Role of TFP in China's Growth*

This paper uses the dual approach to growth accounting to examine the role of total factor productivity (TFP) in recent Chinese growth. Most previous growth accounting studies on China have followed the primal approach, which depends heavily on the national income accounts. Unfortunately, despite efforts to rectify them, Chinese national income accounts data continue to have problems that affect primal approach growth accounting results. The dual approach, in contrast, allows independent price information to play a role. Recent research has focused on the following two questions: (i) How significant has TFP's role been in post‐reform Chinese growth? (ii) Has TFP growth rate slowed down in more recent years? This paper finds that: (i) the TFP growth rate for mainland China computed using the dual approach also proves high; and (ii) there has been some slowdown in TFP growth rate in recent years.     

Real Exchange Rate in China：A Long-run Perspective

This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate from a long‐run viewpoint. Whether China's rapid economic growth brought about real exchange rate appreciation between 1975 and 2002 is empirically examined, based on a supply‐side model, the Balassa—Semuelson Hypothesis (BSH). The same test is conducted on Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. Our result indicates that the BSH only exists where the industrial structure has been upgraded and the economy has been successfully transformed from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy. Interestingly, China, among those where the BSH does not present, appears to be upgrading its industrial and trade structure. We then try to answer the question of why past rapid growth has no significant relationship with the RMB real exchange rate and what factors are underlying the trend of the RMB real exchange rate. We expect an appreciating trend of RMB real exchange rate in the foreseeable future, presuming that China's industrial upgrading process continues and the factors pertaining to the BSH's prediction, such as rise of wage rates in both tradables and nontradables, become more significant. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng)     

全面落实科学发展观 努力建设创新型行业 促进保险业又快又好地发展

2005年，在党中央国务院的正确领导下，保险业以邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想为指导，坚持以科学发展观为统领，以优化发展结构、转换经营机制和转变增长方式为切入点，保险业务平稳健康发展。2005年全年保费收入4927.3亿元，同比增长14％；保险公司总资产15225．9亿元，比年初增加3240．1亿元。当前，国际国内形势的发展变化要求保险业必须又快又好地发展，经济社会发展为保险业发展提供了广阔空间。今后应着力解决好速度、效益、诚信和规范经营问题，切实增强自主创新能力，积极防范化解风险，努力加强行业基础建设，促进保险业稳定持续健康快速发展，更好地为全面建设小康社会和构建社会主义和谐社会服务。     

行政区划窠臼内的中国经济区划

传统行政区划主要考虑的是政治的因素。改革开放以来,这些行政区的经济功能十分突出和明显,由此产生了一些问题。经济全球化的过程中,经济区域发展要求突破行政区划的束缚,走出一条区域联合之路。立足行政区划,并且超越行政区划是经济发展的可行之路。     

能源-经济-环境复杂系统持续协调发展评价指标体系与方法研究——以山东省为例

详细分析影响能源、经济、环境的各种因素的基础上,从能源系统、经济系统与环境系统三个方面,构建了能源-经济-环境(3E)复杂系统持续协调发展评价指标体系,并将协调度发展水平划分为七个等级。建立了分层模糊动态的评价方法,并利用该方法对山东省的能源、经济与环境的协调发展进行了综合评价,分析了影响协调度发展的主要因素,及其应采取的主要措施。     

产业集群与珠三角地区经济发展

产业集群作为区域经济发展理论的创新，在促进区域经济发展的过程中具有提高区域竞争力，带动整个区域经济发展的内在机理。本文以珠三角为例分析了以产业链为纽带构筑产业集群的经济框架，在此基础上提出了珠三角地区产业集群培育和发展的政策建议。     

基于建立估价模型的企业并购绩效评价研究

企业并购绩效可借助一些方法加以评价,本文重点研究建立估价模型评价并购绩效。本文首先深入研究建立估价模型评价企业并购绩效的基本原理；在此基础上,通过对具体案例并购绩效实证研究进一步验证文中观点。本文认为建立估价模型、借助于EVA评价企业并购绩效是一种比较理想的方法。     

保险业增长预测中数量经济模型的应用研究

科学合理地预测保险业的发展状况，对于明确保险业未来的总体发展目标和战略重点。促进保险业持续健康发展，具有十分重大的意义。本文以内蒙古自治区保险业为例，通过对2006年-2010年内蒙古自治区保费收入的增长预测，提出了综合运用多元线性回归模型和霍尔特指数平滑法进行保险增长预测的预测方法。与传统预测方法相比，它能更好地保证保险增长预测的精确度。