MODELS OF BANKING INSTABILITY: A PARTIAL REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract. This paper critically examines the theoretical literature on banking instability that has followed Diamond and Dybvig (1983). It explores the extent to which it (a) explains banking instability within a theoretical context in which financial intermediaries improve on unintermediated markets, and (b) justifies government involvement in the financial intermediation industry. It suggests that the literature has yet to provide a satisfactory theoretical basis for banking instability as such since the intermediaries which arise from it are peculiar mutual funds that bear little resemblance to real-world banks. In addition, the paper challenges the widespread belief that this literature provides a sound foundation for government involvement in the industry. It suggests that arguments for government intervention are open to objection on various grounds, the most important one being that they are inconsistent with the existence of properly motivated financial intermediation in these models.     

ASSESSING CAPITAL CHARGING IN THE NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICE

Capital charging was introduced into the NHS in 1991, as one of the components of the internal market reforms. Having established context and rationale, this article reviews published surveys of capital charging. It then reports the results of a questionnaire survey conducted in 1994 which probed the views of finance and estates staff in NHS provider units in Scotland as to the efficacy and effects ofcapital charging. Strong support for the principle of capital charging was found, despite considerable evidence of implementation difficulties which had differentially impacted upon Health Boards. Respondents expected that the effects of capital charging would be lower investment and higher disposals, thus leading to a smaller NHS estate.     

Should Estonia euroize?

Estonia has been operating a currency board arrangement tied to the deutschemark, now the euro, since 1992. Optimal currency area considerations, policy orientation and the flexibility of prices and wages in Estonia support a case for monetary union with the eurozone. But the European Union requires Estonia to wait until EU accession and subsequent Eurosystem accession before it can adopt the euro. In the meanwhile, gains expected from euroization — lower and more stable interest rates, lower transactions costs in trade and increased transparency, all of which would promote trade, investments and economic growth — would be forgone. In this context, the paper raises the question, should Estonia go ahead and euroize now? JEL classification: E42, E58, F33.     

人民币汇率定价的逆周期因子：启用时间、驱动因素与实施效果*

本文对2017年5月—2019年9月期间人民币汇率定价过程中逆周期因子的使用进行了测算，并构建非限制性VAR模型分析了中国央行两次启用逆周期因子的驱动因素和实施效果。研究发现：第一，相对于官方公布时间，两次逆周期因子调节均呈现出提前开始和滞后结束的情况，且调整幅度呈现逐渐收窄的趋势；第二，第二次逆周期因子的调节幅度大于第一次；第三，人民币汇率波动是第一次逆周期因子调节的主要驱动因素，而离岸在岸汇价差和汇率政策不确定性是第二次逆周期因子调节的主要驱动因素；第四，两次逆周期因子调节均对人民币汇率波动产生了抑制作用，但加剧了离岸市场人民币贬值预期。     

汇率风险套期比率确定方法的比较与评析

套期比率确定方法可大致分为基于回归技术和基于均值/方差理论的套期比率确定方法两类。采用新的计量分析工具来研究不完备市场中的套期保值,以及带“摩擦”的金融市场中的套期保值,将会成为现代套期保值理论新的理论领域。     

Dynamical analysis of corporate bonds based on the yield spread term-quality surface

Our aim of this research is to propose a model which estimates implied relative credit reliability from the yield spread of defaultable bonds and evaluates their spread risk. We introduce “yield spread term-quality surface” (YSTQS) which is defined on the space of duration and credit reliability of the issuers, and express their yield spread. First, we review the general pricing theorem of defaultable bonds with unpredictable recovery in the no-arbitrage context based on the external hazard rates. Second, we show that the dynamics of state variables determine the shape of the YSTQS, and they drive the YSTQS if the loss-adjusted hazard rates are described by a function of them. Finally, we show an empirical analysis of our model with daily yield spread, duration, and the credit ratings of corporate bonds.

The Policy Challenge with Floating Exchange Rates: Turkey’s Recent Experience

This paper evaluates the developments in the Turkish economy in light of the Central Bank of Turkey’s (CBT) policies during a recent period of floating exchange rate system (March 2001–July 2003). It is found that the CBT was effective in containing volatility and reducing the average inflation rate while there was a strong recovery of output. However, there are accumulated risks in the economy. Particularly, the extreme appreciation of the Turkish lira during this period and the record level of real interest rates give the impression that the current state of the economy is fragile. Unless the government accelerates the structural reform process and pursues sound fiscal policies to reduce the public sector borrowing requirement and the debt ratio, an adverse shock to the system may trigger a reversal of fortune.     

ARDL Approach to the Exchange Rate Overshooting in Taiwan

This paper re-examines Dornbusch’s (1976) sticky-price monetary model to exchange rate determination by employing both conventional Johansen’s (1988, 1990, 1994) maximum likelihood cointegration test and the ARDL Bound test by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) for the monthly data of Taiwan over the period 1986:01 ∼ 2003:04. Ambiguous results are found for the long-run equilibrium relationship between the NTD/USD exchange rate and macro fundamentals. With the advantage that ARDL Bound test incorporates both I(1) and I(0) series, we conclude our empirical evidence that there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rates and macro fundamentals. Moreover, for the short-run dynamic response, the result from the ARDL-UECM-MAIC (1, 10, 10, 8, 10) setting supports the overshooting of currency depreciation as pre-described by Dornbusch (1976). However, this overshooting phenomenon does not exist the current month, but one month after.JEL Classification: C32, B22, E44     

代理发放工资账户功能创新的探讨

文章借鉴了美国商业银行账户管理的创新方式,提出了国内商业银行将代理发放工资账户设计为“工资理财账户”的设想,并对其可行性进行了分析。