Co‐evolved genetic programs for stock market trading

The profitability of trading rules evolved by three different optimised genetic programs, namely a single population genetic program (GP), a co‐operative co‐evolved GP, and a competitive co‐evolved GP is compared. Profitability is determined by trading thirteen listed shares on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) over a period of April 2003 to June 2008. An empirical study presented here shows that GPs can generate profitable trading rules across a variety of industries and market conditions. The results show that the co‐operative co‐evolved GP generates trading rules perform significantly worse than a single population GP and a competitively co‐evolved GP. The results also show that a competitive co‐evolved GP and the single population GP produce similar trading rules. The profits returned by the evolved trading rules are compared to the profit returned by the buy‐and‐hold trading strategy. The evolved trading rules significantly outperform the buy‐and‐hold strategy when the market trends downwards. No significant difference is identified among the buy‐and‐hold strategy, the competitive co‐evolved GP, and single population GP when the market trends upwards.     

Effectiveness of sequences of classroom training for welfare recipients: what works best in West Germany?

Sequences of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) may be part of an intensified activation strategy targeting hard-to-place unemployed individuals. Such sequences are very common among welfare recipients in Germany, but most studies only evaluate either single ALMPs or unemployed individuals’ first ALMP. I analyse the effects of different sequences of classroom training for West German men and women on different labour market outcomes. Using rich administrative data and a dynamic causal model, I can control for dynamic selection problems that occur during a sequence. The results show that two classroom trainings are more effective than two periods of welfare receipt in helping welfare recipients find regular employment, especially among West German women. Moreover, immediately assigning individuals to classroom training is more effective than waiting and assigning them to classroom training in the second period. However, in some cases, avoiding participation in multiple programmes is preferable.

Abbreviations: ALMP, active labour market programme; CIA, Conditional Independence Assumption; CSR, Common Support Requirement; DATET, dynamic average treatment effect on the treated; IEB, Integrated Employment Biographies; IPW, inverse probability weighting; LHG, UBII-Receipt History (Leistungshistorik Grundsicherung); MSB, mean standardized absolute bias; SUTVA, Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption; UBII, unemployment benefit II; UBI, unemployment benefit I; WDCIA, Weak Dynamic Conditional Independence Assumption     

Subsidiary coopetition competence: Navigating subsidiary evolution in the multinational corporation

This paper examines the engagement of subsidiaries in coopetition, the simultaneous pursuit of competitive and cooperative behavior, in subsidiary role development. Drawing on twelve detailed case studies, we uncover how framing of the mandate situation shapes subsidiary actions to influence role development, thereby leading to competitive and cooperative subsidiary behavior. This paper advances our understanding of coopetition in MNCs by developing the concept of subsidiary coopetition competence and extends theory on subsidiary evolution.     

生育、劳动人口福利与机制设计

通过建立动态优化模型，进行模拟发现：在没有配套性政策下按照政策生育会降低劳动人 口的福利水平。这意味着，如果自愿进行生育，全面二孩政策下民众很可能不会有效地响应政策。 进一步模拟发现：养老制度转轨和降低生育成本的政策，如果与生育政策调整同时进行，可以增 加社会资源，补偿生育对劳动人口福利的挤占，但是政策具有生育效应的关键在于转轨带来社会 资源增量须用于生育支持，降低家庭生育成本的关键在于提高社会照看与提供孩子产品和服务企 业的社会生产率。政策启示在于，尽快出台与生育政策配套性的措施，特别是生育支持性政策。     

A panel data-based analysis of factors influencing market demand for Chinese outbound tourism

This paper presents data on the top 50 outbound destinations for Chinese tourists from 2002 to 2013. The total number of Chinese tourists traveling to these 50 destinations accounts for 95.38% of outbound travelers from China. We built a dynamic panel data model to measure factors that influence market demand for Chinese outbound tourism. The results show that economic variables such as income, tourism prices, and exchange rates have a significant influence on outbound tourism volume. The effect of bilateral goods trade and leisure time significantly differ between the full sample and the two subsamples, whereas political stability of the destinations and special incidents in China have no significant impact on demand for outbound tourism. Based on these findings, this study proposes strategies to strengthen the management of China’s outbound tourism market.     

