“十三五”期间我国经济——能源——环境系统变量发展预测

本文以动态可计算一般均衡模型为基础,2010年投入产出表延长表为基准数据,对“十三五”期间我国经济--能源--环境系统相关变量进行了预测。分析结果显示：“十三五”期间我国经济将实现新常态下的稳定适宜增长,GDP增速保持在65%左右,产业结构进一步优化,第三产业比重明显上升,第二产业明显下降。由于经济增长的原因,能源消费总量与碳排放总量依然较高,但能源消费结构进一步优化,碳排放强度明显降低,节能减排的形势依然比较严峻。     

Revisiting the role of the environment in the capabilities–financial performance relationship: A meta‐analysis

Within the capabilities‐based view of the firm, there is debate about the relative importance of ordinary and dynamic capabilities for firm performance and about the extent to which their performance effects are contingent on environmental conditions. We meta‐analyze 115 studies to investigate the relationship between both ordinary and dynamic capabilities and the financial performance of firms in relatively stable versus changing environments. The results suggest that the performance effects of both types of capabilities are positive and similar in magnitude. Environmental dynamism reinforces the effects of both ordinary and dynamic capabilities. Furthermore, the two types of capabilities are closely associated. Our findings provide support for a moderate capabilities‐based view of the firm, rather than one that considers dynamic capabilities as superior to ordinary ones. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolving densities in continuous strategy games through particle simulations

Many cases of strategic interaction between agents involve a continuous set of choices. It is natural to model these problems as continuous space games. Consequently, the population of agents playing the game will be represented with a density function defined over the continuous set of strategy choices. Simulating evolutionary dynamics on continuous strategy spaces is a challenging problem. The classic approach of discretizing the strategy space is ineffective for multidimensional strategy spaces. We present a principled approach to simulation of adaptive dynamics in continuous space games using sequential Monte Carlo methods. Sequential Monte Carlo methods use a set of weighted random samples, also named particles to represent density functions over multidimensional spaces. Sequential Monte Carlo methods provide computationally efficient ways of computing the evolution of probability density functions. We employ resampling and smoothing steps to prevent particle degeneration problem associated with particle estimates. The resulting algorithm can be interpreted as an agent based simulation with elements of natural selection, regression to mean and mutation. We illustrate the performance of the proposed simulation technique using two examples: continuous version of the repeated prisoner dilemma game and evolution of bidding functions in first-price closed-bid auctions.     

在机床结构有限元法建模中的动态力学的研究与应用

本文对机床结合面特性进行了简单分析,重点对机床结构有限元动态分析的基本理论和有限动力学软件和模型进行了分析研究。     

Traffic density,congestion externalities,and urbanization in China

ABSTRACT

Although there is an abundant regional literature analyzing traffic congestion, only a few studies have explored extending such analysis with spatial effects. This study uses a dynamic spatial Durbin model and city-level panel data for the period 2003–14 to investigate the spatial spillover effects of traffic congestion on urbanization in China. The results show that there is an inverted ‘U’-shaped relationship between urbanization and traffic density in local and neighbouring cities, and congestion effects have appeared. In the short and long run, the spatial effects of traffic congestion have become an important force restricting the effective promotion of urbanization in China.     

Local Democracy Ltd

Abstract

A number of European countries have witnessed a proliferation of local government enterprises in recent years. Norwegian local councillors are seemingly particularly exposed to this ‘enterprise fever’. Our article explores local governments' approaches to the political control of such companies. We observe a reluctance to intervene directly in the affairs of an enterprise, but there is a last-resort preparedness to take more resolute action. Lastly, in contrast to what the prototypical agency model postulates, we find that those who attach strong aspirations of increased capacity to the establishment of companies appear to lack trust in the same companies' performance capability.     

Explaining Variance in Policy Evaluation Regularity. The Case of the Flemish Public Sector

Abstract

The objective of the article is to identify the conditions that best explain organizational variance in policy evaluation regularity. Relying on the innovative Most Similar Different Outcome/Most Different Similar Outcome technique, we examine the explanatory ability of a range of organizational attributes applied to eighteen Flemish public sector organizations (Belgium). The conditions that relate to the source of evaluation demand, in its broadest sense, are of key importance. We refer to the role of the sector minister and other organizations in demanding evaluations, as well as to the media and parliamentary attention and the influence of EU evaluation clauses.     

城市地下空间开发利用容量评估指标体系的研究

地下空间是城市开发的重要自然资源,城市地下空间开发利用容量评估的目的旨在把握城市所具有的地下空间可开发利用的总量和潜力,建立科学的评估指标体系是地下空间开发利用容量评估的基础.本文分析了城市地下空间开发利用容量的主要影响因素,提出了城市地下空间开发利用容量评估指标体系构建的原则.基于层次分析法建立了城市地下空间开发利用容量评估的层次结构模型,依据该层次结构模型构造了各层次判断矩阵,并进行了层次单排序、层次总排序及其一致性检验.经研究分析得到:地面空间类型、受已开发地下空间的影响程度、地震烈度、滑坡及崩塌、对工程有影响的地下水层数、受影响的地下水赋存类型及活断层等是城市地下空间开发利用容量评估的主要指标.     

水泥土搅拌桩复合地基承载力的灰色预测

详细阐述灰色模型的建立及调整过程,利用复合地基沉降实测数据,根据灰色系统理论,建立(1,1)模型,可模拟复合地基的P~s曲线,预测地基沉降的发展趋势,分析水泥土搅拌桩复合地基的承载性能。