The Great Escape: The Multinational Trade Deficit in Historical Perspective

During the Bretton Woods era, the debate surrounding U.S. export sales versus U.S. multinational production focused primarily on the maintenance of pegged exchange rates and labor’s concern over the export of jobs. The collapse of Bretton Woods gave at least the hope that a decline in the dollar would expand exports and limit imports. Yet, the forty-year secular decline in the dollar has been one with a secular expansion of U.S. trade deficits. The older concerns of U.S. multinational sales competing with U.S. exports retain a current relevance. They help explain the unending nature of U.S. trade deficits.     

基于一维距离像稀疏表达的无源假目标识别

为了解决敌方释放箔条干扰我方防空反击任务或者敌方舰船设置角反射器阵列干扰我方对海目标打击任务中的雷达抗干扰问题，提出了一种基于雷达一维距离像的稀疏表达的无源假目标识别的方法。首先，分别利用大量关注目标和无源欺骗干扰的雷达一维距离像数据进行稀疏字典学习，分别得到目标和干扰的稀疏字典；然后利用两种稀疏字典分别对未知的雷达一维距离像信号进行稀疏表达；最后分别计算两种稀疏字典对未知信号稀疏表达的重构误差，利用重构误差比值识别目标和干扰类别。仿真结果表明，在目标与无源假目标干扰的回波不混叠、目标与干扰噪声比3 dB条件下，识别无源假目标欺骗干扰的准确率超过90%，证明了该方法抗无源假目标干扰的有效性。     

The impact of tourism on deficit in balance of payments of Pakistan: an application of bounds testing approach to cointegration

The current study is intended to analyze the long-run relationship between deficit in balance of payments (BOPs) and tourism for the period of 1976–2015 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The findings of the paper exposed an indirect relationship between tourism and BOP deficit in the context of Pakistan economy, while deficit balance of trade, real effective exchange rate, and deficit in fiscal balance have a positive and significant association with the deficit in the BOPs in the long run. Based on the findings, it is recommended that policies should be devised that promote the tourism industry of Pakistan as it would be helpful in reducing the deficit in the BOPs.     

Are Private Vices Public Finance Virtues? An Empirical Investigation

The article investigates the impact of widely accepted private vices (smoking and alcohol and gasoline consumption) on public finance. Introducing the concept of “vice-related deficit,” which aggregates the positive effects on public finance on the revenue side (cash inflows) and the negative effects on the expenditures side (cash outflows), the article looks upon cigarette, alcohol, and gasoline consumption as determinants of vice-related deficit for a number of 68 countries for year 2012. We found that smoking had a negative effect on vice-related budget balance, while alcohol and gasoline consumption had a positive effect. As control variables, we used life expectancy and size of the economy, both having been found with negative effects. The results prove robust to different sample adjustments. We also found that the negative effect of private vices on public finance is stronger for Christian countries than for non-Christian countries. Policy recommendations were made accordingly.     

虚假会计信息行为主体连带责任的困境及改进路径

基于法哲学与法经济学视角,连带责任的有效性统一于行为的正激励效应,其产生的前提是行为主体间信息对称性或行为互通性。目前虚假会计信息行为主体连带责任的制度设计困境在于法律规范既没有体现法的客观性价值需求,也没有体现行为主体利益的综合效用性需求,改进的路径应当是寻着正激励效应产生的目标价值思路进行重新设计。     

财政政策与经常项目赤字关系研究

经常项目赤字是货币危机或金融危机的主要原因之一。财政政策作为政府调控经常的一个重要政策工具，对经常项目有显著影响。本文从理论和实践上对财政政策与经常项目赤字之间的关系进行了深入研究。并且分析了当前我国所执行的扩张性的财政政策对我国经常项目的平衡可能产生的不利影响。最后对改善我国经常项目提出了一些财政对策。     

资本市场虚假审计报告民事责任问题研究

虚假审计报告事件在我国屡屡发生,而在实务中,注册会计师几乎不会因之作出民事赔偿。这种情况严重限制了注册会计师行业的发展。分析我国注册会计师民事责任法律制度的特点及审计民事索赔程序,探讨其所涉及的注册会计师过错认定、审计报告使用者的范围及民事责任的内容、注册会计师应承担的民事责任程度等关键问题。在已有研究的基础上,对推定过错原则的适用性、区分审计报告使用者的类型以分别确定违约责任和侵权责任,以及分别追究被审计单位和注册会计师民事责任等问题进行了研究。     

Is it all about awareness? The normalization of coastal risk

Coastal risk is already high in several parts of the world and is expected to be amplified by climate change, which makes it necessary to outline effective risk management strategies. Risk managers assume that increasing awareness of coastal risk is the key to public support and endorsement of risk management strategies – an assumption that underlies a common worldview on the public understanding of science, which has been named the deficit model. We argue that the effects of awareness are not as straightforward. In particular, awareness of coastal hazards might not lead to more technically accurate risk perceptions. Based on research on risk perception normalization, we explored the hypothesis that coastal risk awareness reduces coastal risk perception – in particular the perceived likelihood of occurrence of coastal hazards – through its effect on reliance on protective measures to prevent risk. Individuals can rely on protective measures, even when those are not effective, as a positive illusion to reduce risk perception. This effect might be stronger for higher probability hazards and for permanent residents of costal zones. Data from 410 individuals living in coastal zones corroborated most of our expectations. Global results demonstrated a risk normalization effect mediated by reliance on current measures. Additional analyses made clear that this effect occurred in 2 of the 5 high-probability hazards (flood and storm), and not in the low-probability hazard (tsunami). Normalization might be more likely among high-probability hazards which entail catastrophic and immediate impacts. This effect was also found among permanent residents, but not among temporary residents. Results imply that coastal risk management might benefit from (a) taking risk perception normalization effects into account, (b) tailoring strategies for permanent and temporary residents and (c) promoting a higher public engagement, which would facilitate a more adaptive and effective coping with coastal risk than the use of positive illusions.     

Fiscal Consolidation and the Public Sector Balance Sheet in South Africa

Between 1994 and 2008 the South African government reduced its debt/GDP ratio from almost 50% to 27%. Unfortunately this reduction was accompanied by a significant decrease in government's fixed capital/GDP ratio from 90% to 55% – fiscal sustainability might have been restored, but government's balance sheet did not improve. A similar story can be told for State Owned Enterprises. Since the Great Recession the fiscal situation worsened markedly – the public debt ratio again approaches 50%. To restore fiscal sustainability this article suggests that the government faces two options: (1) to create room for future countercyclical policy, the government must cut current expenditure and reduce the public debt/GDP ratio to its pre‐crisis level, or (2) substitute much‐needed infrastructure capital expenditure for current expenditure while stabilising the debt/GDP ratio at its post‐crisis level. Given that the much lower fixed capital/GDP ratio inhibits economic growth, the latter option might be more sensible.     

论《聊斋志异》的艺术美

《聊斋志异》近五百篇作品,其丰富的内容是通过特有的艺术形式得以表现的。《聊斋志异》的艺术美主要表现在：虚幻境地与真实世界的对比统一美,变幻多姿与引人入胜的情节美,奇特想象的瑰异境界美。