Remittances and incumbency: Theory and evidence

By raising household income, remittances lower the marginal utility of targeted electoral transfers, thus weakening the efficacy of vote buying. Yet, remittances make individuals wealthier and believe the national economy is performing well, which is positively attributed to the incumbent. Building on these insights, I show that the confluence of these divergent channels generate a surprising result that at increasingly higher levels of dissatisfaction with the incumbent, a remittance recipient is more likely to vote for the incumbent than a non‐remittance recipient. These predictions and their underlying mechanisms are substantiated across 18 Latin American countries.     

Tourist Satisfaction and Destination Image of Vietnam's Ha Long Bay

Although considerable work has been done on destination image as a whole, far less research has investigated the differences in destination image assessments for domestic versus international visitors in developing countries. This study offers findings that illustrate the differences in perception of destination image, satisfaction attributes, and intention among domestic and international visitors to Ha Long Bay, a United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization World Heritage Site in Vietnam. The results of a survey on 650 tourists suggest that international visitors to the Ha Long Bay region have higher standards and are more critical in their evaluation of services than domestic visitors when judging this destination. Destination image is a common factor determining the level of satisfaction of both groups. Basic and augmented services were found to influence international visitors’ future intention toward the destination. This finding implies that the destination managers of Ha Long Bay need to improve current standard of augmented services to yield higher visitors’ propensity to recommend and return to the destination.     

Net Equity and Debt Flows to Emerging Market and Developing Economies in the Post-Crisis Era

We investigate the determinants of net equity and debt flows into 60 emerging and developing countries during 1986–2012, with a special focus on the period following the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC). Our results controlling for endogeneity show that net equity flows to emerging markets were mostly influenced by global risk factors, while net debt flows were affected by country-specific factors. We further distinguish the factors that were more pronounced in determining net portfolio flows to emerging markets since the GFC. The US real interest rate had significant spillover effects on net equity flows after the GFC. An increase in country’s domestic credit attracted net debt inflows before the GFC, while it was associated with net equity outflows after the GFC. We also find that capital controls moderated net debt flows since the GFC.     

From Financial Repression to External Distress: The Case of Venezuela

Recent work suggests a connection between domestic debt and external default. We examine potential linkages for Venezuela, where the evidence reveals a nexus among domestic debt, financial repression, and external vulnerability. The financial repression tax (as a share of GDP) is similar to OECD economies, in spite of higher debt ratios in the latter. The financial repression “tax rate” is higher in years of exchange controls and legislated interest rate ceilings. We document a link between domestic disequilibrium and a weakening of the net foreign asset position via private capital flight. We suggest these findings are not unique to Venezuela.     

西藏国内贸易与本地经济增长关系的计量分析

基于2006～2015年时间序列数据,利用计量经济统计方法,考察了西藏国内贸易与本地经济增长之间的关系。经研究发现,西藏国内贸易与本地经济增长的关系是长期均衡的发展关系,且西藏国内贸易是本地经济增长的原因;同时,在影响西藏经济增长的三大需求中,国内贸易的占比最大,由此说明,在促进西藏经济增长的"三驾马车"中,消费比投资、净出口更为显著。     

消费行为、产出变化与经常项目动态

国内吸收法认为,当国内需求没有完全吸收其产出时,就会通过净出口产生贸易顺差.中国持续的经常项目顺差似乎与消费需求不足有关.收入是决定居民消费需求的最基本因素之一.本文通过实证分析我国居民的消费与收入变化的关系来考察我国居民的消费需求,结合国内吸收法的思想来分析我国的经常项目动态.     

流动性过剩的调控思路研究

目前,中央银行不断采取上调存款准备金率和基准利率及发行巨额央行票据等货币政策手段控制流动性过剩,但效果并不显著。应转变思路,引导资金合理分流,努力扩大内需。     

国内生产总值的生态经济学剖析

国内生产总值(GDP)作为国民经济核算的主要方式,具有其重要性,同时也存在一定的问题,特别是在生态和环境方面。中国政府在进行十二五规划时,淡化了对GDP增长速度的要求,而强调宽容性增长,重视并着力解决民生问题,符合中国社会发展的趋势。但是GDP作为衡量国民经济发展的重要指标,今后仍将会发挥其重要作用,需要进行全面研究,并寻找改进的方式。因此,文章在文献综述的基础上,阐明了GDP产生的背景和内涵,指出了GDP在衡量社会经济发展中发挥的作用。同时,指出了GDP在衡量国家或地区社会经济综合发展方面的局限性,重点指出了生态和环境领域的问题和认识上的误区。最后,根据国内的研究情况,并结合我国具体国情,提出了一些改进和替代方面的建议。     

新疆国内游客综合满意度影响因子及发展对策分析

从旅游业各组成要素的角度,运用灰色综合关联度分析法以及满意度四分图模型对影响新疆国内游客综合满意度的主导因子及其影响力的大小进行了探讨。研究结果表明,各因子对综合满意度的影响程度存在明显差别,可分为三个层次:长途交通、景区游览的满意度与综合满意度的关联度最高,在0.9以上,是目前影响新疆国内游客综合满意度的关键因子;购物和导游是主要因子,关联度在0.8以上;而娱乐、餐饮和住宿的关联度最低,是次要因子。因此,今后应把重点放在各类交通的发展和景区的建设和提高上。处于提升区的购物和导游是目前新疆旅游业发展急待改进的因子,也是新疆国内游客满意度提高的关键所在,要加大对这两方面的投入,争取在短时间内提高服务水平,改善购物环境,以扩大国内旅游客源市场份额。     

美国在21世纪所面对的各种形势（英文）

本文分为四个章节。第一章是本论文的整体概括。简要讲述了美国的历史和现状,指出了文章的主要话题和目的。第二章和第三章是本文的主要组成部分。分析了美国在二十一世纪从国际、国内的角度,在经济、文化和政治领域所面对的挑战。第二章主要集中在美国国内在二十一世纪所面临和将要面对的挑战。因此我们将会看到面临的六个主要挑战。在第三章中,作者将从四个方面讨论美国面对国际挑战的措施。第四章是本文的结论。它将简要归纳要点,介绍了本论文的贡献和不足。