全球多边贸易体制下的博弈策略与效益

经济全球化进程加深了国家之间的相互依存,各国进行着多边、区域、双边、单边各个层次的全方位政治经济博弈,国际和国内各种因素相互影响,参与各方最终均获得博弈收益。从结果来看,WTO成功地推进了全球贸易自由化的进程,虽然总体而言成员国都获取了收益,但利益分配并不均衡。从各成员贸易自由化的经验来看,不同的国家在不同的时期和不同的背景之下,其绩效大相径庭。为此,在对美国、欧盟、日本、印度等国在全球多边贸易体制下的博弈策略和效果进行比较的基础上,综述发展中经济体面临的挑战及"反边缘化"努力,提出了中国如何确保从多边博弈中获益。     

政府补贴下考虑销售努力的绿色供应链决策研究

在政府给予绿色补贴的情况下,考虑企业销售努力对绿色供应链决策的影响.以一个制造商和零售商构成的二级绿色供应链为研究对象,建立制造商主导和零售商主导的不同权力结构下的绿色供应链决策模型.通过对比分析不同模型决策,进一步采取算例分析进行验证,为企业实施绿色供应链管理提出相关建议.研究结果表明:政府绿色度补贴系数改变了产品绿色度、批发价格、销售努力、零售商利润、制造商利润以及供应链总体的利润;销售努力的投入会影响产品的批发价格以及零售商利润;无论是否考虑销售努力,集中决策下,供应链的效率总是大于分散决策下的效率;零售商主导的分散决策下,供应链效率高于制造商主导时的供应链的效率.     

Green consumption behavior prediction based on fan-shaped search mechanism fruit fly algorithm optimized neural network

Predicting consumption behavior is very important for adjusting supplier production plans and enterprise marketing activities. Conventional statistical methods are unable to accurately predict green consumption behavior because it is characterized by multivariate nonlinear interactions. The paper proposes an optimized fruit fly algorithm (FOA) and extreme learning machine (ELM) model for consumption behavior prediction. First, to address the problem of uneven search direction of FOA leading to insufficient search ability and low efficiency, the paper proposes a sector search mechanism instead of a random search mechanism to improve the global search ability and convergence speed of FOA. Second, to address the issue that the initial weights and hidden layer bias values of the ELM are randomly generated, which affects the learning efficiency and generalization of the ELM, the paper uses an improved FOA to optimize the weights and bias values of ELM for improving the prediction accuracy. Taking the green vegetable consumption behavior of Beijing residents as an example, the results show the optimization of the initial weight and threshold of ELM by the GA, PSO, FOA, and SFOA, the prediction accuracy of the GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, FOA-ELM, and SFOA-ELM models all surpass those of ELM. Compared with BPNN, GRNN, ELM, GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, and FOA-ELM models, the RMSE value of SFOA-ELM was decreased by 9.45%, 8.40%, 11.89%, 5.84%, 2.22%, and 2.69%, respectively. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the SFOA-ELM model in green consumption behavior prediction and provide new ideas for the accurate prediction of consumption behaviors of other green products with similar characteristics.     

Mitigating panic buying behavior in the epidemic: An evolutionary game perspective

The panic buying behavior under public health emergencies will lead to many adverse consequences, such as material waste, price fluctuation and uneven distribution of epidemic prevention materials, which will pose a threat to the social stability and economic development. In this paper, we construct a tripartite game model to explore the strategic choices of the public, merchants and the government in order to effectively respond to the panic buying behavior in the epidemic. The results demonstrate that: (1) Eight evolutionary stable strategies emerge in the panic buying events. The worst scenario can be improved by adjusting some relevant parameters. (2) The probability of the public choosing the strategy of “not involving in panic buying” depends on the potential benefits and losses of snapping up, rather than the extent of price rising. (3) The probability of merchants choosing the strategy of “not bid up price” depends on the intangible benefits. (4) The probability of the government choosing the strategy of “active supervision” depends on the supervision costs and government credibility, rather than the amount of fines. In addition, strategic suggestions to mitigate panic buying behavior are put forward from the perspective of each stakeholder.     

An evolutionary Cournot oligopoly model with imitators and perfect foresight best responders

We consider the competition among quantity setting players in a linear evolutionary environment. To set their outputs, players adopt, alternatively, the best response rule having perfect foresight or an imitative rule. Players are allowed to change their behavior through an evolutionary mechanism according to which the rule with better performance will attract more followers. The relevant stationary state of the model describes a scenario where players produce at the Cournot‐Nash level. Due to the presence of imitative behavior, we find that the number of players and implementation costs, needed to the best response exploitation, have an ambiguous role in determining the stability properties of the equilibrium and double stability thresholds can be observed. Differently, the role of the intensity of choice, representing the evolutionary propensity to switch to the most profitable rule, has a destabilizing role, in line with the common occurrence in evolutionary models. The global analysis of the model reveals that increasing values of the intensity of choice parameter determine increasing dynamic complexities for the internal attractor representing a population where both decision mechanisms coexist.     

