企业财务风险预警体系分析

财务风险预警是现代企业进行战略管理的重要方式之一,本文阐述了建立财务风险预警体系的意义和财务风险产生的原因,构建了企业财务风险预警指标。     

美国个人理财服务及对我国的启示

个人理财行为是社会经济发展到一定阶段的产物,个人理财需求的出现促进了个人理财服务市场的产生。我国应借鉴美国个人理财服务发展的经验,培育和开拓国内个人理财服务市场,可从以下方面入手:开展国民理财教育,改变我国居民过于保守的理财观念;完善风险控制机制,加强监管;突破经营分业困境,创新理财产品;培养专业人才、构建良好服务体系等。     

银行、市场的有效性与稳定性

传统上,金融系统主要有两种形式,一种是以银行为基础的,另一种是以市场为基础的。它们的有效性需要从几个方面来比较,包括风险分担、信息供给、资助新兴产业、法人治理、法律、政治对金融的影响。这两种金融系统各有利弊。就其稳定性来讲,它们都会遭受经济危机的危害。展望未来的金融系统,应该是以金融中介和市场共为基础,具有很多的优点而几乎没有缺陷。     

重塑二元金融结构下的农村金融

中国目前的金融结构具有明显的二元性。二元金融结构对中国农村发展产生严重的负面影响。要从根本上解决中国“三农”问题,必须重塑二元金融结构下的农村金融,充分发挥农村金融的“资金催化剂”作用。     

政府投资项目代建制的财政和财务管理工作探讨

代建制作为一种新的建设模式,克服了“投、建、管、用”四位一体的政府投资工程管理模式所带来的非专业化、低效率、低质量等弊端,通过专业化、集中化和市场化的管理,实现投资控制,保证质量和工期。但代建制是有相应的配套制度作保障的,如果制度不配套,依然会存在风险。在新的政府协调干预机制下———建筑工务局的成立,探讨如何搞好代建制的财政财务管理工作。     

补贴概念与效果

补贴是一个相当复杂的议题,其复杂性不仅表现在概念上,也表现在它可能产生的效果上。补贴可能增加也可能降低其受体的利润水平;可能对国际贸易产生扭曲效果,其影响也可能仅限于国内;可能有助于政府实现其意欲达成的目标,也可能背离其初衷;可能增加或降低政府收益,也可能无影响。把补贴宽泛地界定为有可能在短期、中期或长期对其受体的利润水平产生影响的政府作为(或不作为),有助于使决策者把关注重点转向补贴效果,从而有利于其做出应否维持、增加、减少或消除特定补贴的判断。     

PASSPORT OPTIONS

We relate the theory of passport options with general principles from martingale theory as well as with the theory of Bessel processcs. The calculation of the price of a passport option leads to an equality between two norms on continuous martingales. We also solve the discrete time case for passport options.     

Liquidity Pools, Risk Sharing, and Financial Contagion

This paper reevaluates the Allen–Gale (2000) analysis of interbank deposits to explain financial contagion. This paper modifies the pecking order of asset liquidation developed in Allen–Gale, which is essential in fragility analysis. Furthermore, we also provide a claim structure called liquidity pool that can both achieve risk sharing and prevent financial contagion across regions when asymmetric information about bank assets is absent. This model can partly explain why bank panics reduced substantially after the founding of the Fed and the role of IMF in regional financial crises.     

A Benchmark Approach to Filtering in Finance

The paper proposes the use of the growth optimal portfolio for pricing and hedging in incomplete markets when there are unobserved factors that have to be filtered. The proposed filtering framework is applicable also in cases when there does not exist an equivalent risk neutral martingale measure. The reduction of the variance of derivative prices for increasing degrees of available information is measured. 1991 Mathematics Subject Classification: primary 90A09; secondary 60G99; 62P20 JEL Classification: G10, G13     

Arrow's equivalency theorem in a model with neoclassical firms

Summary. In this paper we consider a two-period general equilibrium model with uncertainty and real assets as financial instruments. The novelty of the analysis is that real assets are the stocks of neoclassical firms, so that both returns and yields depend on anticipated spot goods prices (and, of course, the yield matrix may change rank with prices). Assuming that financial markets are potentially complete, we establish generic existence of financial equilibrium and prove that there exists a dense set of economies such that financial equilibria are efficient.Received: 19 April 2001, Revised: 23 April 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C60, D51, G10, D60.I am extremely grateful to Dave Cass for drawing my attention to this problem and inspiring me to work on it as well as for many stimulating discussions. I also benefited from discussions with H. Polemarchakis, M. Stinchcombe, and A. Villanacci. I am thankful to the anonymous referee of the first versions of the paper for thoughtful comments and suggestions, and to participants of a recruiting seminar at the University of Texas at Austin (January 2001), the Conference on Economic Design SED 2000, Istanbul, Turkey (June 2000), and Inter-University Student Conference, New York University, New York (May 2000).