代管县级供电企业强化管理若干举措的探讨

针对当前县级供电企业体制改革情况及管理现状,分析了代管县级供电企业改革和管理中存在的问题和矛盾,提出了巩固和深化体制改革,强化管理,提升企业效益的若干举措。在妥善处理与地方政府的关系的前提下着重强化代管现状下的第一责任地位;开拓电力市场、夯实财务基础管理、坚持依法治企。     

Owner-occupied homes,income-producing properties,and REITs as inflation hedges: Empirical findings

New evidence on the correlation patterns of various real estate returns with inflation is presented. Returns on a wide array of real estate, nonresidential as well as residential, are investigated. Stock and bond returns are also analyzed for comparison purposes. Extensive heterogeneity is found in real estate return correlations with inflation. Nonresidential property returns are most strongly positively correlated with inflation, although the appreciation in owner-occupied homes is also positively associated with inflation. However, REIT returns tend to be strongly negatively correlated with inflation. In this respect, they look more like traditional stocks and bonds than any other type of real estate. Finally, new evidence on return correlations with energy prices is also presented. Nonresidential real estate performs best here, too, although no real estate asset fully compensates investors for adverse energy price shocks.     

Jump-Dependent Model for Optimal Index Futures Hedging in Five Major Asian Stock Markets

This article develops a jump-dependent model to capture the dependences between spot and futures returns and their jumps simultaneously, named JD model. We examine hedging performance of the presenting JD model for the futures contracts of Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. The results have shown that the JD model has better out-of-sample performance than the OLS for Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Since these three markets have higher jump dependence between spot and futures, we consider that jump dependence plays an important role in hedging performance. The higher jump dependence means spot and futures markets move more closely when unusual news reveals itself and thus futures could hedge the spot more effectively when extreme unusual news arrives.     

Risk spillovers and portfolio management between developed and BRICS stock markets

This paper investigates spillover effects and portfolio diversification between the four major developed stock markets (USA, Europe, Japan and Asia) and five of the most important emerging stock markets known as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). To this end, we apply the multivariate DECO-FIEGARCH model to daily spot indices during the period 1998–2016. The results reveal a significant and asymmetric long memory process for both the developed and the BRICS markets. Moreover, we find a significant variability in the time-varying conditional correlations between the considered markets during both bull and bear markets, particularly from early 2007 to summer 2008. Additionally, we analyze the optimal portfolio weights, time-varying hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness based on the estimates of the model. The results underline the importance of overweighting the optimal portfolios with stocks from the developed countries over those from the BRICS. Finally, we assess the practical implications for mixed developed-BRICS stock portfolios, based on finding strong evidence of diversification benefits and downside risk reductions that confirm the usefulness of using developed market stocks in the BRICS stock portfolio risk management.     

Ex Ante Hedging Effectiveness of UK Stock Index Futures Contracts: Evidence for the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 Contracts

Ex ante hedging effectiveness of the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 index futures contracts is examined for a range of portfolios, consisting of stock market indexes and professionally managed portfolios (investment trust companies). Previous studies which focused on ex post hedging performance using spot portfolios that mirror market indexes are shown to overstate the risk reduction potential of index futures. Although ex ante hedge ratios are found to be characterised by intertemporal instability, ex ante hedging performance of direct hedges and cross hedges approaches that of the ex post benchmark when hedge ratios are estimated using a sufficient window size.     

中国燃料油期货的套期保值比率与绩效研究

文章首次对自2004年上市以来的SHFE燃料油期货的多期限合约的套期保值比率与绩效进行研究.给出了一个寻求多期限合约的最优套期保值比率的新方法.为克服数据量较小的困难,文章运用新技术--协整序列分解模型进行研究,采用更一般的数据选取方法,发现不同的燃料油期、现货价格序列(日、周和二周)均存在显著的协整关系,在此基础上得到任意期限的最优套期保值比率.结果发现:中国SHFE燃料油期货市场发展良好,其套期保值效果比SHFE铜期货差、比SHFE天然橡胶要好,有望成为世界燃料油定价中心之一.     

The Style Consistency of Hedge Funds

This study examines the style classification and the style consistency of hedge funds using a new proprietary database over the period May 1989 to April 1999. First, a hard clustering procedure is applied to classify hedge funds into homogeneous groups. It is shown that the methodology is robust and can be used to build stable hedge funds indexes. The method performs equally well as the principal component analysis in explaining in‐ and out‐of‐sample cross‐sectional hedge funds' returns. Second, we extend hard to fuzzy cluster memberships, relaxing the full assignment of the funds to individual clusters. We apply the fuzzy clustering methodology to estimate hedge funds' probabilistic exposure to various styles. We introduce three consistency indicators to quantify the hedge fund managers' style opportunism levels. We finally document that there is no evidence that style consistency leads to superior hedge funds' performance.     

Conditional Properties of Hedge Funds: Evidence from Daily Returns*

Using daily returns on a set of hedge fund indices, we study (i) the properties of the indices' conditional density functions and (ii) the presence of asymmetries in conditional correlations between hedge fund indices and other investments and between hedge fund indices themselves. We use the SNP approach to obtain estimates of conditional densities of hedge fund returns and then proceed to examine their properties. In general, a nonparametric GARCH(1,1) model appears to provide the best fit for all strategies. We find that the conditional third and fourth moments are significantly affected by changes in the current volatility of returns on hedge fund indices. We examine changes in the conditional probability of tail events and report significant changes in the probability of extreme events when the conditioning information changes. These results have important implications for models of hedge fund risk that rely on probability of tail events. We formally test for the presence of asymmetries in conditional correlations to determine if there is contagion between hedge funds and other investments and between various hedge fund indices in extreme down markets versus extreme up markets. We generally do not find strong evidence in support of asymmetric correlations.     

Hedging performance of multiscale hedge ratios

In this study, the wavelet multiscale model is applied to selected assets to hedge time-dependent exposure of an agent with a preference for a certain hedging horizon. Based on the in-sample and out-of-sample portfolio variances, the wavelet-based generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model produces the lowest variances. From a utility standpoint, wavelet networks combined with GARCH have the highest utility. Finally, the wavelet-GARCH model has the lowest minimum capital risk requirements. Overall, the wavelet GARCH and wavelet networks offer improvements over traditional hedging models.     

利用天然橡胶期现货价差异常波动规律服务橡胶产业发展大局

随着国内天胶期货市场的逐步完善和迅猛发展，期货市场价格发现和规避风险功能日益彰显，套期保值工具为国内众多的天胶生产、贸易以及消费企业提供了规避市场风险的良好途径，也不乏成功案例。该文在回顾历史走势的基础上，着重从期现价差本身的运行特征人手，旨在发现期现价差异常波动规律，为广垦橡胶集团开展贸易型套保业务提供可行建议。