的评判标准,是评价和监测土地可持续利用的状态和程度。本文从环境、资源、经济及社会四个准则层出发,选取 21个因素作为参评因子,建立评价指标体系;运用基于时点评价法、线性比例法与熵权法进行综合测算,对成都市土地资源可持续利用进行针对性的实践研究。结果表明,成都市土地可持续利用处于一般可持续利用状态,整体态势良好。但成都市土地利用的环境保护性还有待进一步加强,注重协调耕地与社会经济发展的关系,进一步提高耕地的土地利用效益。     

出口贸易中的物流管理

物流管理是外贸企业进出口业务管理的一个重要方面,它关系到企业的经营和资信能力。本文主要对外贸企业物流系统的功能、效果、因素及控制点的设计等方面进行了初步探讨。     

国际产业资本流入与中国“刘易斯拐点”出现的关系分析

当前,国际产业资本加速向中国转移,同时"刘易斯拐点"在中国出现已经广受认可。本文从理论上论证了国际产业资本促进"刘易斯拐点"出现的作用机制,应用计量分析方法检验了国际产业资本与第一、第二产业就业的相关性,检验结果表明,国际产业资本促进了第一产业就业减少和第二产业就业增加,一定程度上解释了"刘易斯拐点"的出现可能与国际产业资本向中国加速转移有着紧密的联系。