河北省人才集聚政策实证分析

人才作用的发挥和人才政策的落实紧密相关。论文对河北省人才政策进行分析,结合现场访谈和调查问卷数据的收集,实证研究了河北省近三年人才政策对人才集聚的效果,结果显示,不同类型人才政策对人才集聚均产生影响,但影响程度各异。人才对人才管理政策、人才激励政策较为关注,而人才吸引政策和人才发展保障政策则产生较小影响。最后提出了河北省进一步完善政策实现区域人才集聚的对策建议。     

阿里巴巴并购饿了么的动因和财务风险分析

在经济全球化的背景下,为扩大企业经营规模,并购成为企业很好的选择。论文以阿里巴巴收购饿了么为例,研究阿里巴巴收购饿了么的动因,分析并购为阿里巴巴这个典型的互联网企业带来的财务风险,并为互联网企业的并购提供宝贵的建议。     

Governance or reputation? Flexible tax enforcement and excess goodwill: Evidence from the taxpaying credit rating system in China

This study investigates the effect of flexible tax enforcement on firms’ excess goodwill using unique manually collected data on taxpaying credit rating in China from 2014 to 2021. We document that A-rated taxpayer firms have less excess goodwill; A-rated firms reduce excess goodwill by 0.005 vis-a-vis non-A-rated firms, which accounts for 100% of the mean value of excess goodwill. This finding holds after multiple robustness tests and an endogeneity analysis. Moreover, this negative effect is more pronounced in firms with low information transparency, that are non-state-owned and that are located in regions with low tax enforcement intensity. The channel test results suggest that taxpaying credit rating system as flexible tax enforcement reduces firms’ excess goodwill through a reputation-based effect and not a governance-based effect. This study reveals that the taxpaying credit rating system in China as flexible tax enforcement can bring halo effect to A rating firms, thereby limiting irrational M&As and breaking goodwill bubble.     

数字经济对我国碳排放的影响研究

基于2013-2020年的30个省份数据构建面板数据模型,从碳排放总量和碳排放强度两个视角研究数字经济发展对区域碳排放的影响。研究发现：数字经济的发展有效地降低了人均碳排放量、碳排放增量与碳排放增速,数字经济与碳排放强度之间存在倒“U”形关系,数字经济与碳排放强度、边际碳排放强度的关系呈现区域性特征,在省域层面数字经济对边际碳排放强度的影响不存在明显的空间效应,数字经济对碳排放增长率的影响存在基于产业结构优化、人口集聚、城镇化的遮掩效应。     

美联储前瞻性指引对新兴市场国家的溢出效应研究

基于前瞻性指引溢出效应的相关理论,选取17个代表性新兴市场国家为研究对象,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型实证分析美联储前瞻性指引对新兴市场国家的溢出效应.结果表明:美联储前瞻性指引在短期内对新兴市场国家金融市场具有一定的冲击,在长期内对新兴市场国家经济增长存在滞后的正向作用.新兴市场国家应采取应对策略,做好风险识别和预警,加强预期管理,增强货币政策协调和合作,有效防范和化解外溢影响.     

Endogenous fluctuations in unionized economies with productive externalities

Summary. We discuss the effects of unions on steady-state multiplicity and welfare, and on the existence of endogenous fluctuations. We consider an OG economy with productive capital externalities and we focus on underemployment equilibria. We find that for wide regions in the parameter space, including an arbitrarily small degree of externalities and a Cobb-Douglas technology, unions increase steady state employment and welfare, and local indeterminacy (sunspots) emerges. Moreover with a CES technology multiplicity of steady states is only possible in the presence of unions. Our results also show that the role of unions in shaping local dynamics and bifurcations depends on technology (externalities and factors substitutability).Received: 16 January 2002, Revised: 18 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: E32, J51, D60, D62. Correspondence to: Leonor ModestoThis paper is a much revised version of our former working paper Unions, Increasing Returns and Endogenous Fluctuations. Financial support from Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia under the POCTI, is gratefuly acknowledged.     

Central Bank's interventions and the Fisher hypothesis: a threshold cointegration investigation

The long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation is examined, allowing for structural breaks and asymmetric mean reversion. From a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) test applied to the residuals of the cointegration relationship (while allowing for both a break in the mean of the long-run equation and a smooth regime-transition), there is strong evidence for non-linear mean reversion properties for the real interest rates of the US Treasury Bill market. This suggests asymmetric changes to inflation shocks in the Central Bank's reaction function. The existence of different regimes is consistent with some interpretations of the monetary policies run by the Fed, such as credibility and opportunism.     

Evaluating Projects and Assessing Sustainable Development in Imperfect Economies

We are interested in three related questions:(1) How should accounting prices be estimated?(2) How should we evaluate policy change in animperfect economy? (3) How can we check whetherintergenerational well-being will be sustainedalong a projected economic programme? We do notpresume that the economy is convex, nor do weassume that the government optimizes on behalfof its citizens. We show that the same set ofaccounting prices should be used both forpolicy evaluation and for assessing whether ornot intergenerational welfare along a giveneconomic path will be sustained. We also showthat a comprehensive measure of wealth,computed in terms of the accounting prices, canbe used as an index for problems (2) and (3)above. The remainder of the paper is concernedwith rules for estimating the accounting pricesof several specific environmental naturalresources, transacted in a few well knowneconomic institutions.     

A New Approach to Random Utility Modeling using the Dirichlet Multinomial Distribution

In this paper we introduce a new econometricapproach to analyzing recreational site choicedata, the Dirichlet multinomial model. Thismodel, which nests the standard conditionalmultinomial logit model, can accommodateover-dispersed data and may provide moreefficient estimators of coefficients andconsequent welfare measures than the standardconditional logit model, which is so widelyused in the Random Utility Model approach torecreation demand. We illustrate thisDirichlet approach using a data set of rockclimbers in Scotland, and study the impacts onper-trip consumers surplus of alternativemanagement strategies for popular rock climbingsites. Results show that the Dirichletmultinomial approach produces coefficient andwelfare estimates having smaller samplingvariability in this case. We also compareclassical welfare measures with their posteriorequivalents, which allow for welfare changes tobe dis-aggregated.     

科研开发与经济增长——兼论科研开发的溢出效应

经济划分为科研部门和非科研部门，科研开发对经济增长的作用及科研对非科研部门具有外溢效应。1999-2003年30个省市自治区的面板数据表明，科研开发对经济增长具有较大的拉动作用，同时科研开发部门对其他部门的外溢作用明显为正。