多重均衡模式与近期人民币汇率波动

当前我国外汇市场已进入多重均衡状态。在给定货物贸易和直接投资累计较大顺差、人民币利率高于外币利率的情况下,市场预期变化仍有可能对跨境资本流动和人民币汇率走势产生巨大影响。这也可以解释当前我国国际收支特点和近期人民币汇率波动。随着国际收支平衡机制的不断完善以及境内外经济金融环境的不断演变,跨境资本流动和人民币汇率双向波动有可能成为一种新常态。     

进一步提高Shibor报价的可交易性

Shibor自正式运行以来已经对中国的利率市场化改革产生了积极而深远的影响。结合国外经验和国内现状,文章认为,在Shibor培育过程中提高报价的可交易性是Shibor能否真正成为利率基准的根本所在。目前,Shibor短端报价的可交易性已得到了市场的认可,文章从扩大以Shibor为基准的回购交易、拓宽Shibor报价行多元性等方面就提高中长端Shibor可交易性提出建议。     

用风险价值度量固定收入债券的市场风险

笔者主要研究了固定收益证券的市场风险量化方法。在对债券合理定价的基础上,引入新型的风险监管方法—VAR(风险价值),对债券的市场风险进行定量分析。文中用三种方法(参数法、历史模拟法、蒙特卡罗法)计算了债券的VAR。     

从经济学角度看劳动者的违约金承担与劳动合同期

面对我国《劳动合同法》的出台,作者试图突破现有法理学研究的局限性,以违约金的补偿性质为前提,通过违约金计算模型的建立,从经济学的成本收益角度对劳动者的违约金承担和劳动合同期限等问题进行本质上的分析和探讨,以从经济理论上证明我国《劳动合同法》中取消劳动者违约金和限制劳动合同期等规定的一般合理性,并进一步对培训费用分摊等法律问题和改善劳动者弱势地位的办法等提出了具体的看法和建议。     

广州市区商品住宅空置现状与成因分析

通过实地抽样调查，摸清了广州市区近3年建筑竣工的商品住宅分行政区、分地段、分类型空置状况并分析其原因。认为广州市房地产业发展取得巨大成就的同时，不要忽视商品住宅的空置问题，要切实采取有效措施，积极消化现有空置住宅，以利于广州市房地产业的可持续发展。     

Interest rate rules, inflation and the Taylor principle: an analytical exploration

Summary. The purpose of this article is to characterize optimal interest rate rules in the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, and notably to scrutinize the “Taylor principle”, according to which the nominal interest rate should respond more than one for one to inflation. This model yields explicit solutions for the optimal rule. We find that the elasticity of response depends on numerous factors, such as the degree of price rigidity, the autocorrelation of the underlying shocks, or which measure of inflation is used. In general the optimal elasticity of the interest rate with respect to inflation needs not be greater than one.Received: 6 November 2003, Revised: 17 August 2004 JEL Classification Numbers: E5, E52, E58.J.-P. Bénassy: I wish to thank Daniel Laskar and an anonymous referee for their perceptive comments on earlier drafts of this paper. Of course all remaining deficiencies are mine.     

Effects of government spending shocks in China,Japan, and Korea

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the effects of government spending shocks on various key macro variables in China, Korea, and Japan using structural VAR models. The main empirical findings are as follows. Government spending multipliers of all three countries are far larger than 1 in recent years. The effectiveness of fiscal expansion has not changed markedly in China but substantially increased in Korea (after the Asian financial crisis) and Japan (during zero lower bound period). Increases in the effectiveness of fiscal expansion are associated with changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy regimes and institutions of these countries. Among the three countries, the government spending multiplier is relatively large in China but relatively small in Japan in recent years. Although the effects on exchange rate and trade balance vary across countries and sample periods, real exchange rate tends to depreciate, whereas trade balance tends to improve under flexible exchange rate regimes. Some empirical findings are consistent with standard theory, but others are not.

Abbreviations: NK: New Keynesian VAR: Vector Autoregressive ZLB: Zero Lower Bound     

The Appreciation Pressure on RMB Yuan and the Adjustment of RMB Exchange Rate Policy

China has maintained RMB exchange rate nearly unchanged since 1998. However, with the relaxation of capital control, a crawling peg, a more flexible RMB exchange rate regime, is inevitable. Based on improving the current formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, Chinese government could widen the floating band around the central parity; in the long run, switching the peg from USD alone to a basket of currencies may be a better choice.     

社会固定投资与居民福利量化关系模型分析

固定资本投资是流动资本投资的前提和基础,也是整个社会经济规模扩张与发展所必须依赖的重要物质基础。现期厂商的固定资本投资会直接导致本期总需求的增加,在保持总供求平衡的前提下,政府本期的调控货币投放规模将会相应减小,从而影响本期社会弱势居民的福利水平。