Fuzzy Rasch model in TOPSIS: A new approach for generating fuzzy numbers to assess the competitiveness of the tourism industries in Asian countries

This study proposes a novel approach, the Fuzzy Rasch model, which combines Item Response Theory (IRT) and fuzzy set theory. This paper applies the Fuzzy Rasch model in Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to analyse the Tourism Destination Competitiveness (TDC) of nine Asian countries: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines. The study was conducted in 2009 using 6 criteria and 15 indices. The results demonstrate the feasibility of applying the Fuzzy Rasch model in TOPSIS to analyse TDC in Asian countries. In addition, the proposed model also provides an effective means of applying the MCDM method to study TDC. Furthermore, in 2009, the Asian countries were ranked from most to least competitive as follows: China, Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea and the Philippines.     

逆向配送集成模型终端运输线路的优化研究

研究了正逆向集成配送的终端线路优化原则和优化方法，依据运输产品的性质将逆向配送产品分为可以与正向配送同车运输和不能同车运输两类，分别探讨了这两类产品的集成配送终端的线路优化策略，并用一个实例加以说明。     

西南某机场跑道沉降预测模型

机场道面沉降,严重影响机场安全运行.准确预测跑道工后沉降,对机场的建设与运行极为重要.以西南某机场跑道沉降变形的观测数据为依据,分别用双曲线模型、对数模型、指数模型以及灰色预测模型,对跑道沉降进行预测和对比分析,解决了小样本数下曲线预测精度较低及灰色模型对非线性预测准确度差等问题,提高了预测的精度;同时通过BP神经网络对组合预测模型的残差进行修正,最大限度地提高模型预测的精度和效果,为地基沉降预测提供借鉴.     

A Classification of Dutch Manufacturing based on a Model of Innovation

Summary The paper studies the degree of homogeneity of innovative behavior in order to determine empirically an industry classification of Dutch manufacturing that can be used for policy purposes. Defining homogeneity in terms of an economic model distinguishes our classification from existing taxonomies such as those of the OECD, Pavitt and the various classifications based on a principal components analysis. We use a two-limit tobit model with sample selection, which explains the decisions by business enterprises to innovate and the impact these decisions have on the share of innovative sales. The model is estimated for eleven industries based on the Dutch Standard Industrial Classification (SBI 1993). A likelihood ratio (LR) test is then performed to test for equality of the parameters across industries. We find that Dutch manufacturing consists of three groups of industries in terms of innovative behavior, a high-tech group, a low-tech group and the industry of wood. The same pattern shows up in the three Dutch Community Innovation Surveys. The empirical part of this study has been carried out at the Centre for Research of Economic Microdata at Statistics Netherlands. The authors wish to thank Statistics Netherlands, and in particular Bert Diederen, for helping us in accessing and using the Micronoom data set. The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors. The authors also wish to thank Fran?ois Laisney, Patrick Waelbroek and participants at presentations in Maastricht, Strasbourg, Leuven and Lille for their helpful comments. The first author acknowledges financial support from METEOR.     

相关信噪比对天线组阵相位估计性能的影响

传统天线组阵理论为了简化分析,均假设反正切相位鉴别器是一种最大似然估计器,其估计方差能够达到克拉美-罗下界。然而当相关信噪比在中等值以下时,这一假设条件不再适用。为此,分析了相关信噪比对相位估计性能的影响。针对传统天线组阵合成性能分析方法在描述低相关信噪比条件下相位估计性能方面存在的问题,通过引入修正因子,得到了相位估计方差的理论公式,实现了对低相关信噪比条件下相位估计性能的准确描述。     

基于用户偏好的多特征融合个性化图书推荐模型

随着图书馆图书数量的增加,读者无法快速获取自己所需资源。针对数字图书馆无法为用户提供准确个性的图书推荐服务的问题,通过分析个性化推荐技术,构建了一种基于用户偏好的个性化图书推荐模型,并进行了系统的研究。最后通过试实验验证其模型的有效性。     

持续旅游是一种弹性模式

持续旅游观源自持续发展观,然而许多旅游研究者在完全脱离了持续发展的情况下来讨论持续旅游,这样必然产生简单僵硬的持续旅游模式。本文旨在说明要制定持续发展旅游模式必须以具体的环境和持续发展为前提。所以就一般而言,持续旅游应该是一种灵活可变的弹性模式。本文举出正反两例让读者更好地理解持续旅游是一种弹性模式。     

商业银行次级债券定价模型

本文阐述了当前次级债券的定价模型,并以B-S期权定价模型为基础,根据次级债券的特性量身定做了一类定价模型,对未引入破产成本及引入破产成本两类模型进行了详细阐述,并结合我国工商银行2005年第1期次级债券的发行情况,就前一种模型的实际应用进行了实证研究。结果表明:当前发行的次级债券存在一定程度的高估,即票面利率没有充分反映次级债券实际存在的风险,债券存在一定的隐含担保。     

社交商务平台用户在线购买行为组态研究——基于AISAS模型和扎根理论的fsQCA分析

AISAS模型的5个关键环节（注意、兴趣、搜索、行动、分享）,通过扎根理论识别出决定社交商务平台用户在线购买行为的7个前因变量——在线广告效果、在线评论刺激、推荐引擎、平台形象、感知风险、社交分享和社会支持,采用包含42个题项的测量量表进行问卷调查,对363份问卷的fsQCA分析发现：所有前因条件均不能单独构成高在线购买行为和低在线购买行为的必要条件,提高在线广告效果和强化社会支持对高在线购买行为具有较为普适的作用,而在线广告效果较差和推荐引擎较弱则是产生低在线购买行为的重要条件;导致高在线购买行为的5条组态路径分别对应冲动型、浏览型、依附型、自主型、稳定型5种消费模式,导致低在线购买行为的3条组态路径可归纳为独立型和谨慎型2种消费模式。因此,平台运营者应重视在线广告、推荐引擎和社会支持的协同作用,改善平台形象和社交分享以巩固用户信任,并应制定个性化策略以满足不同用户的差异化需求,有效助力社会消费的增量提质。     

中国地区经济增长差距的成因分析

通过综合现有的经济理论并结合中国经济实际，建立储蓄增长、投资增长与经济增长关系的理论模型，同时采用Ｇｒａｎｇｅｒ因果检测检验各地区三者间关系，并与模型结论比较。结果表明，东部地区的三者关系与模型结论基本一致，即投资增长、经济增长及储蓄增长间存在良性循环；而中部地区投资效率低下、西部地区资本供给不足，致使中西部经济中的三者良性循环被迫中断或被低水平恶性循环取代，从而导致地区经济差距急剧扩大。