Depletion of psychological,financial, and social resources in the hospitality sector during the pandemic

This study details how psychological, financial, and social factors shape employee deviant interpersonal behaviors during a pandemic. Data were collected with a survey of 372 front-line employees of hotels and analyzed with PLS-SEM. The findings showed social disconnectedness and perceived risk of unemployment leads to perceived isolation, which further creates depression in employees. The findings also showed that depression is positively related to employee deviance. Financial strain is a major cause of perceived isolation, depression, and deviant behaviors among front-line employees. Results also proved that social support reduces fear of isolation, depression, and employee deviance. This study provides guidelines that hotels need to understand the psychological stance of employees and design policies to overcome employee perceived fears and psychological disorders.     

Does china income FSDs follow Benford? A comparison between Chinese income first significant digit distribution with Benford distribution

Since Benford’s law is an empirical phenomenon that occurs in a range of data sets, this raises the question as to whether or not the same thing might be true in terms of the Chinese income distribution data. We focus on the first significant digit (FSD) distribution of Chinese micro income data from the 2005 Inter-Census sample, which corresponds to 1% of Chinese population and other micro income data from the China family panel studies (CFPS) and Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS). We use information theoretic-entropy based methods to investigate the degree to which Benford’s FSD law is consistent with the FSD of Chinese income data and our findings suggest consistency between the Chinese FSD income distribution and Benford’s distribution. The close connection between the two distributions has implications for the quality of the sample of Chinese micro data.     

Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects

Demand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP), but the effects of sales promotions can be difficult to forecast. Typically, a baseline statistical forecast is judgmentally adjusted on receipt of information from different departments. However, much of this information either has no predictive value or its value is unknown. Research into base rate discounting has suggested that such information may distract forecasters from the average uplift and reduce accuracy. This has been investigated in situations in which forecasters were able to adjust the statistical forecasts for promotions via a forecasting support system (FSS). In two ecologically valid experiments, forecasters were provided with the mean level of promotion uplift, a baseline statistical forecast, and quantitative and qualitative information. However, the forecasters were distracted from the base rate and misinterpreted the information available to them. These findings have important implications for the design of organizational S&OP processes, and for the implementation of FSSs.     

Analysis of the effect of charging infrastructure design on electric taxi driving profiles: A case study approach on the example of Singapore

Replacing conventional vehicle taxis with electric vehicles would be an efficient measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Due to the limited range and long charging times of current battery electric vehicles, it is of utmost importance to provide sufficient charging facilities. This article analyses the impact of the placement and charging power of charging stations on potential mileage and revenue of electric taxis on the example of Singapore. Therefore, we developed an agent-based electric taxi simulation model to investigate electric taxis’ driving profiles with respect to different vehicle types and charging infrastructure designs. This model is also capable of simulating conventional taxi driving profiles. The validation of these simulation results with real taxi data showed that the model is reproducing taxi driving profiles with high accuracy in great detail. We found out that electric taxis could reach the same mileage and revenue as conventional taxis if charging with a power of 160?kW is possible. Furthermore, we discovered that waiting times for available charging stations have a stronger effect on revenue than the length of detours to reach charging stations. Based on these findings, we concluded that it is more important to reduce waiting times by placing sufficient numbers of charging stations at each location before expanding the charging network by installing small numbers of charging stations at many locations.     

Consequences of Customer Dissatisfaction in Upscale and Budget Hotels: Focusing on Dissatisfied Customers’ Attitude Toward a Hotel

It is important to understand customer dissatisfaction in order to maintain a sustainable business, given that the negative effects of customer dissatisfaction in service businesses may be even greater than the positive effects of satisfaction. This study investigates customer dissatisfaction and its consequences by focusing on the mediating role of attitude toward a hotel according to different hotel classes related to customer expectation level. The results show a mediating role for attitude in the relationship between customer dissatisfaction and specific negative behavioral intentions. This study broadens our knowledge of customer dissatisfaction and the role of attitude toward a hotel in the relevant literature. The empirical findings demonstrate that regardless of hotel type, customer dissatisfaction significantly affects their attitude and their consequent negative behavioral intention.