经济周期定期方法与研究进展

经济波动一直是宏观经济分析与预测中的经典问题,而经济周期拐点的及时识别对政府前瞻性经济政策的制定和企业投资经营战略的调整具有重要意义。鉴于我国目前尚没有权威机构对经济周期进行实时监测和发布,因而在划分经济周期和拐点识别时,往往局限于一种方法,不同方法有效性的比较缺乏一个基准参考。文章对国内外研究经济周期及其周期拐点定期的方法进行梳理和分析,依据经济周期定期方法的研究脉络,对主流的方法进行评述,并对我国经济周期定期进行展望,希望能在分析中国宏观经济波动特征和经济走势预测方面提供一些方法论参考和借鉴。     

Repeated Dichotomous Choice Formats for Elicitation of Willingness to Pay: Simultaneous Estimation and Anchoring Effect

Repeated dichotomous choice contingent valuation data are generated from responses to a succession of binary questions regarding alternative prices for an environmental good. In this paper we propose a simultaneous equation model that allows for endogeneity and error correlation across the responses at each stage of the bidding process. The model allows us to study the evolution of anchoring effects after the second dichotomous choice question. Estimation involves the Bayesian techniques of Gibbs sampling and data augmentation, and the application focuses on the preservation value of a natural area. The results for a data set involving up to four successive dichotomous choice questions show that restricted multiple-bounded models are rejected by the data with the general model. In addition, willingness to pay tends to stabilize after the second stage in the elicitation process for the general unrestricted model. When taking anchoring effects into consideration, it is revealed that individuals’ responses in the latter stages are influenced by the sequence of bid prices offered in earlier questions. Nevertheless, they do not have a significant effect on welfare estimates.      

Semi-parametric discrete choice measures of willingness to pay

A semi-parametric discrete choice method is proposed to recover welfare measures from individual choice data. The proposed method is compared with the traditional binary choice models in an application to measure benefits of recreation trips.     

Subsampling the distribution of diverging statistics with applications to finance

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution of statistics diverging at either known or unknown rates when the underlying time series is strictly stationary and strong mixing. Based on our results we provide a detailed discussion of how to estimate extreme order statistics with dependent data and present two applications to assessing financial market risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk and provides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizing Safety First portfolio selection.     

A measure of regional influence with the analytic network process

The metropolitan region is commonly defined by a socio-spatial network of urban nodes that are linked in territory and function. Such a network is differentiated by size and dominance of the linked nodes, characterized by physical or virtual flows of a wide-ranging variety. The analytic network process (ANP) is a multi-criteria analytic method that measures the influence or dominance of the nodes in a network with feedback. We illustrate how ANP determines county rank as a measure of influence in a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) defined by its interrelated socio-economic and spatial elements qualitatively and quantitatively. We compare the ANP results to similar measures of regional influence in the literature.     

线性代数双语教学模式实现途径研究

分析了线性代数双语教学的必要性与可行性,探讨了适合我校的教学模式,给出了教学目标和评价方法。     

物流学课程设计和教学方法探讨

《物流学》是物流管理专业的核心课程,文中简要介绍了《物流学》课程的设置情况,探讨了该课程的性质和目的、教学目标和教学方法,最后提出改进的建议。     

浅谈高职院校文艺类“高等数学”教学改革

针对目前高职院校高等数学的教学现状,结合国家示范高职课程改革的需要,借助张景中院士开发的"Z+Z"数学教学软件,阐述了高职院校文艺类学生进行高等数学教育的必要性,就如何及时转变教学理念、改变教育方法、以及如何因地制宜降低教学要求,加强高等数学教材的建设等方面进行了深入分析,并且提出了一个新的数学教学模式。     

《旅游法规》教学方法探析

旅游法规课程对中职导游专业的学生有较大的学习难度,往往成为学生通过导游人员资格考试的"拦路虎"。本文探究了几种行之有效的教学方法:案例教学法、背诵教学法、理论联系实际教学法,以提高学生的学习兴趣。     

满足学生的心理诉求,探索“思法”课教学改革的新途径

三年制高职学生对"思法"课存在一些错误或偏颇的认识,要提高这门课的教学效果,必须从学生的心理诉求出发,在教学内容的选择、教学资料的搜集、教学方法的改进、师生思想情感的交流、学生的心理辅导等方面探索"思法"课教学改革的新途径,以激发学生的学习兴趣,提高教学效果。