“Measurement” or Finding Things Out in Economics: A Comment

Immiserizing growth is a long-term phenomenon that occurs when the gain in a country's social welfare arising from economic growth is more than offset by the loss in such welfare associated with an adverse shift in the terms of trade. In one case explored many years ago by Jagdish Bhagwati, immiserizing growth occurs in a developing nation that has started economic growth but faces unfavorable international demand conditions as it increases its traditional exports. In another case explored recently by Paul A. Samuelson, immiserizing growth occurs for the growing industrialized country when its trade partner follows a policy of import substituting growth and, as a result, shifts the terms of trade against the exporting country. Still others have specified a variety of different cases of immiserizing growth. The author provides a simple graphical method to analyze these situations and then presents data showing that immiserizing growth is a relatively rare phenomenon.     

劳动仲裁证据制度完善研究

劳动争议案件数量递增、案情趋向复杂的特点对劳动仲裁程序提出了更高要求,而证据制度作为其核心理应不断完善。但目前劳动仲裁的证据规定较为分散,缺乏体系性;内容不全面,缺乏完整性;基本参照民事诉讼证据规则适用,并未体现劳动争议案件自身的特殊性,应当对证据制度做相应完善。完善的路径在于对证据资格、举证责任、证明方法、证明标准、证据规则等方面做出体系化、专门化的规定。     

NONLINEAR BUSINESS CYCLE MODELLING

Abstract. Literature which employs nonlinearities to explain economic fluctuations, commonly called business cycles, is surveyed. Relaxation of the linearity assumption significantly increases the range of possible dynamic solution paths and introduces the possibility that business cycles are endogenously determined. The dominant post-war modelling strategy has been the Frisch (1933) (and Slutsky, 1937) inspired one of developing essentially (log) linear economic models which produce damped cycles (or monotonic damping) to propagate the energy provided by repeated random (or autocorrelated) shocks. The cycle is exogenously driven, since it would die out in the absence of shocks. Deterministic (nonstochastic) nonlinear models can produce a wide range of endogenous fluctuations, including: stable limit cycles; growth cycles; and chaotic output, which have the appearance of random fluctuations. Further, the same model can produce qualitatively different outputs according to starting and parameter values. If the possibility of shocks to parameters is admitted, then behaviour can change abruptly following shocks. Evidence on the existence of nonlinearities and chaos in macroeconomic time series is assessed and alternative approaches to modelling dynamic economic development, related to the work of Keynes, Marx, Schumpeter and Shackle, are discussed. Their ideas have not proved readily amenable to mathematical modelling, but attempts to encapsulate some of them are reviewed.     

International harmonization of reporting required by stock markets

The 1980s witnessed a significant expansion of financial markets and, more specifically, of stock markets, at a world level. The differences which exist in the economic-accounting environment in which companies operate (legal structure, market development, national policy objectives, cultural factors) result in different procedures when shares are offered to the market, different reporting requirements required by the stock markets, etc. These differences reduce the efficiency of stock markets within an international environment. The importance of this fact has motivated the preparation of this paper, the aim of which is to analyze and quantify, where appropriate, the divergences which exist between the reporting requirements demanded by the stock markets of different countries and the home companies which wish to be quoted on them.     

浅论物品与证据种类的划分

物品因与案件事实联系的角度不同而以不同的方式对案件事实起着证明作用,从而以其为载体的物证、书证、鉴定结论及勘验检查笔录也就都有作为独立的诉讼证据种类存在的必要性.     

Statistical aspects of interpreting DNA profiling in legal cases

DNA profiling has become one of the most powerful forensic techniques that is used in criminal investigations to identify suspects. Moreover, scientific DNA evidence has become an important component in criminal trials. The interpretation of DNA evidence involves many statistical and probabilistic aspects, which have been the subject of fierce debates over past years. Many controversies are rooted in the differences between the so-called Likelihood Ratio approach to evidence interpretation and other methods. However, though interesting for the statistician and probability theorist, these discussions are obstructive for legal proceedings. Fortunately, many issues have by now been settled, but the ever-expanding possibilities keep on raising new discussion topics. This paper provides a brief overview of the statistical discussion, and addresses some of the most interesting issues in more detail.     

An International Investigation of the Factors that Determine Conditional Gold Betas

We investigate the unconditional and conditional gold betas of four country‐based gold industry portfolios. First, we document the similarity of unconditional gold betas across countries. Second, we find that the factors affecting conditional gold betas are different in the Australian and South African gold sectors relative to their North American counterparts. Only the gold bullion return volatility shows a negative association with conditional gold betas in Australian and South African gold mining firms. Moreover, gold price does not appear to play a systematic role in determining Australian or South African conditional gold betas. We discuss possible explanations for these findings.     

西部地区农民工生存状况及权益保障实证分析——对陕、甘、宁、川四省区397位农民工的调查与分析

通过问卷调查和深度访谈等形式对陕甘宁川四省区397位农民工的性别、年龄、学历、行业分布、外出打工时间、收入水平、工作稳定性、工作安全、居住状况、就医看病、精神文化生活和对自身生存状况及权益保障的满意度等15个方面的调查来看．当前西部地区农民工生存状况及权益保障十分令人担忧。各地、各级政府必须采取切实措施,从制度安排、社会公平、社会公平、社会保障、权益保护等方面给予西部地区农民212更多的保护,这对于西部地区建设社会主义新农村,构建和谐社会具有重大的现实意义。     

It's all about mechanisms – what process-tracing case studies should be tracing

ABSTRACT

Process-tracing (PT) as a distinct case-study methodology involves tracing causal mechanisms that link causes (X) with their effects (i.e. outcomes) (Y). We trace causal mechanisms whereby a cause (or set of causes) produces an outcome to both: (1) make stronger evidence-based inferences about causal relationships because the analysis produces within-case evidence of each step of the causal process (or absence thereof) in between a cause and outcome, and (2) because tracing mechanisms gives us a better understanding of how a cause produces an outcome. Yet, when we look at the methodological literature on PT, there is considerable ambiguity and discord about what causal mechanisms actually are. The result of this ambiguity and discord about what mechanisms are clearly maps onto existing applications of PT, with most PT case studies completely ignoring the underlying theoretical causal processes. In the few PT applications where mechanisms are unpacked, they are typically only developed in a very cursory fashion, with the result that there is considerable ambiguity about what theoretical process the ensuing case study actually is tracing. If we want to claim we are tracing causal mechanisms, the causal processes in between X and Y need to be unpacked theoretically. How can we claim we are tracing a causal ’process’ when we are not told what the process (i.e. mechanism) actually is? To alleviate this problem, the article attempts to develop a clearer definition of causal mechanisms to provide scholars with a framework for theorising mechanisms in a fashion that is amenable to in-depth empirical analysis using PT.     

Transforming structural econometrics: substantive vs. statistical premises of inference

How could one transform structural econometrics with a view to deliver empirical models that generate reliable inferences and trustworthy evidence for or against theories or claims, as well as provide trustable guidance for economic policy makers? Nell and Errouaki, in Rational Econometric Man: Transforming Structural Econometrics, put forward their proposal on how to achieve that, by discussing the effectiveness of alternative proposals in the literature. There is a lot to agree with in this book, but the primary aim of this note is to initiate the dialogue on issues where opinions differ on how to transform structural econometrics. The discussion focuses on what I consider a crucial aspect of empirical modeling—statistical adequacy—but the authors question its practical usefulness for empirical modeling. I will attempt to make a case that ‘methodological institutionalism’ cannot be properly implemented without employing the notion of statistical adequacy.