对我国高GDP增长率发展模式的一些思考

改革开放以来,我国一直保持着高GDP增长率。本文通过对一些数据的分析和与国外对比,对如此高的GDP增长率背后隐藏的一些问题进行了思考,发现目前我国的GDP构成存在一定的畸形,尤其是消费和固定资产投资;同时高GDP增长率发展模式下,不利于我国发展"生态经济",同时社会公共事业也面临种种问题。同时还分析到目前的国内外形势都已不适合追求如此高的GDP增长率。本文还对解决这些问题提出了一些建议,以促进我国经济持续健康的发展。     

关于中国建立显性存款保险制度的必要性论证和若干建议——基于金融危机背景和国外经验的探讨

以金融危机下国外存款保险制度的应对经验入手,结合隐性存款保险制度的缺陷进行分析,论证了中国建立显性存款保险制度的必要性并提出若干建议。首先介绍存款保险制度的基本理论,国外存款保险制度的发展概况,接着分析国外存款保险制度在金融危机中发挥的作用,以此提出中国在目前建立存款保险制度的必要性,最后就金融危机下国外经验给予的启示和中国特殊国情提出若干建议。     

Some Properties of Past Entropy and their Applications

In the context of information theory, measure of uncertainty in past lifetime distribution has been proposed by Di Crescenzo and Longobardi (J Appl Probab 39:434–440, 2002). In this paper, we study some ordering and aging properties in terms of past entropy (based on past lifetime) and develop some characterization results. Some discrete distribution results are also addressed here.     

财政赤字、铸币收入与通货膨胀

当政府出现较严重的财政赤字时,增收铸币税具有重要意义。在面临通货膨胀威胁时,必须适当放慢货币供应速度,减少铸币收入。理论证明,在通货膨胀严重时期,减少铸币税可以有效缓解通货膨胀。     

产业结构调整的汇率驱动路径:价格穿越模型的解释

汇率作为宏观经济调节变量,在受到其它经济条件或经济因素影响的同时,其变动对国民经济也有着广泛而复杂的作用。通过对中国汇率制度历史演进的分析,可以发现人民币汇率的变动始终与中国产业结构的调整息息相关。文章以价格这一中间变量作为动力因素,建立价格穿越模型,分析汇率变动引起产业结构调整的传导路径与作用机理。     

开放经济条件下我国货币需求研究

文章引入股票流通市值、汇率等变量对开放经济条件下我国货币需求函数进行全面研究。协整和误差修正模型结果表明：汇率是除社会消费品零售总额外影响我国长短期货币需求稳定的最重要的变量,并且对我国货币需求的影响很大;股票市场发展对我国长期和短期货币需求的影响很小。这一发现可为我国当前反通货膨胀的货币政策的制订提供重要的参考。为控制货币供应量,我们应该重点关注汇率波动。     

基于超调模型和虚拟经济视角的汇率动态分析

汇率决定及其动态调整分析是汇率理论的研究内核。文章以汇率超调模型为基础,突出虚拟经济与实体经济双轮驱动及其与宏观经济总供给和总需求关联运行的作用机理,结合非线性宏观金融理论在货币供需分析中引入可交易金融资产,尝试构建新的分析框架。在虚拟经济与实体经济视角下分析美元名义汇率的动态变化,并以此为基础进行实证研究,考察美元汇率及经济失调。     

Time-varying risk aversion and renminbi exchange rate volatility: Evidence from CARR-MIDAS model

In this paper, we investigate the relation between time-varying risk aversion and renminbi exchange rate volatility using the conditional autoregressive range-mixed-data sampling (CARR-MIDAS) model. The CARR-MIDAS model is a range-based volatility model, which exploits intraday information regarding the intraday trajectory of the price. Moreover, the model features a MIDAS structure allowing for time-varying risk aversion to drive the long-run volatility dynamics. Our empirical results show that time-varying risk aversion has a significantly negative effect on the long-run volatility of renminbi exchange rate. Moreover, we observe that both intraday ranges and time-varying risk aversion contain important information for forecasting renminbi exchange rate volatility. The range-based CARR-MIDAS model incorporating time-varying risk aversion provides more accurate out-of-sample forecasts of renminbi exchange rate volatility compared to a variety of competing models, including the return-based GARCH, GARCH-MIDAS and GARCH-MIDAS incorporating time-varying risk aversion as well as range-based CARR, CARR-MIDAS and heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR), for forecast horizons of 1 day up to 3 months. This result is robust to alternative risk aversion measure, alternative MIDAS lags as well as alternative out-of-sample periods. Overall, our findings highlight the value of incorporating intraday information and time-varying risk aversion for forecasting the renminbi exchange rate volatility.     

东北某铁路小流域水文计算与流量验证

水文计算是铁路勘察设计中的重要内容。本文针对长西铁路小流域水文计算,对地方经验公式法、铁三院法计算结果进行综合分析,并用形态法进行验证,确定适合本地区小流域流量的计算公式,为准确计算暴雨径流提供科学依据。     

On estimating Armington elasticities for Japan's meat imports

By fully accounting for the distinct tariff regimes levied on imported meat, we estimate substitution elasticities of Japan's two-stage import aggregation functions for beef, chicken and pork. Although the regression analysis crucially depends on the price that consumers face, the post-tariff price of imported meat depends not only on ad valorem duties but also on tariff rate quotas and gate price system regimes. The effective tariff rate is consequently evaluated by utilising monthly transaction data. To address potential endogeneity problems, we apply exchange rates that we believe to be independent of the demand shocks for imported meat. The panel nature of the data allows us to retrieve the first-stage aggregates via time dummy variables, free of demand shocks, to be used as part of the explanatory variable and as an instrument in the second-stage regression.