Fundamentals and devaluation expectations in target zones: Some new evidence from the ERM

The credibility of exchange rate target zones for four EMS countries for the period March 1979-September 1992 is examined. Existing methods by Svensson, Edin and Vredin, typically applied to data from the Nordic countries, are considered. On balance, the method suggested by Edin and Vredin provides somewhat better estimates of devaluation probabilities than either of Svensson's methods. While all methods produce reasonably good estimates of the expected size of devaluations, they did not predict the September 1992 EMS crisis. However, we find that electoral and other institutional variables improve estimates of devaluation expectations.     

中国高新区合作联动创新网络体系建设研究

创新驱动是高新区和中国经济社会发展的重要战略。高新区创新驱动战略的实施关键在于构建科学的合作联动创新网络体系。面对现实存在的自主创新能力不强、整合与优化创新资源能力不足等困境,高新区应进一步完善创新资源流通渠道和制度安排,推进创新资源互补与高效对接;建立健全高新区创新网络合作联动一体化机制;构建以产业集群为核心的创新链条,通过技术需求和服务需求对接增强创新网络的有效性。     

我国四大经济区能源效率差异及其影响因素分析——基于单阶段随机前沿模型

运用单阶段随机前沿方法,对2001-2012年我国四大经济区能源效率及其影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明,四大经济区在样本期内的能源效率呈逐步上升趋势,2001-2005上升水平较缓,自2006年起效率上升速度加快,表明"十一五"时期节能减耗政策效果明显;能源效率总体较低,有很大的提升空间,呈现出东高西低的典型区域分布特征。对非效率因素的整体分析表明能源效率同能源投资、引进外资间为正相关,与产业结构、能源消费结构和能源禀赋间呈负相关关系。     

黑龙江省地质遗迹与自然保护区的开发保护

黑龙江省地城辽阔，地质遗迹丰富多彩，还有一些森林、沼泽、草原、水泉、湖泊、岛的、自然风景等具有特殊保护意义。本文论述了黑龙江省地质遗迹和自然保护区的基本情况，分析了省内在地质遗迹与自然保护区开发利用中存在的一系列问题，提出了保护措施和对策。     

四川省高新区管理体制机制改革研究

四川省高新区在支撑科技创新、推动区域经济社会发展上发挥了重要作用.随着市场经济的发展,高新区肩负新的使命,在推动高新区高质量发展的过程中,管理体制机制问题逐步显露,成了四川省高新区普遍面临和亟须解决的突出问题.通过分析新形势下四川省高新区管理体制机制现状,探讨其存在的问题和原因,包括社会事务多、审批权限少、管理制度传统、创新性不突出等,提出做好顶层设计、推进权力下放、改革人事制度、运用现代信息技术提升管理能力和效率等管理体制机制改革的建议.     

成都高新区高新技术企业知识型人才流动问题研究

知识型人才是高新区高新技术企业的核心要素,是各高新技术企业争夺的对象。高新技术企业知识型人才流动日益频繁,如何降低知识型人才流失的风险成为高新技术企业迫切需要解决的问题。探究了成都高新区高新技术企业知识型人才流动中存在的问题,并结合成都高新区经济发展情况,提出促进成都高新区高新技术企业知识型人才合理流动的对策。     

ZONE‐TARGETING MONETARY POLICY PREFERENCES AND FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS: A FLEXIBLE NON‐LINEAR POLICY REACTION FUNCTION OF THE SARB MONETARY POLICY

We estimate a flexible model of the monetary policy reaction function of the South African Reserve Bank based on a representation of the policymaker's preferences that capture asymmetries and zone‐targeting behaviours. We augment the analysis to allow for responses to financial market conditions over and above inflation and output stabilisation to address the current debate on the importance of financial asset prices in monetary policy decision making. The empirical results show that the monetary authorities' response to inflation is zone symmetric. Secondly, the monetary authorities' response to output is asymmetric with increased reaction during business cycle downturns relative to upturns. Thirdly, the monetary authorities pay close attention to the financial conditions index by placing an equal weight on financial market booms and recessions.     

Failure to Expand? Socio-Technical Practices and Moral Judgement in Markets for Biodiversity Offsets

Markets have become an important form of governance in the neoliberal era. The ideology of markets as the most efficient form of organising economic activity has led to the expansion of their usage, both in terms of what is governed by the market, but also in terms of the spaces in which the practices of a given market apply. However, there have been important challenges to market expansion, particularly on political and ethical grounds. This paper analyses how the socio-technical practices of market expansion can be affected by political contestation and individual moral judgements. This is analysed in the context of two markets for biodiversity offsets, in the United States and England. In both cases, regulators attempted to devise and standardise calculative mechanisms and socio-technical practices that promoted the use and expansion of the market. However, these socio-technical market practices have struggled to cross and negotiate uneven political and social spaces, being subject to moral judgements and political contestation. The paper demonstrates how the socio-technical practices of market expansion are affected by social entanglements, highlighting how this creates limits to the expansion of the market as a form of governance.     

气温对中国人口迁移的影响——基于285个城市的动态效应分析

随着全球气候变暖趋势逐渐加剧,气温变化不仅给人类生产生活带来了巨大变化,也对人口迁移产生了深远影响。基于2009—2021年中国城市气温和迁移人口面板数据,运用固定效应和系统广义矩估计(guneralized method of moments, GMM)法检验气温变化对人口迁移的影响。结果表明,气温变化与人口迁移间存在显著非线性相关关系,人口迁移行为更易受到上期决策的影响;存在区域异质性,中温带和亚热带地区人口迁移显著受到气温的影响;碳排放对人口迁移的影响显著为负,而低碳与新能源汽车试点政策对人口迁移呈显著的正向影响。本文提供的气温对人口迁移影响证据可为政府采取积极措施应对极端高温频发趋势,以及气温变化给人口迁移带来的潜在挑战提供科学依据。     

开发区土地利用效率及影响因素研究——以江苏省为例

土地利用效率偏低是我国开发区建设中亟需关注和解决的重要问题,运用数据包括分析(DEA)方法和Tobit模型对江苏省开发区的土地利用效率进行测算,并考察了政策因素、区域因素和内部因素对土地利用效率的影响,弥补了当前开发区土地利用效率研究的不足。研究结果表明:(1)江苏省开发区土地利用综合效率平均水平不高,纯技术效率不高是造成土地利用效率不高的主要原因;(2)开发区所在地区的经济发展水平,开发区的区位、级别、类型等区域和政策因素对开发区土地利用效率有较显著影响;(3)基础设施完善程度、获得专利数、主导产业产值占比等内部因素都能显著影响开发区土地利用效率;(4)严格控制用地规模、积极处置低效闲置土地有利于提高土地利用效率。