Endogeneity and the Dynamics of Voluntary Disclosure Quality: Is there Really an Effect on the Cost of Equity Capital?*

Research on the effects of voluntary disclosure quality on the cost of equity capital is often plagued by endogeneity concerns. In this paper, I use a dynamic panel system GMM estimator, which provides internal instruments from the firm's history that directly address endogeneity arising from unobserved heterogeneity and simultaneity. By using hand-collected voluntary disclosure scores for firms listed in the Swiss stock exchange, I examine the dynamic relation between voluntary disclosure quality and the cost of equity capital in a panel over a period of 10 years. The results suggest that the relation between voluntary disclosure quality and the cost of equity capital becomes insignificant after controlling adequately for potential dynamic endogeneity, simultaneity, and unobserved heterogeneity.     

Innovation as a driver of eco‐innovation in the firm: An approach from the dynamic capabilities theory

The aim of this study is to investigate how innovative capabilities of the firm affect eco‐innovation from a dynamic capability lens. We build on OECD research to conceptualise eco‐innovation as the capacity with which firms modify, redesign, and create products, processes, procedures, and organisations in order to reduce environmental impact. We propose and test the temporal and relational properties of eco‐innovation as a capability. We demonstrate that eco‐innovation possesses two properties of innovative capabilities, namely, persistence over time and interrelation with other innovations. We thus shed new light on the mechanism through which firms engage in eco‐innovation. We also provide empirical evidence to the debate on the relationship between the “normal” innovation (technological or nontechnological) and eco‐innovation. We show that eco‐innovation and innovation are interrelated both simultaneously and sequentially. Moreover, we show that innovation capabilities and eco‐innovation are not only related, but they also have a complementary nature, which facilitates the development of future eco‐innovation.     

The Relationship between Interest Rates and Inflation: Examining the Fisher Effect in China

This study revisits the Fisher effect using a different empirical method that considers a potential nonlinear relationship between interest rates (treasury bond rates) and inflation in China. The rising uncertainty and asymmetric information in financial markets between bond holders and bond issuers suggest such a potential nonlinear relationship. To this aim, we apply Shin et al.’s (2014) nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model with asymmetric dynamic multipliers for the sample period 2002M7–2018M4. The empirical findings reveal symmetric and asymmetric partial Fisher effects for all sample bond rates in China. Furthermore, we find that 20-year bond rates experience the lowest partial Fisher effect.     

带阻尼器拉索结构的索力识别研究

为解决带多个阻尼器索结构的索力识别问题,依据动力学相关理论,建立带3个减振器的拉索-减振器动力学模型,推导其频率方程,构造相应的无量纲参数并进行参数分析.结果表明:随着减振器支撑刚度的增加,无量纲振动频率逐渐增大,但这种增大趋势随支撑刚度的继续增加而趋于平缓;随着减振器安装距离的增加,无量纲振动频率逐渐增大,且这种趋势接近线性变化.最后利用有限元分析软件ANSYS并分别采用LINK单元与BEAM单元对其结论进行验证.     

澳大利亚水敏城市设计(WSUD)演进及 对海绵城市建设的启示

海绵城市建设需要多层面、全方位综合推进，针对目前中国海绵城市建设中面临的问题，通过解析澳大利亚城市水管理目标的转型及水敏城市设计(WSUD)演进过程，将水敏城市设计演进分为萌芽、产生、示范及应用4个阶段，进而分析其演进中的成功经验与前沿趋势，为我国当前海绵城市建设与低影响开发景观规划设计以启示与借鉴。认为我国海绵城市建设需要从行政与制度建设、设计科学依据、项目监测与评价、项目示范推广，以及处置序列合理组织5个方面进行改进与突破，从而真正实现海绵城市的建设目标。