旅游保险企业顾客资产函数模型构建——基于互补性理论的探讨

旅游保险企业销售业绩不理想的一个主要原因,是不能很好地理解互补性营销资产管理的互补机理。旅游保险企业在组合渠道资产(互补性资产)时,如果原有服务质量(核心营销资产)比较薄弱,而新渠道资产需要对服务质量作出变革时,就不可以只组合进渠道资产而保持原有服务质量不变,否则只能达到次优甚至失败。中国旅游保险企业加强与互补体合作,就有可能获取后发营销竞争优势。     

随机数在随机事件与概率教学中的应用探索

本文对在随机事件与概率中的常见问题提出了一种新的借助于计算机实现的解决思路,即通过机器自动产生随机数后构建相应的数学模型,再通过编程计算得到最后结果。该方法既为概率论的教学带来了创新性思维,也为当前的教师提出了新的挑战。     

现代经济增长与教育发展的数学模型解析

人力资本是现代社会生产的决定因素.人力资本提高可使社会生产效益指数增长.各个学龄阶段的生均教育投入,都应随着科技知识的指数增长而增长.我国走科技先行、可持续发展的道路,2020年的高等教育毛入学率应达到50％,实现高等教育的普及化,公共教育经费占GDP的比重要在2012年达到4％的基础上继续提高,并在2020年达到4.6％至4.7％,以带动全社会的教育投入占GDP比重提高到7％.     

Measuring Production and Irrigation Efficiencies of Rice Farms: Evidence from the Punjab Province,Pakistan

We employ a non‐parametric approach, data envelopment analysis, to estimate the technical and irrigation efficiency of rice farms in the Punjab Province of Pakistan. We use a cross‐sectional dataset of 80 rice growers, including 45 tube‐well owners and 35 water buyers. Mean technical efficiency scores show that tube‐well owners and water buyers are operating at fairly high efficiency levels, indicating that access to technology is not a major constraint. However, irrigation inefficiency is pronounced, with water buyers being more inefficient than tube‐well owners. A bootstrap truncated regression is used to investigate the determinants of technical and irrigation efficiency. We suggest that groundwater management policies should be designed to address efficiency enhancing factors such as knowledge of crop water consumption requirement, better credit opportunities, outreach extension services and training programs.     

The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar

We examine the influence of rapid growth in China's money supply on the US dollar within a framework of monetary models of exchange rates. We develop out-of-sample forecasts of the US dollar exchange rate using US and global data on price level, output, and interest rates, and money supply data for the US, China, and the rest of the world for the period 1996–2013. Monetary model forecasts significantly outperform a random walk forecast in terms of mean squared forecast error in the long run. A monetary error correction model with sticky prices performs best. Rolling sample analysis indicates changes over time in the influence of Chinese money supply in forecasting the US dollar. The expectation is that rapid money growth in China would increase the demand for dollars thus raising the value of the dollar, yet our forecasts are to the contrary for the mid 2000s. This is consistent with anticipation of renminbi appreciation under China’s managed exchange rate, which made holding renminbi more attractive. With the break from a dollar peg in 2005 and subsequent currency appreciation, the distortion was alleviated and the forecast direction for the dollar became as expected.     

Socioeconomic Determinants of Child Health: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

This paper characterizes the socioeconomic determinants of child health using height‐for‐age z‐score (HAZ), a long‐run measure of chronic nutritional deficiency. We construct a panel data that follows children between ages 3 and 59 months in 1993 through the 1997 and 2000 waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey. We use this data to identify the various child‐level, household‐level and community‐level factors that affect children's health. Our findings indicate that household income has a large and statistically significant role in explaining improvements in HAZ. We also find a strong positive association between parental height and HAZ. At the community level, we find that provision of electricity and the availability of paved roads are positively associated with improvements in HAZ. Finally, in comparison to community‐level factors, household‐level characteristics play a large role in explaining the variation in HAZ. These findings suggest that policies that address the demand‐side constraints have greater potential to improve children's health outcomes in the future.     

Neighborhood Effects and Regional Poverty Traps in Rural China

The present paper investigates how neighborhood effects are connected to chronic poverty. We examine a large sample of groups of households and find that neighborhood effects are significant in a majority of groups, especially in the poorest groups. People living in poor communities tend to suffer from poverty over time. It is of theoretical and empirical importance to explore how neighborhood effects are interrelated with chronic poverty and the channels through which this occurs. Unlike other econometric analyses, we establish a multilevel econometric model to show that： （i） it is difficult for an individual living in a neighborhood with a high proportion of agricultural labor, low education levels, and poor transport and telecommunication infrastructure to escape from poverty traps; （ii） neighborhood effects dominate in poor communities; and （iii） although poverty is affected by group-level factors, individual factors still play a dominant role in regards to escaping poverty when income surpasses a threshold level Therefore, policy priority should be given to providing social protection and public services, especially in poor rural areas.     

环境税的生态补偿效应分析

环境税作为解决负外部性的一个重要手段,在生态补偿过程中发挥着重要作用。本文从经济效率、收入分配、就业、社会福利等几个方面分析了环境税的生态补偿效应,从而为我国生态环境税制的建立健全提供一定的理论依据。     

情感乡村模式与璧山县乡村旅游实践研究

＂快乐经济＂、＂幸福经济＂等可统称为＂情感经济＂,它为我们提供了＂可触摸＂情感的思维。在对情感经济回顾和＂情感乡村＂概念界定基础上,认为情感经济可用于乡村旅游实践。在璧山县＂情感乡村＂旅游发展实践中,通过挖掘＂情感乡村＂旅游元素、分析＂情感乡村＂旅游市场,提出快乐乡村、幸福乡村、浪漫乡村以及和谐乡村的乡村旅游项目设计理念,得出＂情感旅游＂是乡村旅游发展重要方向的结论。     

西方经济强国模式类型及中国特色经济发展模式的思考

历史上的九个经济强国可分为三种类型,按其特色大致分为四种崛起模式;改革开放以来,形成中的有中国特色的经济发展模式创造了世界经济发展史上奇迹;正在形成中的有中国特色的经济发展模式的已具有六个方面的本质特征;重视中国经济发展模式成长中的困境;加大制度创新,突破发展障碍。