浅析会计信息失真的原因及对策

会计信息失真严重地干扰了正常的社会经济秩序已引起了业界、广大投资者、债权人和政府主管部门以及会计法律、法规的制定机构等的极大关注。本文分析归纳了导致国有企业会计信息失真的原因 ,并针对性地提出了提高会计信息质量和防范会计信息失真的措施     

透视美国巨额贸易逆差与经济增长并存的合理性

美国巨额贸易逆差既是美国经济增长的内在需要,也对美国经济增长做出了贡献,亦非美国失业率上升的根源,从而巨额贸易逆差与经济增长、低失业率长期并存。而美元的特殊地位和美国独特的进出口商品结构,以及跨国公司内部贸易和不同统计口径所得逆差数据的差异,也分别从不同侧面解释了美国经济增长中存在巨额贸易逆差的合理性。虽然巨额贸易逆差暂时未阻碍美国经济增长,但必须重视其未来潜在的风险。     

美国经常项目赤字的可持续性研究

近年来,美国巨额经常项目赤字和美元持续贬值引起了经济学界的强烈关注,一些经济学家发出了美元和国际货币体系崩溃的警告。在现行国际货币体系即以资产为本位的泛布雷顿森林体系下,中心国家美国和外围亚洲国家形成了双赢的局面。该体系与布雷顿森林体系相比具有更大的安全性和稳定性,美国能够承受更大规模的经常项目赤字,并由此获得了更为灵活的政策操作空间。在某种程度上,美国巨额经常项目赤字是其雄厚的金融和经济实力的体现。     

The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances: Evidence from the European Union

We revisit the relation between budget deficits and current account deficits for 28 European Union countries from 1996 to 2019. We find that an increase in budget deficit of 1 pp of GDP results in a deterioration of the current account deficit of 0.318 pp of GDP, which supports the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. On the other hand, dynamic panel estimates partially corroborate the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis in the presence of a fiscal rules index. In addition: i) the relation between the two deficits is asymmetric and the negative impact of the recent Eurozone banking and sovereign debt crisis on the current account balance is observed; ii) with right-wing governments, the impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is mitigated; if the government is on the left, the impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is amplified; iii) after 2010, the budget balance positively affects the current account balance; and iv) the positive impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is higher in the cases of non-Eurozone countries, high budget deficit countries, and low exports countries, whereas it is lower in the cases of Eurozone countries, low budget deficit countries, and high exports countries.     

应收账款舞弊及审计对策

针对应收账款审计问题,采用归纳分析的方法,分析了企业应收账款舞弊的动机和主要表现手段,提出加强应收账款函证、合理利用辅助工具、严格执行三级复核等审计对策。研究结果为控制应收账款审计风险具有指导意义。     

Fiscal deficits and the socioeconomic consequences of rebalancing: Insights from a TVP-VAR with stochastic volatility

This article connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert, Horn, & Paetz, 2019); (ii) the unemployment-output trade-off is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behaviour of fiscal deficit shocks and the unemployment-output trade-off is studied in this article using a time-varying parameter (TVP) vector autoregression (VAR) with stochastic volatility techniques applied to the analysis of data from Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States of America. We confirm the trade-off heterogeneity across country, and its time-varying nature across time, showing in addition its fluctuation around a long-run reference value. We document significant short-run impacts of fiscal shocks on the unemployment-output trade-off which, based on the experience of the Global Financial Crisis, becomes larger in periods of economic turmoil. Policy-wise, the rebalancing of public finances may have unexpected adverse effects on job creation if implemented during slumps, precisely when the labour market sensitivity with respect to the performance of the product market is likely to be more acute. This message is particularly relevant in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.     

Do independent fiscal institutions cause better fiscal outcomes in the European Union?

This paper explores the budgetary implications of the independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) in the European Union (EU). We employ a dynamic panel model for the period 2000–2019 and find that these fiscal watchdogs have a positive and significant influence not only on government budget balance for the EU member states, resulting in smaller government budget deficits, but also on countries’ compliance with fiscal rules, results that hold across alternative fiscal balances. IFIs appear to have a beneficial impact on fiscal performance and compliance with numerical targets in countries with poorly designed fiscal responsibility norms but weaker influence when fiscal rules are less binding (well-designed fiscal rules). The findings remain significant regardless the year of accession to the EU (old vs. new members) or euro-area status (euro-area vs. non-euro-area members). However, we document that IFIs play a larger role in countries that established these monitoring bodies before 2013, indicating that experience matters in IFI performance. Also, our findings show that the influence of IFIs remains if we take into account institutional reforms in which their mandates were extended with different powers and tasks, which has a positive and significant effect on fiscal balances. Moreover, we find that, under the circumstance of systemic and banking crises, these institutions are associated with improved fiscal outcomes, reflecting their increased concern about the path of public finances and their role in reducing budgetary forecasting biases. Our results are robust to a variety of specifications and models, including alternative measures of the government budget balance and after controlling for a set of institutional characteristics and for potential endogeneity in the estimations.     

Has the acceleration of privatization become inevitable in Bahrain?

Bahrain remains the most vulnerable Gulf country due to its limited savings and sharp rise in debt levels, leaving it exposed to high financing risks. The financial crisis has been deepened by the economic double blow of the decline in oil prices and the effects resulting from the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. Bahrain has decreased subsidies and increased taxes on many products. Those measures seem, however, insufficient to mitigate the negative impacts on the economy. This paper presents a model based on a comparison between fast privatization and gradual privatization strategies undertaken in some Bahraini economic sectors. It shows that the contribution of privatization to economic restructuring is only as effective as the commitment of the government to maintain a high pace of privatization. This condition can provide needed revenues, and can particularly foster private investments and initiatives. Therefore, it may represent an appropriate context to elevate Bahrain out of the present equilibrium characterized by slow privatization and government dominance on the economy.