我国注册会计师行业监管模式的思考

由于注册会计师行业当前存在的问题其根源在于会计信息失真,市场缺乏对审计的自愿需求,事务所组织制度缺陷及该行业承担的法律风险过低等原因。需要政府有关部门借助行政权威来改变该行业的生存环境,促使该行业健康发展。因此,当前应该继续沿用当前的政府监管为主,以行业自律为辅的监管模式,更加符合我国当前国情。     

The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries

Hysteresis (unit root) of the current account, fiscal balance, and investment shares is found for the majority of industrial countries as well as selected emerging and transition economies between 1970 and 2001. Twin deficits are defined as a positive long-run relationship between the current account and the fiscal balance. The paper provides evidence for twin deficits in several countries, although we can see differences between the 1980s and the 1990s. Investment in some EU countries is financed to a relatively high degree at the international financial markets implying that the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle is less important in the EU.     

防止发电机失磁进相引起过流保护误动作的研究

为了保证励磁系统电压稳定性,一些发电机是允许进相同步运行的,而随着电网系统的不断增大,系统的无功储备更加充足,这也为单个机组低励进相稳定运行提供了保证。文章分析了发电机失磁运行的特性,阐述了发电机失磁进相时的物理过程,以及导致过流保护误动作的原因,并结合南京梅山能源有限公司现有发电机失磁保护的现状,提出了具有可操作性的预防措施,提高了发电机过流保护的可靠性。     

一次主变重瓦斯保护误动跳闸事故分析

瓦斯保护是油浸式电力变压器的主保护之一,它的正确动作对变压器的运行至关重要。本文通过对一次变压器重瓦斯保护误动作事故的分析,找到了导致重瓦斯保护误动作的原因,是由于在设计时使得交直流电源混接而导致重瓦斯保护误跳闸,由此因素入手提出了对策措施。     

On the relationship between the current account and the fiscal balance: The case of Canada

This paper uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to examine the long run and short run relationship between the current account and the fiscal balance, as well as other determinants, using Canadian quarterly data from 1981 to 2018. The results indicate that there is a long-run cointegrating relationship between the current account and the fiscal balance, investment, and private credit. Moreover, the relationship between the current account and the fiscal balance is positive in the long-run, thus providing support for the Keynesian Hypothesis of the fiscal balance driving the current account. Specifically, a one percentage point rise in the fiscal balance to GDP ratio yields a 0.43 percentage point rise in the current account as a percent of GDP. This positive relationship is present in the short-run as well. Finally, the findings from the error correction model yield a speed of adjustment of 0.225, hence 22.5% of the long-run adjustment in the current account occurs next period.     

Fiscal consolidations and electoral outcomes in emerging economies: Does the policy mix matter? Macro and micro level evidence from Latin America

Do voters punish governments that introduce fiscal “austerity” measures? If so, does voter response vary according to the composition of fiscal adjustments? The empirical literature on the political economy of fiscal adjustments, which is mostly OECD-based, argues that consolidations do not have significant electoral consequences. In contrast, we find that voters punish fiscal consolidations at the polls in Latin America. To explain this result, we focus on the way fiscal adjustments episodes are implemented, both in terms of their design (taxes vs. spending) and timing. Such episodes rely fundamentally on increasing tax rates and bases of indirect taxes (such as the VAT) that hit broad segments of the population. Moreover, these policies are often implemented when politicians have no choice but to consolidate, that is, under severe economic circumstances. These macro results are corroborated with micro evidence from an original survey experiment that measures voter’s fiscal policy preferences over the business cycle in seven countries across Latin America. The experimental evidence shows that respondents prefer expenditure cuts to tax increases during downturns, which is the opposite of the type of consolidations that countries typically pursue.     

Monitoring and forecasting annual public deficit every month: the case of France

In this paper we forecast annual budget deficits using monthly information. Using French monthly data on central government revenues and expenditures, the method we propose consists of: (1) estimating monthly ARIMA models for all items of central government revenues and expenditures; (2) inferring the annual ARIMA models from the monthly models; (3) using the inferred annual ARIMA models to perform one-step-ahead forecasts for each item; (4) compounding the annual forecasts of all revenues and expenditures to obtain an annual budget deficit forecast. The major empirical benefit of this technique is that as soon as new monthly data become available, annual deficit forecasts are updated. This allows us to detect in advance possible slippages in central government finances. For years 2002–2004, forecasts obtained following the proposed approach are compared with a benchmark method and with official predictions published by the French government. An evaluation of their relative performance is provided.      

On the Comparison of Run Orders of Unreplicated 2<Superscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis>–<Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis></Superscript> Designs in the Presence of a Time Trend

The response from a factorial experiment carried out in a time sequence may be affected by uncontrollable variables that are highly correlated with the time in which they occur. In such a situation, one possibility is to randomize the run order of the experiment. Another possibility is to use a systematic run order that is robust against time trends. Since randomized run orders make the time trend part of the error, it can be hoped that systematic run orders will be more effective to identify truly active factors. In this paper, a simulation study is used to compare the performances of the randomized and the systematic run orders. The response from an experiment where we have observed a strong time trend is used to demonstrate the influence of a realistic time trend on the run orders under consideration. The performance of the run orders is then measured by taking the probabilities of false rejection and the probabilities of detection of active contrasts. Our results show that the randomized run order managed to keep the nominal level, while the systematic did not. Additionally, when there were active factors, then the systematic run orders did not achieve more power than did the randomized run order.     

我国泡沫注册资本的法学分析

通过对泡沫注册资本现象的外在表现和现实危害的观察，分析了泡沫注册资本形成的三个方面的原因，即登记审查制度、验资制度及资本制度存在的导致泡沫注册资本的原因，并针对这三方面原因，探讨了根治泡沫注册资本的法律对策。     

论虚假财务报告舞弊手法及防范

会计信息的失真是一直困扰我国会计理论界的一个难题,尤其是财务报告的弄虚作假。分析虚假财务报告形成的原因,找出解决这一问题的措施,不仅能保护我国中小投资者的利益,使我国的证券市场真正地做到公开、公平、公正,更能使我国的证券市场健康的发展。