Financial market and housing wealth effects on consumption: a permanent income approach

The objective of this study is to examine the financial market and housing wealth effects on consumption. Housing has the dual functions as both a commodity yielding a flow of housing services and an investment asset yielding a flow of capital income. With the construction of an empirical framework based on the vector autoregression approach, the findings from this study suggest that a rise in housing price has both a positive wealth effect and a negative price effect on consumption. While the positive wealth effect is caused by an increase in capital income, the negative price effect is caused by an increase in the cost of housing services. In addition, the housing market wealth effect increases, at the expense of the price effect, with the level of housing-market leverage. These findings imply that the government policy of land supply aiming to stimulate the economy should strike a balance between the possible wealth and price effects of the housing market.     

空乘专业学生急救实训方法

急救在空中乘务工作中是非常重要的一项技术,它直接关系到飞行安全和旅客的安全。根据当前空乘专业学生急救教学的实际以及就业反馈情况,分析急救实训教学改革的必要性,通过研究急救实训教学中培养和提高空乘专业学生急救能力的可行性实训方法,对空乘专业学生核心能力培养提供积极的探索。     

生态文明建设要走在最前列——关于长沙实施绿色发展崛起战略的思考

强化生态文明理念是长沙发展加快转型的主要动力。强力推动绿色发展是长沙发展加快转型的主要目标。加强生态环境建设,是长沙发展加快转型的主要路径。     

住房抵押贷款的违约风险分析

本文运用期权数值方法分析住房抵押贷款借款者的违约行为,主要是分析抵押贷款违约期权的最优实施边界。这使得我们能够解释哪些房价和利率组合会引发借款者违约以及未来的违约概率。我们发现导致违约的房产价格高度依赖于同期市场利率,而且违约与贷款类型高度相关。我们考察了次优出售和再融资的情形,还考察了借款者面临违约声誉损失的情形,结果表明期权数值方法是稳健可靠的。本文的分析还使我们对美国次贷危机有更为客观理性的认识。     

The M4 Competition: Results,findings, conclusion and way forward

The M4 competition is the continuation of three previous competitions started more than 45 years ago whose purpose was to learn how to improve forecasting accuracy, and how such learning can be applied to advance the theory and practice of forecasting. The purpose of M4 was to replicate the results of the previous ones and extend them into three directions: First significantly increase the number of series, second include Machine Learning (ML) forecasting methods, and third evaluate both point forecasts and prediction intervals. The five major findings of the M4 Competitions are: 1. Out Of the 17 most accurate methods, 12 were “combinations” of mostly statistical approaches. 2. The biggest surprise was a “hybrid” approach that utilized both statistical and ML features. This method’s average sMAPE was close to 10% more accurate than the combination benchmark used to compare the submitted methods. 3. The second most accurate method was a combination of seven statistical methods and one ML one, with the weights for the averaging being calculated by a ML algorithm that was trained to minimize the forecasting. 4. The two most accurate methods also achieved an amazing success in specifying the 95% prediction intervals correctly. 5. The six pure ML methods performed poorly, with none of them being more accurate than the combination benchmark and only one being more accurate than Naïve2. This paper presents some initial results of M4, its major findings and a logical conclusion. Finally, it outlines what the authors consider to be the way forward for the field of forecasting.     

企业大学的信息化建设

信息化建设工作是一项与实际应用紧密联系的系统工程,对企业大学而言,信息化建设不仅是表面上的设备和线路等硬件建设,更重要的是一种软实力建设,是一种工作方法、工作水平、工作能力的体现。信息化建设加强了,就能为全校不同权限的人员提供快捷的平台和工具,随时随地的积累教学和业务资源、获取各种数据信息,并以资源和数据为基础加强信息管理,使速度和有效性得到高度保障。     

Merit and Evaluation Models for Managers in the National Health System： An Empirical Study

The national health system （NHS） complexity increase requires a review of the managerial human resources evaluation and recruiting methods, considering that nowadays doctors need to improve not just their clinical capabilities, but also managerial competences. At this end it is important to develop performances control models and to identify appropriate results indicators, with the aim of introducing an effective doctors selection system for managerial roles. The paper considers the Italian situation and tests the current evaluation and selection methods, by analysing the literature and the existing legislation and by interviewing experts. Moreover, in order to reach an innovative model, complex organizations have been taken into account as benchmarks. Three different categories of experts have been interviewed and texted： national health care organizations managers, companies managers, and business consultants. The 137 interviewed experts have been asked about four main questions concerning the evaluation for hiring managers as chief medical director, department director, and head of complex units. The conducted research suggests four different options in order to evaluate and to select heads of complex unit for the most strategic roles. By consequence, the analysis shows that required characteristics must be managerial attitudes as well as clinical capabilities.     

“室内设计原理”课程的教学改革探讨

＂室内设计原理＂课程是室内设计方向的主干课程之一,在专业课程教学中占有重要的地位。针对＂室内设计原理＂课程的教学现状及存在的问题,提出从教学方法、教学手段及考核评价机制入手对＂室内设计原理＂课程教学改革进行探讨,以期成为室内设计方向其他专业课程教学改革的重要切入点。     

有效供给不足抑制中国消费需求——从长短期消费函数看消费不足的问题

2005年是中国经济改革的关键一年,但目前宏观经济中出现了GDP增速减缓和消费需求疲软的突出矛盾。如何解决这一矛盾?相关文献通常在凯恩斯短期消费函数的基础上,认为消费拖累了GDP增长,并建议实施提高消费倾向、刺激消费需求的宏观消费管理政策。文章通过长期消费函数分析后发现是有效供给不足压抑了消费。因此,文章建议从加强供给管理入手,为社会提供更多的有效供给才是化解宏观经济矛盾的战略选择。     

儒家“礼乐刑政”和谐治国方略及其启示

儒家"礼乐刑政,综合为治"的治国方略,为我国古代封建王朝的长治久安发挥了重要的作用。"礼治"、"乐治"、"刑治"和"政治"各具特色,蕴含着丰富的和谐智慧,为我们提供了关于道德、文化艺术、法律及行政管理等方面建设的具体经验。"综合为治"则彰显四大方略融通并举,共促和谐治世之效,对我们今天构建和谐社会具有借鉴意义。